Global and regional sea level variations in the recent past and future: insight from observations and modeling

This work is focused on the analysis of sea–level change (last century), based mainly on instrumental observations. During this period, individual components of sea–level change are investigated, both at global and regional scales. Some of the geophysical processes responsible for current sea-level change such as glacial isostatic adjustments and current melting terrestrial ice sources, have been modeled and compared with observations. A new value of global mean sea level change based of tide gauges observations has been independently assessed in 1.5 mm/year, using corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment obtained with different models as a criterion for the tide gauge selection. The long wavelength spatial variability of the main components of sea–level change has been investigated by means of traditional and new spectral methods. Complex non–linear trends and abrupt sea–level variations shown by tide gauges records have been addressed applying different approaches to regional case studies. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique has been used to analyse tide gauges records from the Adriatic Sea to ascertain the existence of cyclic sea-level variations. An Early Warning approach have been adopted to detect tipping points in sea–level records of North East Pacific and their relationship with oceanic modes. Global sea–level projections to year 2100 have been obtained by a semi-empirical approach based on the artificial neural network method. In addition, a model-based approach has been applied to the case of the Mediterranean Sea, obtaining sea-level projection to year 2050.

Oblique ionograms automatic scaling and eikonal based ray tracing

A method for automatic scaling of oblique ionograms has been introduced. This method also provides a rejection procedure for ionograms that are considered to lack sufficient information, depicting a very good success rate. Observing the Kp index of each autoscaled ionogram, can be noticed that the behavior of the autoscaling program does not depend on geomagnetic conditions. The comparison between the values of the MUF provided by the presented software and those obtained by an experienced operator indicate that the procedure developed for detecting the nose of oblique ionogram traces is sufficiently efficient and becomes much more efficient as the quality of the ionograms improves. These results demonstrate the program allows the real-time evaluation of MUF values associated with a particular radio link through an oblique radio sounding. The automatic recognition of a part of the trace allows determine for certain frequencies, the time taken by the radio wave to travel the path between the transmitter and receiver. The reconstruction of the ionogram traces, suggests the possibility of estimating the electron density between the transmitter and the receiver, from an oblique ionogram. The showed results have been obtained with a ray-tracing procedure based on the integration of the eikonal equation and using an analytical ionospheric model with free parameters. This indicates the possibility of applying an adaptive model and a ray-tracing algorithm to estimate the electron density in the ionosphere between the transmitter and the receiver An additional study has been conducted on a high quality ionospheric soundings data set and another algorithm has been designed for the conversion of an oblique ionogram into a vertical one, using Martyn's theorem. This allows a further analysis of oblique soundings, throw the use of the INGV Autoscala program for the automatic scaling of vertical ionograms.

A multi-instrumental approach to the study of equatorial ionosphere over South America

An extensive study of the morphology and the dynamics of the equatorial ionosphere over South America is presented here. A multi parametric approach is used to describe the physical characteristics of the ionosphere in the regions where the combination of the thermospheric electric field and the horizontal geomagnetic field creates the so-called Equatorial Ionization Anomalies. Ground based measurements from GNSS receivers are used to link the Total Electron Content (TEC), its spatial gradients and the phenomenon known as scintillation that can lead to a GNSS signal degradation or even to a GNSS signal ‘loss of lock’. A new algorithm to highlight the features characterizing the TEC distribution is developed in the framework of this thesis and the results obtained are validated and used to improve the performance of a GNSS positioning technique (long baseline RTK). In addition, the correlation between scintillation and dynamics of the ionospheric irregularities is investigated. By means of a software, here implemented, the velocity of the ionospheric irregularities is evaluated using high sampling rate GNSS measurements. The results highlight the parallel behaviour of the amplitude scintillation index (S4) occurrence and the zonal velocity of the ionospheric irregularities at least during severe scintillations conditions (post-sunset hours). This suggests that scintillations are driven by TEC gradients as well as by the dynamics of the ionospheric plasma. Finally, given the importance of such studies for technological applications (e.g. GNSS high-precision applications), a validation of the NeQuick model (i.e. the model used in the new GALILEO satellites for TEC modelling) is performed. The NeQuick performance dramatically improves when data from HF radar sounding (ionograms) are ingested. A custom designed algorithm, based on the image recognition technique, is developed to properly select the ingested data, leading to further improvement of the NeQuick performance.

