Bayesian Analysis of Linear Inverse Problems with Applications in Economics and Finance

In my PhD thesis I propose a Bayesian nonparametric estimation method for structural econometric models where the functional parameter of interest describes the economic agent's behavior. The structural parameter is characterized as the solution of a functional equation, or by using more technical words, as the solution of an inverse problem that can be either ill-posed or well-posed. From a Bayesian point of view, the parameter of interest is a random function and the solution to the inference problem is the posterior distribution of this parameter. A regular version of the posterior distribution in functional spaces is characterized. However, the infinite dimension of the considered spaces causes a problem of non continuity of the solution and then a problem of inconsistency, from a frequentist point of view, of the posterior distribution (i.e. problem of ill-posedness). The contribution of this essay is to propose new methods to deal with this problem of ill-posedness. The first one consists in adopting a Tikhonov regularization scheme in the construction of the posterior distribution so that I end up with a new object that I call regularized posterior distribution and that I guess it is solution of the inverse problem. The second approach consists in specifying a prior distribution on the parameter of interest of the g-prior type. Then, I detect a class of models for which the prior distribution is able to correct for the ill-posedness also in infinite dimensional problems. I study asymptotic properties of these proposed solutions and I prove that, under some regularity condition satisfied by the true value of the parameter of interest, they are consistent in a "frequentist" sense. Once I have set the general theory, I apply my bayesian nonparametric methodology to different estimation problems. First, I apply this estimator to deconvolution and to hazard rate, density and regression estimation. Then, I consider the estimation of an Instrumental Regression that is useful in micro-econometrics when we have to deal with problems of endogeneity. Finally, I develop an application in finance: I get the bayesian estimator for the equilibrium asset pricing functional by using the Euler equation defined in the Lucas'(1978) tree-type models.

Enhanced Mixed Integer Programming Techniques and Routing Problems

Mixed integer programming is up today one of the most widely used techniques for dealing with hard optimization problems. On the one side, many practical optimization problems arising from real-world applications (such as, e.g., scheduling, project planning, transportation, telecommunications, economics and finance, timetabling, etc) can be easily and effectively formulated as Mixed Integer linear Programs (MIPs). On the other hand, 50 and more years of intensive research has dramatically improved on the capability of the current generation of MIP solvers to tackle hard problems in practice. However, many questions are still open and not fully understood, and the mixed integer programming community is still more than active in trying to answer some of these questions. As a consequence, a huge number of papers are continuously developed and new intriguing questions arise every year. When dealing with MIPs, we have to distinguish between two different scenarios. The first one happens when we are asked to handle a general MIP and we cannot assume any special structure for the given problem. In this case, a Linear Programming (LP) relaxation and some integrality requirements are all we have for tackling the problem, and we are ``forced" to use some general purpose techniques. The second one happens when mixed integer programming is used to address a somehow structured problem. In this context, polyhedral analysis and other theoretical and practical considerations are typically exploited to devise some special purpose techniques. This thesis tries to give some insights in both the above mentioned situations. The first part of the work is focused on general purpose cutting planes, which are probably the key ingredient behind the success of the current generation of MIP solvers. Chapter 1 presents a quick overview of the main ingredients of a branch-and-cut algorithm, while Chapter 2 recalls some results from the literature in the context of disjunctive cuts and their connections with Gomory mixed integer cuts. Chapter 3 presents a theoretical and computational investigation of disjunctive cuts. In particular, we analyze the connections between different normalization conditions (i.e., conditions to truncate the cone associated with disjunctive cutting planes) and other crucial aspects as cut rank, cut density and cut strength. We give a theoretical characterization of weak rays of the disjunctive cone that lead to dominated cuts, and propose a practical method to possibly strengthen those cuts arising from such weak extremal solution. Further, we point out how redundant constraints can affect the quality of the generated disjunctive cuts, and discuss possible ways to cope with them. Finally, Chapter 4 presents some preliminary ideas in the context of multiple-row cuts. Very recently, a series of papers have brought the attention to the possibility of generating cuts using more than one row of the simplex tableau at a time. Several interesting theoretical results have been presented in this direction, often revisiting and recalling other important results discovered more than 40 years ago. However, is not clear at all how these results can be exploited in practice. As stated, the chapter is a still work-in-progress and simply presents a possible way for generating two-row cuts from the simplex tableau arising from lattice-free triangles and some preliminary computational results. The second part of the thesis is instead focused on the heuristic and exact exploitation of integer programming techniques for hard combinatorial optimization problems in the context of routing applications. Chapters 5 and 6 present an integer linear programming local search algorithm for Vehicle Routing Problems (VRPs). The overall procedure follows a general destroy-and-repair paradigm (i.e., the current solution is first randomly destroyed and then repaired in the attempt of finding a new improved solution) where a class of exponential neighborhoods are iteratively explored by heuristically solving an integer programming formulation through a general purpose MIP solver. Chapters 7 and 8 deal with exact branch-and-cut methods. Chapter 7 presents an extended formulation for the Traveling Salesman Problem with Time Windows (TSPTW), a generalization of the well known TSP where each node must be visited within a given time window. The polyhedral approaches proposed for this problem in the literature typically follow the one which has been proven to be extremely effective in the classical TSP context. Here we present an overall (quite) general idea which is based on a relaxed discretization of time windows. Such an idea leads to a stronger formulation and to stronger valid inequalities which are then separated within the classical branch-and-cut framework. Finally, Chapter 8 addresses the branch-and-cut in the context of Generalized Minimum Spanning Tree Problems (GMSTPs) (i.e., a class of NP-hard generalizations of the classical minimum spanning tree problem). In this chapter, we show how some basic ideas (and, in particular, the usage of general purpose cutting planes) can be useful to improve on branch-and-cut methods proposed in the literature.

