A comprehensive study of the 26th December 2004 Sumatra earthquake: possible implications on Earth rotation and investigations on the coseismic and postseismic stress diffusion associated with the seismic rupture

In this work a multidisciplinary study of the December 26th, 2004 Sumatra earthquake has been carried out. We have investigated both the effect of the earthquake on the Earth rotation and the stress field variations associated with the seismic event. In the first part of the work we have quantified the effects of a water mass redistribution associated with the propagation of a tsunami wave on the Earth’s pole path and on the length-of-day (LOD) and applied our modeling results to the tsunami following the 2004 giant Sumatra earthquake. We compared the result of our simulations on the instantaneous rotational axis variations with some preliminary instrumental evidences on the pole path perturbation (which has not been confirmed yet) registered just after the occurrence of the earthquake, which showed a step-like discontinuity that cannot be attributed to the effect of a seismic dislocation. Our results show that the perturbation induced by the tsunami on the instantaneous rotational pole is characterized by a step-like discontinuity, which is compatible with the observations but its magnitude turns out to be almost one hundred times smaller than the detected one. The LOD variation induced by the water mass redistribution turns out to be not significant because the total effect is smaller than current measurements uncertainties. In the second part of this work of thesis we modeled the coseismic and postseismic stress evolution following the Sumatra earthquake. By means of a semi-analytical, viscoelastic, spherical model of global postseismic deformation and a numerical finite-element approach, we performed an analysis of the stress diffusion following the earthquake in the near and far field of the mainshock source. We evaluated the stress changes due to the Sumatra earthquake by projecting the Coulomb stress over the sequence of aftershocks taken from various catalogues in a time window spanning about two years and finally analyzed the spatio-temporal pattern. The analysis performed with the semi-analytical and the finite-element modeling gives a complex picture of the stress diffusion, in the area under study, after the Sumatra earthquake. We believe that the results obtained with the analytical method suffer heavily for the restrictions imposed, on the hypocentral depths of the aftershocks, in order to obtain the convergence of the harmonic series of the stress components. On the contrary we imposed no constraints on the numerical method so we expect that the results obtained give a more realistic description of the stress variations pattern.

Shallow and deep deformation in northern Apennines region using seismological data

For its particular position and the complex geological history, the Northern Apennines has been considered as a natural laboratory to apply several kinds of investigations. By the way, it is complicated to joint all the knowledge about the Northern Apennines in a unique picture that explains the structural and geological emplacement that produced it. The main goal of this thesis is to put together all information on the deformation - in the crust and at depth - of this region and to describe a geodynamical model that takes account of it. To do so, we have analyzed the pattern of deformation in the crust and in the mantle. In both cases the deformation has been studied using always information recovered from earthquakes, although using different techniques. In particular the shallower deformation has been studied using seismic moment tensors information. For our purpose we used the methods described in Arvidsson and Ekstrom (1998) that allowing the use in the inversion of surface waves [and not only of the body waves as the Centroid Moment Tensor (Dziewonski et al., 1981) one] allow to determine seismic source parameters for earthquakes with magnitude as small as 4.0. We applied this tool in the Northern Apennines and through this activity we have built up the Italian CMT dataset (Pondrelli et al., 2006) and the pattern of seismic deformation using the Kostrov (1974) method on a regular grid of 0.25 degree cells. We obtained a map of lateral variations of the pattern of seismic deformation on different layers of depth, taking into account the fact that shallow earthquakes (within 15 km of depth) in the region occur everywhere while most of events with a deeper hypocenter (15-40 km) occur only in the outer part of the belt, on the Adriatic side. For the analysis of the deep deformation, i.e. that occurred in the mantle, we used the anisotropy information characterizing the structure below the Northern Apennines. The anisotropy is an earth properties that in the crust is due to the presence of aligned fluid filled cracks or alternating isotropic layers with different elastic properties while in the mantle the most important cause of seismic anisotropy is the lattice preferred orientation (LPO) of the mantle minerals as the olivine. This last is a highly anisotropic mineral and tends to align its fast crystallographic axes (a-axis) parallel to the astenospheric flow as a response to finite strain induced by geodynamic processes. The seismic anisotropy pattern of a region is measured utilizing the shear wave splitting phenomenon (that is the seismological analogue to optical birefringence). Here, to do so, we apply on teleseismic earthquakes recorded on stations located in the study region, the Sileny and Plomerova (1996) approach. The results are analyzed on the basis of their lateral and vertical variations to better define the earth structure beneath Northern Apennines. We find different anisotropic domains, a Tuscany and an Adria one, with a pattern of seismic anisotropy which laterally varies in a similar way respect to the seismic deformation. Moreover, beneath the Adriatic region the distribution of the splitting parameters is so complex to request an appropriate analysis. Therefore we applied on our data the code of Menke and Levin (2003) which allows to look for different models of structures with multilayer anisotropy. We obtained that the structure beneath the Po Plain is probably even more complicated than expected. On the basis of the results obtained for this thesis, added with those from previous works, we suggest that slab roll-back, which created the Apennines and opened the Tyrrhenian Sea, evolved in the north boundary of Northern Apennines in a different way from its southern part. In particular, the trench retreat developed primarily south of our study region, with an eastward roll-back. In the northern portion of the orogen, after a first stage during which the retreat was perpendicular to the trench, it became oblique with respect to the structure.