Towards the 3D attenuation imaging of active volcanoes: methods and tests on real and simulated data

The purpose of my PhD thesis has been to face the issue of retrieving a three dimensional attenuation model in volcanic areas. To this purpose, I first elaborated a robust strategy for the analysis of seismic data. This was done by performing several synthetic tests to assess the applicability of spectral ratio method to our purposes. The results of the tests allowed us to conclude that: 1) spectral ratio method gives reliable differential attenuation (dt*) measurements in smooth velocity models; 2) short signal time window has to be chosen to perform spectral analysis; 3) the frequency range over which to compute spectral ratios greatly affects dt* measurements. Furthermore, a refined approach for the application of spectral ratio method has been developed and tested. Through this procedure, the effects caused by heterogeneities of propagation medium on the seismic signals may be removed. The tested data analysis technique was applied to the real active seismic SERAPIS database. It provided a dataset of dt* measurements which was used to obtain a three dimensional attenuation model of the shallowest part of Campi Flegrei caldera. Then, a linearized, iterative, damped attenuation tomography technique has been tested and applied to the selected dataset. The tomography, with a resolution of 0.5 km in the horizontal directions and 0.25 km in the vertical direction, allowed to image important features in the off-shore part of Campi Flegrei caldera. High QP bodies are immersed in a high attenuation body (Qp=30). The latter is well correlated with low Vp and high Vp/Vs values and it is interpreted as a saturated marine and volcanic sediments layer. High Qp anomalies, instead, are interpreted as the effects either of cooled lava bodies or of a CO2 reservoir. A pseudo-circular high Qp anomaly was detected and interpreted as the buried rim of NYT caldera.

Secondary Microseisms Characterization and Green’s Function Extraction at the Larderello-Travale Geothermal Field (Italy)

Over the past ten years, the cross-correlation of long-time series of ambient seismic noise (ASN) has been widely adopted to extract the surface-wave part of the Green’s Functions (GF). This stochastic procedure relies on the assumption that ASN wave-field is diffuse and stationary. At frequencies <1Hz, the ASN is mainly composed by surface-waves, whose origin is attributed to the sea-wave climate. Consequently, marked directional properties may be observed, which call for accurate investigation about location and temporal evolution of the ASN-sources before attempting any GF retrieval. Within this general context, this thesis is aimed at a thorough investigation about feasibility and robustness of the noise-based methods toward the imaging of complex geological structures at the local (∼10-50km) scale. The study focused on the analysis of an extended (11 months) seismological data set collected at the Larderello-Travale geothermal field (Italy), an area for which the underground geological structures are well-constrained thanks to decades of geothermal exploration. Focusing on the secondary microseism band (SM;f>0.1Hz), I first investigate the spectral features and the kinematic properties of the noise wavefield using beamforming analysis, highlighting a marked variability with time and frequency. For the 0.1-0.3Hz frequency band and during Spring- Summer-time, the SMs waves propagate with high apparent velocities and from well-defined directions, likely associated with ocean-storms in the south- ern hemisphere. Conversely, at frequencies >0.3Hz the distribution of back- azimuths is more scattered, thus indicating that this frequency-band is the most appropriate for the application of stochastic techniques. For this latter frequency interval, I tested two correlation-based methods, acting in the time (NCF) and frequency (modified-SPAC) domains, respectively yielding esti- mates of the group- and phase-velocity dispersions. Velocity data provided by the two methods are markedly discordant; comparison with independent geological and geophysical constraints suggests that NCF results are more robust and reliable.