Securitization and Special Purpose Vehicles in an International Setting: a Systemic View

The present work tries to display a comprehensive and comparative study of the different legal and regulatory problems involved in international securitization transactions. First, an introduction to securitization is provided, with the basic elements of the transaction, followed by the different varieties of it, including dynamic securitization and synthetic securitization structures. Together with this introduction to the intricacies of the structure, a insight into the influence of securitization in the financial and economic crisis of 2007-2009 is provided too; as well as an overview of the process of regulatory competition and cooperation that constitutes the framework for the international aspects of securitization. The next Chapter focuses on the aspects that constitute the foundations of structured finance: the inception of the vehicle, and the transfer of risks associated to the securitized assets, with particular emphasis on the validity of those elements, and how a securitization transaction could be threatened at its root. In this sense, special importance is given to the validity of the trust as an instrument of finance, to the assignment of future receivables or receivables in block, and to the importance of formalities for the validity of corporations, trusts, assignments, etc., and the interaction of such formalities contained in general corporate, trust and assignment law with those contemplated under specific securitization regulations. Then, the next Chapter (III) focuses on creditor protection aspects. As such, we provide some insights on the debate on the capital structure of the firm, and its inadequacy to assess the financial soundness problems inherent to securitization. Then, we proceed to analyze the importance of rules on creditor protection in the context of securitization. The corollary is in the rules in case of insolvency. In this sense, we divide the cases where a party involved in the transaction goes bankrupt, from those where the transaction itself collapses. Finally, we focus on the scenario where a substance over form analysis may compromise some of the elements of the structure (notably the limited liability of the sponsor, and/or the transfer of assets) by means of veil piercing, substantive consolidation, or recharacterization theories. Once these elements have been covered, the next Chapters focus on the regulatory aspects involved in the transaction. Chapter IV is more referred to “market” regulations, i.e. those concerned with information disclosure and other rules (appointment of the indenture trustee, and elaboration of a rating by a rating agency) concerning the offering of asset-backed securities to the public. Chapter V, on the other hand, focuses on “prudential” regulation of the entity entrusted with securitizing assets (the so-called Special Purpose vehicle), and other entities involved in the process. Regarding the SPV, a reference is made to licensing requirements, restriction of activities and governance structures to prevent abuses. Regarding the sponsor of the transaction, a focus is made on provisions on sound originating practices, and the servicing function. Finally, we study accounting and banking regulations, including the Basel I and Basel II Frameworks, which determine the consolidation of the SPV, and the de-recognition of the securitized asset from the originating company’s balance-sheet, as well as the posterior treatment of those assets, in particular by banks. Chapters VI-IX are concerned with liability matters. Chapter VI is an introduction to the different sources of liability. Chapter VII focuses on the liability by the SPV and its management for the information supplied to investors, the management of the asset pool, and the breach of loyalty (or fiduciary) duties. Chapter VIII rather refers to the liability of the originator as a result of such information and statements, but also as a result of inadequate and reckless originating or servicing practices. Chapter IX finally focuses on third parties entrusted with the soundness of the transaction towards the market, the so-called gatekeepers. In this respect, we make special emphasis on the liability of indenture trustees, underwriters and rating agencies. Chapters X and XI focus on the international aspects of securitization. Chapter X contains a conflicts of laws analysis of the different aspects of structured finance. In this respect, a study is made of the laws applicable to the vehicle, to the transfer of risks (either by assignment or by means of derivatives contracts), to liability issues; and a study is also made of the competent jurisdiction (and applicable law) in bankruptcy cases; as well as in cases where a substance-over-form is performed. Then, special attention is also devoted to the role of financial and securities regulations; as well as to their territorial limits, and extraterritoriality problems involved. Chapter XI supplements the prior Chapter, for it analyzes the limits to the States’ exercise of regulatory power by the personal and “market” freedoms included in the US Constitution or the EU Treaties. A reference is also made to the (still insufficient) rules from the WTO Framework, and their significance to the States’ recognition and regulation of securitization transactions.