Estimating crustal deformation from geodetic data

By the end of the 19th century, geodesy has contributed greatly to the knowledge of regional tectonics and fault movement through its ability to measure, at sub-centimetre precision, the relative positions of points on the Earth’s surface. Nowadays the systematic analysis of geodetic measurements in active deformation regions represents therefore one of the most important tool in the study of crustal deformation over different temporal scales [e.g., Dixon, 1991]. This dissertation focuses on motion that can be observed geodetically with classical terrestrial position measurements, particularly triangulation and leveling observations. The work is divided into two sections: an overview of the principal methods for estimating longterm accumulation of elastic strain from terrestrial observations, and an overview of the principal methods for rigorously inverting surface coseismic deformation fields for source geometry with tests on synthetic deformation data sets and applications in two different tectonically active regions of the Italian peninsula. For the long-term accumulation of elastic strain analysis, triangulation data were available from a geodetic network across the Messina Straits area (southern Italy) for the period 1971 – 2004. From resulting angle changes, the shear strain rates as well as the orientation of the principal axes of the strain rate tensor were estimated. The computed average annual shear strain rates for the time period between 1971 and 2004 are γ˙1 = 113.89 ± 54.96 nanostrain/yr and γ˙2 = -23.38 ± 48.71 nanostrain/yr, with the orientation of the most extensional strain (θ) at N140.80° ± 19.55°E. These results suggests that the first-order strain field of the area is dominated by extension in the direction perpendicular to the trend of the Straits, sustaining the hypothesis that the Messina Straits could represents an area of active concentrated deformation. The orientation of θ agree well with GPS deformation estimates, calculated over shorter time interval, and is consistent with previous preliminary GPS estimates [D’Agostino and Selvaggi, 2004; Serpelloni et al., 2005] and is also similar to the direction of the 1908 (MW 7.1) earthquake slip vector [e.g., Boschi et al., 1989; Valensise and Pantosti, 1992; Pino et al., 2000; Amoruso et al., 2002]. Thus, the measured strain rate can be attributed to an active extension across the Messina Straits, corresponding to a relative extension rate ranges between < 1mm/yr and up to ~ 2 mm/yr, within the portion of the Straits covered by the triangulation network. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the Messina Straits is an important active geological boundary between the Sicilian and the Calabrian domains and support previous preliminary GPS-based estimates of strain rates across the Straits, which show that the active deformation is distributed along a greater area. Finally, the preliminary dislocation modelling has shown that, although the current geodetic measurements do not resolve the geometry of the dislocation models, they solve well the rate of interseismic strain accumulation across the Messina Straits and give useful information about the locking the depth of the shear zone. Geodetic data, triangulation and leveling measurements of the 1976 Friuli (NE Italy) earthquake, were available for the inversion of coseismic source parameters. From observed angle and elevation changes, the source parameters of the seismic sequence were estimated in a join inversion using an algorithm called “simulated annealing”. The computed optimal uniform–slip elastic dislocation model consists of a 30° north-dipping shallow (depth 1.30 ± 0.75 km) fault plane with azimuth of 273° and accommodating reverse dextral slip of about 1.8 m. The hypocentral location and inferred fault plane of the main event are then consistent with the activation of Periadriatic overthrusts or other related thrust faults as the Gemona- Kobarid thrust. Then, the geodetic data set exclude the source solution of Aoudia et al. [2000], Peruzza et al. [2002] and Poli et al. [2002] that considers the Susans-Tricesimo thrust as the May 6 event. The best-fit source model is then more consistent with the solution of Pondrelli et al. [2001], which proposed the activation of other thrusts located more to the North of the Susans-Tricesimo thrust, probably on Periadriatic related thrust faults. The main characteristics of the leveling and triangulation data are then fit by the optimal single fault model, that is, these results are consistent with a first-order rupture process characterized by a progressive rupture of a single fault system. A single uniform-slip fault model seems to not reproduce some minor complexities of the observations, and some residual signals that are not modelled by the optimal single-fault plane solution, were observed. In fact, the single fault plane model does not reproduce some minor features of the leveling deformation field along the route 36 south of the main uplift peak, that is, a second fault seems to be necessary to reproduce these residual signals. By assuming movements along some mapped thrust located southward of the inferred optimal single-plane solution, the residual signal has been successfully modelled. In summary, the inversion results presented in this Thesis, are consistent with the activation of some Periadriatic related thrust for the main events of the sequence, and with a minor importance of the southward thrust systems of the middle Tagliamento plain.