Spatial and temporal characterisation of ground deformation recorded by geodetic techniques

A critical point in the analysis of ground displacements time series is the development of data driven methods that allow the different sources that generate the observed displacements to be discerned and characterised. A widely used multivariate statistical technique is the Principal Component Analysis (PCA), which allows reducing the dimensionality of the data space maintaining most of the variance of the dataset explained. Anyway, PCA does not perform well in finding the solution to the so-called Blind Source Separation (BSS) problem, i.e. in recovering and separating the original sources that generated the observed data. This is mainly due to the assumptions on which PCA relies: it looks for a new Euclidean space where the projected data are uncorrelated. The Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is a popular technique adopted to approach this problem. However, the independence condition is not easy to impose, and it is often necessary to introduce some approximations. To work around this problem, I use a variational bayesian ICA (vbICA) method, which models the probability density function (pdf) of each source signal using a mix of Gaussian distributions. This technique allows for more flexibility in the description of the pdf of the sources, giving a more reliable estimate of them. Here I present the application of the vbICA technique to GPS position time series. First, I use vbICA on synthetic data that simulate a seismic cycle (interseismic + coseismic + postseismic + seasonal + noise) and a volcanic source, and I study the ability of the algorithm to recover the original (known) sources of deformation. Secondly, I apply vbICA to different tectonically active scenarios, such as the 2009 L'Aquila (central Italy) earthquake, the 2012 Emilia (northern Italy) seismic sequence, and the 2006 Guerrero (Mexico) Slow Slip Event (SSE).

Analysis of slip distribution of large earthquakes oriented to tsunamigenesis characterisation

The present thesis focuses on the on-fault slip distribution of large earthquakes in the framework of tsunami hazard assessment and tsunami warning improvement. It is widely known that ruptures on seismic faults are strongly heterogeneous. In the case of tsunamigenic earthquakes, the slip heterogeneity strongly influences the spatial distribution of the largest tsunami effects along the nearest coastlines. Unfortunately, after an earthquake occurs, the so-called finite-fault models (FFM) describing the coseismic on-fault slip pattern becomes available over time scales that are incompatible with early tsunami warning purposes, especially in the near field. Our work aims to characterize the slip heterogeneity in a fast, but still suitable way. Using finite-fault models to build a starting dataset of seismic events, the characteristics of the fault planes are studied with respect to the magnitude. The patterns of the slip distribution on the rupture plane, analysed with a cluster identification algorithm, reveal a preferential single-asperity representation that can be approximated by a two-dimensional Gaussian slip distribution (2D GD). The goodness of the 2D GD model is compared to other distributions used in literature and its ability to represent the slip heterogeneity in the form of the main asperity is proven. The magnitude dependence of the 2D GD parameters is investigated and turns out to be of primary importance from an early warning perspective. The Gaussian model is applied to the 16 September 2015 Illapel, Chile, earthquake and used to compute early tsunami predictions that are satisfactorily compared with the available observations. The fast computation of the 2D GD and its suitability in representing the slip complexity of the seismic source make it a useful tool for the tsunami early warning assessments, especially for what concerns the near field.

Seismotectonic study on two strategic infrastructures in Southern Italy

With the entry into force of the latest Italian Building Code (NTC 2008, 2018), innovative criteria were provided, especially for what concerns the seismic verifications of large infrastructures. In particular, for buildings considered as strategic, such as large dams, a seismotectonic study of the site was declared necessary, which involves a re-assessment of the basic seismic hazard. This PhD project fits into this context, being part of the seismic re-evaluation process of large dams launched on a national scale following the O.P.C.M. 3274/2003, D.L. 79/2004. A full seismotectonic study in the region of two large earth dams in Southern Italy was carried out. We identified and characterized the structures that could generate earthquakes in our study area, together with the definition of the local seismic history. This information was used for the reassessment of the basic seismic hazard, using probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approaches. In recent years, fault-based models for the seismic hazard assessment have been proposed all over the world as a new emerging methodology. For this reason, we decided to test the innovative SHERIFS approach on our study area. The occasion of the seismotectonic study gave also the opportunity to focus on the characteristics of the seismic stations that provided the data for the study itself. In the context of the work presented here, we focused on the 10 stations that had been active for the longest time and we carried out a geophysical characterization, the data of which merged into a more general study on the soil-structure interaction at seismic stations and on the ways in which it could affect the SHA. Lastly, an additional experimental study on the two dams and their associated minor structures is also presented, aimed at defining their main dynamic parameters, useful for subsequent dynamic structural and geotechnical studies.