International openness in transition countries: further evidence on foreign direct investment

The thesis focuses on the process of international openness of Transition Countries. This study provides a theoretical analysis based on reference literature, and an empirical analysis which is aimed at estimating some main effects of Foreign Direct Investment. Transition has represented a highly complex phenomenon, characterized by several aspects, whose interaction has shaped the developmental path of each country involved. Although the thesis focuses on economic issues it is outstanding to underline that Transition implies political, institutional, and even social deep changes, which must be taken into consideration in the general overview of the contex. The empirical part has been developed along two different ways: a country analysis and a firm analysis, thus allowing to widen the study and delve deeper into the use of econometric instruments. More specifically, in the first empirical stage both static (Fixed Effects) and dynamic (LSDV Corrected) methodologies have been implemented, whereas in the second stage the Cox Proportional Function has been chosen in order to handle with censored data.

Ni una más. International cooperation against gender-based discrimination: the femicide case in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico

The femicide in Ciudad Juárez is a story made of extreme violence against women for different reasons, by different actors, under different circumstances, and following different behavioural patterns. All within a gender discrimination frame based on the idea that women are inferior, interchangeable and disposable according to the patriarchal hierarchy still present in Mexico, but strongly reinforced by a sort of conspiracy of silence provoked either by the high impunity rate, the governmental incompetence to solve the crimes, or the general indifference of the population. It is the story of hundreds of kidnapped, raped, in many cases tortured, and murdered young women in the border between Mexico and the United States. The murders first came into light in 1993 and up to now young women continue to “disappear” without any hope of bringing the perpetrators to justice, stopping impunity, convicting the assassins, and bringing justice to the families of the deceased girls and women. The main questions about femicide in Ciudad Juárez seem to be: why were they brutally assassinated?, why most of the crimes have not been solved yet?, why and how is Ciudad Juárez different from other border cities with the same characteristics?, which powers are behind those crimes in a city that implies mainly women as its labor force, and which has the lowest unemployment rate in the whole country? But there are also many other questions dealing more with the context, the Juarences’ lifestyles, the eventual hidden powers behind the crimes, the possible murderers’ reasons, the response of the local civil society, or the international community actions to fight against femicide there, among many other things, that are still waiting for an answer and that this paper will ‘narrate’ in order to provide a holistic panorama for the readers. But above all there is the need to remember that every single woman or girl assassinated there had a name, an identity, a family, a story to be told time after time and as many times as necessary, in order to avoid accepting these crimes just as statistics, as cold numbers that might make us forget the human tragedy that has been flagellating the city since 1993. We must remember as well that their deaths express gender oppression, the inequality of the relations between what is male and what is female, a manifestation of domination, terror, social extermination, patriarchal hegemony, social class and impunity. The city is the perfect mirror where all the contradictions of globalization get reflected. It is there where all the globalization evils are present and survive by sucking their women’s blood. It is a city where some concepts such as gender, migration and power are closely related with a negative connotation.

International cooperation in endourology: percutaneous and flexible ureteroscopic treatment of lower pole kidney stones