The Moho reflectivity from ambient seismic noise autocorrelations beneath the Western Alps

The lower crustal structure beneath the Western Alps -- including the Moho -- bears the signature of past and present geodynamic processes. It has been the subject of many studies until now. However, its current knowledge still leaves significant open questions. In order to derive new information, independent from previous determinations, here I wish to address this topic using a different method --- ambient seismic noise autocorrelation --- that is for the first time applied to reveal Moho depth in the Western Alps. Moho reflections are identified by picking reflectivity changes in ambient seismic noise autocorrelations. The seismic data is retrieved from more than 200 broadband seismic stations, from the China--Italy--France Alps (CIFALPS) linear seismic network, and from a subset of the AlpArray Seismic Network (AASN). The automatically-picked reflectivity changes along the CIFALPS transect in the southwestern Alps show the best results in the 0.5--1 Hz frequency band. The autocorrelation reflectivity profile of the CIFALPS transect shows a steeper subduction profile,~55 to ~70 km, of the European Plate underneath the Adriatic Plate. The dense spacing of the CIFALPS network facilitates the detection of lateral continuity of crustal structure, and of the Ivrea mantle wedge reaching shallow crustal depths in the southwestern Alps. The data of the AASN stations are filtered in the 0.4--1 and 0.5--1 Hz frequency bands. Although the majority of the stations give the same Moho depth for the different frequency bands, the few stations with different Moho depths shows the care that has to be taken when choosing the frequency band for filtering the autocorrelation stacks. The new Moho depth maps by using the AASN stations are a compilation of the first and second picked reflectivity changes. The results show the complex crust-mantle structure with clear differences between the northwestern and southwestern Alps.

Analysis of earthquakes predictability

Earthquake prediction is a complex task for scientists due to the rare occurrence of high-intensity earthquakes and their inaccessible depths. Despite this challenge, it is a priority to protect infrastructure, and populations living in areas of high seismic risk. Reliable forecasting requires comprehensive knowledge of seismic phenomena. In this thesis, the development, application, and comparison of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting methods is shown. Regarding the deterministic approach, the implementation of an alarm-based method using the occurrence of strong (fore)shocks, widely felt by the population, as a precursor signal is described. This model is then applied for retrospective prediction of Italian earthquakes of magnitude M≥5.0,5.5,6.0, occurred in Italy from 1960 to 2020. Retrospective performance testing is carried out using tests and statistics specific to deterministic alarm-based models. Regarding probabilistic models, this thesis focuses mainly on the EEPAS and ETAS models. Although the EEPAS model has been previously applied and tested in some regions of the world, it has never been used for forecasting Italian earthquakes. In the thesis, the EEPAS model is used to retrospectively forecast Italian shallow earthquakes with a magnitude of M≥5.0 using new MATLAB software. The forecasting performance of the probabilistic models was compared to other models using CSEP binary tests. The EEPAS and ETAS models showed different characteristics for forecasting Italian earthquakes, with EEPAS performing better in the long-term and ETAS performing better in the short-term. The FORE model based on strong precursor quakes is compared to EEPAS and ETAS using an alarm-based deterministic approach. All models perform better than a random forecasting model, with ETAS and FORE models showing better performance. However, to fully evaluate forecasting performance, prospective tests should be conducted. The lack of objective tests for evaluating deterministic models and comparing them with probabilistic ones was a challenge faced during the study.