Introduction Lower pole kidney stones represent at time a challenge for the urologist. The gold standard treatment for intrarenal stones <2 cm is Extracorporeal Shock Wave Lithotripsy (ESWL) while for those >2 cm is Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy (PCNL). The success rate of ESWL, however, decreases when it is employed for lower pole stones, and this is particularly true in the presence of narrow calices or acute infundibular angles. Studies have proved that ureteroscopy (URS) is an efficacious alternative to ESWL for lower pole stones <2 cm, but this is not reflected by either the European or the American guidelines. The aim of this study is to present the results of a large series of flexible ureteroscopies and PCNLs for lower pole kidney stones from high-volume centers, in order to provide more evidences on the potential indications of the flexible ureteroscopy for the treatment of kidney stones. Materials and Methods A database was created and the participating centres retrospectively entered their data relating to the percutaneous and flexible ureteroscopic management of lower pole kidney stones. Patients included were treated between January 2005 and January 2010. Variables analyzed included case load number, preoperative and postoperative imaging, stone burden, anaesthesia (general vs. spinal), type of lithotripter, access location and size, access dilation type, ureteral access sheath use, visual clarity, operative time, stone-free rate, complication rate, hospital stay, analgesic requirement and follow-up time. Stone-free rate was defined as absence of residual fragments or presence of a single fragment <2 mm in size at follow-up imaging. Primary end-point was to test the efficacy and safety of flexible URS for the treatment of lower pole stones; the same descriptive analysis was conducted for the PCNL approach, as considered the gold standard for the treatment of lower pole kidney stones. In this setting, no statistical analysis was conducted owing to the different selection criteria of the patients. Secondary end-point consisted in matching the results of stone-free rates, operative time and complications rate of flexible URS and PCNL in the subgroup of patients harbouring lower pole kidney stones between 1 and 2 cm in the higher diameter. Results A total 246 patients met the criteria for inclusion. There were 117 PCNLs (group 1) and 129 flexible URS (group 2). Ninety-six percent of cases were diagnosed by CT KUB scan. Mean stone burden was 175±160 and 50±62 mm2 for groups 1 and 2, respectively. General anaesthesia was induced in 100 % and 80% of groups 1 and 2, respectively. Pneumo-ultrasonic energy was used in 84% of cases in the PCNL group, and holmium laser in 95% of the cases in the flexible URS group. The mean operative time was 76.9±44 and 63±37 minutes for groups 1 and 2 respectively. There were 12 major complications (11%) in group 1 (mainly Grade II complications according to Clavidien classification) and no major complications in group 2. Mean hospital stay was 5.7 and 2.6 days for groups 1 and 2, respectively. Ninety-five percent of group 1 and 52% of group 2 required analgesia for a period longer than 24 hours. Intraoperative stone-free rate after a single treatment was 88.9% for group 1 and 79.1% for group 2. Overall, 6% of group 1 and 14.7% of group 2 required a second look procedure. At 3 months, stone-free rates were 90.6% and 92.2% for groups 1 and 2, respectively, as documented by follow-up CT KUB (22%) or combination of intra-venous pyelogram, regular KUB and/or kidney ultrasound (78%). In the subanalysis conducted comparing 82 vs 65 patients who underwent PCNL and flexible URS for lower pole stones between 1 and 2 cm, intreoperative stone-free rates were 88% vs 68% (p= 0.03), respectively; anyway, after an auxiliary procedure which was necessary in 6% of the cases in group 1 and 23% in group 2 (p=0.03), stone-free rates at 3 months were not statistically significant (91.5% vs 89.2%; p=0.6). Conversely, the patients undergoing PCNL maintained a higher risk of complications during the procedure, with 9 cases observed in this group versus 0 in the group of patients treated with URS (p=0.01) Conclusions These data highlight the value of flexible URS as a very effective and safe option for the treatment of kidney stones; thanks to the latest generation of flexible devices, this new technical approach seems to be a valid alternative in particular for the treatment of lower pole kidney stones less than 2 cm. In high-volume centres and in the hands of skilled surgeons, this technique can approach the stone-free rates achievable through PCNL in lower pole stones between 1 and 2 cm, with a very low risk of complications. Furthermore, the results confirm the high success rate and relatively low morbidity of modern PCNL for lower pole stones, with no difference detectable between the prone and supine position.

Quantifying the Economics of Medical Malpractice - A View from a Civil Law Perspective

Life is full of uncertainties. Legal rules should have a clear intention, motivation and purpose in order to diminish daily uncertainties. However, practice shows that their consequences are complex and hard to predict. For instance, tort law has the general objectives of deterring future negligent behavior and compensating the victims of someone else's negligence. Achieving these goals are particularly difficult in medical malpractice cases. To start with, when patients search for medical care they are typically sick in the first place. In case harm materializes during the treatment, it might be very hard to assess if it was due to substandard medical care or to the patient's poor health conditions. Moreover, the practice of medicine has a positive externality on the society, meaning that the design of legal rules is crucial: for instance, it should not result in physicians avoiding practicing their activity just because they are afraid of being sued even when they acted according to the standard level of care. The empirical literature on medical malpractice has been developing substantially in the past two decades, with the American case being the most studied one. Evidence from civil law tradition countries is more difficult to find. The aim of this thesis is to contribute to the empirical literature on medical malpractice, using two civil law countries as a case-study: Spain and Italy. The goal of this thesis is to investigate, in the first place, some of the consequences of having two separate sub-systems (administrative and civil) coexisting within the same legal system, which is common in civil law tradition countries with a public national health system (such as Spain, France and Portugal). When this holds, different procedures might apply depending on the type of hospital where the injury took place (essentially whether it is a public hospital or a private hospital). Therefore, a patient injured in a public hospital should file a claim in administrative courts while a patient suffering an identical medical accident should file a claim in civil courts. A natural question that the reader might pose is why should both administrative and civil courts decide medical malpractice cases? Moreover, can this specialization of courts influence how judges decide medical malpractice cases? In the past few years, there was a general concern with patient safety, which is currently on the agenda of several national governments. Some initiatives have been taken at the international level, with the aim of preventing harm to patients during treatment and care. A negligently injured patient might present a claim against the health care provider with the aim of being compensated for the economic loss and for pain and suffering. In several European countries, health care is mainly provided by a public national health system, which means that if a patient harmed in a public hospital succeeds in a claim against the hospital, public expenditures increase because the State takes part in the litigation process. This poses a problem in a context of increasing national health expenditures and public debt. In Italy, with the aim of increasing patient safety, some regions implemented a monitoring system on medical malpractice claims. However, if properly implemented, this reform shall also allow for a reduction in medical malpractice insurance costs. This thesis is organized as follows. Chapter 1 provides a review of the empirical literature on medical malpractice, where studies on outcomes and merit of claims, costs and defensive medicine are presented. Chapter 2 presents an empirical analysis of medical malpractice claims arriving to the Spanish Supreme Court. The focus is on reversal rates for civil and administrative decisions. Administrative decisions appealed by the plaintiff have the highest reversal rates. The results show a bias in lower administrative courts, which tend to focus on the State side. We provide a detailed explanation for these results, which can rely on the organization of administrative judges career. Chapter 3 assesses predictors of compensation in medical malpractice cases appealed to the Spanish Supreme Court and investigates the amount of damages attributed to patients. The results show horizontal equity between administrative and civil decisions (controlling for observable case characteristics) and vertical inequity (patients suffering more severe injuries tend to receive higher payouts). In order to execute these analyses, a database of medical malpractice decisions appealed to the Administrative and Civil Chambers of the Spanish Supreme Court from 2006 until 2009 (designated by the Spanish Supreme Court Medical Malpractice Dataset (SSCMMD)) has been created. A description of how the SSCMMD was built and of the Spanish legal system is presented as well. Chapter 4 includes an empirical investigation of the effect of a monitoring system for medical malpractice claims on insurance premiums. In Italy, some regions adopted this policy in different years, while others did not. The study uses data on insurance premiums from Italian public hospitals for the years 2001-2008. This is a significant difference as most of the studies use the insurance company as unit of analysis. Although insurance premiums have risen from 2001 to 2008, the increase was lower for regions adopting a monitoring system for medical claims. Possible implications of this system are also provided. Finally, Chapter 5 discusses the main findings, describes possible future research and concludes.

Strategic decision making in international firms: effect of top management team internationalization on international strategic decision process

In this research project, I have integrated two research streams on international strategic decisions making in international firms: upper echelons or top management teams (TMT) internationalization research and international strategic decision making process research. Both research streams in international business literature have evolved independently, but there is a potential in combining these two streams of research. The first empirical paper “TMT internationalization and international strategic decision making process: a decision level analysis of rationality, speed, and performance” explores the influence of TMT internationalization on strategic decision rationality and speed and, subsequently, their effect on international strategic decision effectiveness (performance). The results show that the internationalization of TMT is positively related to decision effectiveness and this relationship is mediated by decision rationality while the hypotheses regarding the association between TMT internationalization and decision speed, and the mediating effect of speed were not supported. The second paper “TMT internationalization and international strategic decision rationality: the mediating role of international information” of my thesis is a simple but logical extension of first paper. The first paper showed that TMT Internationalization has a significant positive effect on international strategic decision rationality. The second paper explicitly showed that TMT internationalization affect on international strategic decision rationality comes from two sources: international experience (personal international knowledge and information) and international information collected from managerial international contacts. For this research project, I have collected data from international software firms in Pakistan. My research contributes to the literature on upper echelons theory and strategic decision making in context of international business and international firms by explicitly examining the link between TMT internationalization and characteristics of strategic decisions making process (i.e. rationality and speed) in international firms and their possible mediating effect on performance.