Monitoring time-dependent deformation patterns through geodetic techniques

In this thesis we focus on the analysis and interpretation of time dependent deformations recorded through different geodetic methods. Firstly, we apply a variational Bayesian Independent Component Analysis (vbICA) technique to GPS daily displacement solutions, to separate the postseismic deformation that followed the mainshocks of the 2016-2017 Central Italy seismic sequence from the other, hydrological, deformation sources. By interpreting the signal associated with the postseismic relaxation, we model an afterslip distribution on the faults involved by the mainshocks consistent with the co-seismic models available in literature. We find evidences of aseismic slip on the Paganica fault, responsible for the Mw 6.1 2009 L’Aquila earthquake, highlighting the importance of aseismic slip and static stress transfer to properly model the recurrence of earthquakes on nearby fault segments. We infer a possible viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust as a contributing mechanism to the postseismic displacements. We highlight the importance of a proper separation of the hydrological signals for an accurate assessment of the tectonic processes, especially in cases of mm-scale deformations. Contextually, we provide a physical explanation to the ICs associated with the observed hydrological processes. In the second part of the thesis, we focus on strain data from Gladwin Tensor Strainmeters, working on the instruments deployed in Taiwan. We develop a novel approach, completely data driven, to calibrate these strainmeters. We carry out a joint analysis of geodetic (strainmeters, GPS and GRACE products) and hydrological (rain gauges and piezometers) data sets, to characterize the hydrological signals in Southern Taiwan. Lastly, we apply the calibration approach here proposed to the strainmeters recently installed in Central Italy. We provide, as an example, the detection of a storm that hit the Umbria-Marche regions (Italy), demonstrating the potential of strainmeters in following the dynamics of deformation processes with limited spatio-temporal signature

A Trans-dimensional inversion algorithm to model deformation sources with unconstrained shape in finite element domains

Ground deformation provides valuable insights on subsurface processes with pattens reflecting the characteristics of the source at depth. In active volcanic sites displacements can be observed in unrest phases; therefore, a correct interpretation is essential to assess the hazard potential. Inverse modeling is employed to obtain quantitative estimates of parameters describing the source. However, despite the robustness of the available approaches, a realistic imaging of these reservoirs is still challenging. While analytical models return quick but simplistic results, assuming an isotropic and elastic crust, more sophisticated numerical models, accounting for the effects of topographic loads, crust inelasticity and structural discontinuities, require much higher computational effort and information about the crust rheology may be challenging to infer. All these approaches are based on a-priori source shape constraints, influencing the solution reliability. In this thesis, we present a new approach aimed at overcoming the aforementioned limitations, modeling sources free of a-priori shape constraints with the advantages of FEM simulations, but with a cost-efficient procedure. The source is represented as an assembly of elementary units, consisting in cubic elements of a regular FE mesh loaded with a unitary stress tensors. The surface response due to each of the six stress tensor components is computed and linearly combined to obtain the total displacement field. In this way, the source can assume potentially any shape. Our tests prove the equivalence of the deformation fields due to our assembly and that of corresponding cavities with uniform boundary pressure. Our ability to simulate pressurized cavities in a continuum domain permits to pre-compute surface responses, avoiding remeshing. A Bayesian trans-dimensional inversion algorithm implementing this strategy is developed. 3D Voronoi cells are used to sample the model domain, selecting the elementary units contributing to the source solution and those remaining inactive as part of the crust.

Oltre Oceano: Altri orizzonti del possibile. Epistemiologie di Abya Yala e progettualità esistenziale “Lekil Kuxlejal,Sumak Kawsay, Kajkrasa Ruyina”. Filosofie della Terra per una Pedagogia del Buen Vivir

Questo elaborato propone alcune riflessioni sulla necessità urgente di un nuovo paradigma educativo, mediante la re-organizzazione delle scienze della conoscenza, scienze in parole di Morin, “disgiunte e frazionate, inadeguate ad affrontare problemi che richiedono oggi approcci multidisciplinari”. La sfida: affrontare i nuovi problemi di una convivenza planetaria, attraverso le connessioni del pensiero ecologico, in questo studio asse centrale delle cosmovisioni e della Sapienza ancestrale dei Popoli di AbyaYala (America Latina). Popoli in cui la Vita come orizzonte di Armonia ed Equilibrio si concretizza in pratiche di Vita Quotidiana grazie ad una Pedagogia del BuenVivir, inclusiva e partecipativa, rispettosa della diversità biologica e delle differenze culturali, nonché della Sacralità della Terra e della Vita in tutte le sue manifestazioni. La cornice teorica considerata fa riferimento in modo particolare a: L’Ecologia della Mente (Bateson); Il problematicismo Pedagogico e l’Educazione alla Progettualità Esistenziale (G.M.Bertin, Contini); l’Ecologia dei Saperi e le Epistemologie del Sud (Boaventura di Sousa Santos, sociologo portoghese), in modo da tessere ponti di dialogo fra le diverse discipline, in particolare fra la pedagogia, la geografia, l’antropologia, la filosofia, la sociologia, la letteratura, il diritto e anche con le neuroscienze.

L’effetto “età della Terra”. Contratto didattico e principi regolativi dell’azione degli studenti in matematica.

L’oggetto di questa tesi è un fenomeno didattico osservato in due valutazioni standardizzate nazionali INVALSI, legato all’atteggiamento degli studenti mentre svolgono task di matematica. L’effetto, che abbiamo denotato effetto “età della Terra”, è stato interpretato in questa ricerca attraverso l’interazione e il confronto di diversi costrutti teorici che spiegano come questo effetto, che può essere considerato come una tipica situazione di contratto didattico, è generato dalla relazione studente-insegnante ma può diventare più strettamente legato al rapporto che hanno gli studenti con la matematica. Inizialmente abbiamo condotto uno studio dei risultati statistici delle valutazioni standardizzate nazionali (Rash Analysis). Il primo step della sperimentazione è consistito nella preparazione, validazione e somministrazione di 612 questionari a studenti di diversi livelli scolastici e basandoci sui risultati dei questionari abbiamo condotto interviste di gruppo. L’analisi quantitativa e qualitativa dei risultati ha confermato la presenza dell’effetto “età della Terra” e ha mostrato che questo effetto è indipendente dal livello scolastico e dall’età degli studenti, dal contenuto matematico e dal contesto dei task proposti. La seconda parte della ricerca è stata volta ad indagare la cause di questo effetto. Abbiamo infatti individuato un principio regolativo che condizione l’azione degli studenti mentre fanno attività matematica e abbiamo condotto molte interviste individuali per indagarlo. Il comportamento degli studenti intervistati è stato così studiato e classificato con i costrutti del quadro teorico.

Applicazione ed integrazione di metodi di prospezione geofisica: studio idrogeofisico della Zona Insatura in condizioni idriche controllate

Il lavoro è incentrato sull’applicazione ed integrazione di differenti tecniche di indagine geofisica in campo ambientale e ingegneristico/archeologico. Alcuni esempi sono stati descritti al fine di dimostrare l’utilità delle metodologie geofisiche nella risoluzione di svariate problematiche. Nello specifico l’attenzione è stata rivolta all’utilizzo delle tecniche del Ground Penetrating Radar e del Time Domain Reflectometry in misure condotte su un corpo sabbioso simulante una Zona Insatura. L’esperimento è stato realizzato all’interno di un’area test costruita presso l’azienda agricola dell’Università La Tuscia di Viterbo. Hanno partecipato al progetto le Università di Roma Tre, Roma La Sapienza, La Tuscia, con il supporto tecnico della Sensore&Software. Nello studio è stato condotto un approccio definito idrogeofisico al fine di ottenere informazioni da misure dei parametri fisici relativi alla Zona Insatura simulata nell’area test. Il confronto e l’integrazione delle due differenti tecniche di indagine ha offerto la possibilità di estendere la profondità di indagine all’interno del corpo sabbioso e di verificare l’utilità della tecnica GPR nello studio degli effetti legati alle variazioni del contenuto d’acqua nel suolo, oltre a determinare la posizione della superficie piezometrica per i differenti scenari di saturazione. Uno specifico studio è stato realizzato sul segnale radar al fine di stabilire i fattori di influenza sulla sua propagazione all’interno del suolo. Il comportamento dei parametri dielettrici nelle condizioni di drenaggio e di imbibizione del corpo sabbioso è stato riprodotto attraverso una modellizzazione delle proprietà dielettriche ed idrologiche sulla base della dimensione, forma e distribuzione dei granuli di roccia e pori, nonché sulla base della storia relativa alla distribuzione dei fluidi di saturazione all’interno del mezzo. La modellizzazione è stata operata sulle basi concettuali del Differential Effective Medium Approximation.