Multiresolution spherical wavelet analysis in global seismic tomography

Every seismic event produces seismic waves which travel throughout the Earth. Seismology is the science of interpreting measurements to derive information about the structure of the Earth. Seismic tomography is the most powerful tool for determination of 3D structure of deep Earth's interiors. Tomographic models obtained at the global and regional scales are an underlying tool for determination of geodynamical state of the Earth, showing evident correlation with other geophysical and geological characteristics. The global tomographic images of the Earth can be written as a linear combinations of basis functions from a specifically chosen set, defining the model parameterization. A number of different parameterizations are commonly seen in literature: seismic velocities in the Earth have been expressed, for example, as combinations of spherical harmonics or by means of the simpler characteristic functions of discrete cells. With this work we are interested to focus our attention on this aspect, evaluating a new type of parameterization, performed by means of wavelet functions. It is known from the classical Fourier theory that a signal can be expressed as the sum of a, possibly infinite, series of sines and cosines. This sum is often referred as a Fourier expansion. The big disadvantage of a Fourier expansion is that it has only frequency resolution and no time resolution. The Wavelet Analysis (or Wavelet Transform) is probably the most recent solution to overcome the shortcomings of Fourier analysis. The fundamental idea behind this innovative analysis is to study signal according to scale. Wavelets, in fact, are mathematical functions that cut up data into different frequency components, and then study each component with resolution matched to its scale, so they are especially useful in the analysis of non stationary process that contains multi-scale features, discontinuities and sharp strike. Wavelets are essentially used in two ways when they are applied in geophysical process or signals studies: 1) as a basis for representation or characterization of process; 2) as an integration kernel for analysis to extract information about the process. These two types of applications of wavelets in geophysical field, are object of study of this work. At the beginning we use the wavelets as basis to represent and resolve the Tomographic Inverse Problem. After a briefly introduction to seismic tomography theory, we assess the power of wavelet analysis in the representation of two different type of synthetic models; then we apply it to real data, obtaining surface wave phase velocity maps and evaluating its abilities by means of comparison with an other type of parametrization (i.e., block parametrization). For the second type of wavelet application we analyze the ability of Continuous Wavelet Transform in the spectral analysis, starting again with some synthetic tests to evaluate its sensibility and capability and then apply the same analysis to real data to obtain Local Correlation Maps between different model at same depth or between different profiles of the same model.

Sviluppo di metodologie di localizzazione nel contesto del Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty

Since the first underground nuclear explosion, carried out in 1958, the analysis of seismic signals generated by these sources has allowed seismologists to refine the travel times of seismic waves through the Earth and to verify the accuracy of the location algorithms (the ground truth for these sources was often known). Long international negotiates have been devoted to limit the proliferation and testing of nuclear weapons. In particular the Treaty for the comprehensive nuclear test ban (CTBT), was opened to signatures in 1996, though, even if it has been signed by 178 States, has not yet entered into force, The Treaty underlines the fundamental role of the seismological observations to verify its compliance, by detecting and locating seismic events, and identifying the nature of their sources. A precise definition of the hypocentral parameters represents the first step to discriminate whether a given seismic event is natural or not. In case that a specific event is retained suspicious by the majority of the State Parties, the Treaty contains provisions for conducting an on-site inspection (OSI) in the area surrounding the epicenter of the event, located through the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the CTBT Organization. An OSI is supposed to include the use of passive seismic techniques in the area of the suspected clandestine underground nuclear test. In fact, high quality seismological systems are thought to be capable to detect and locate very weak aftershocks triggered by underground nuclear explosions in the first days or weeks following the test. This PhD thesis deals with the development of two different seismic location techniques: the first one, known as the double difference joint hypocenter determination (DDJHD) technique, is aimed at locating closely spaced events at a global scale. The locations obtained by this method are characterized by a high relative accuracy, although the absolute location of the whole cluster remains uncertain. We eliminate this problem introducing a priori information: the known location of a selected event. The second technique concerns the reliable estimates of back azimuth and apparent velocity of seismic waves from local events of very low magnitude recorded by a trypartite array at a very local scale. For the two above-mentioned techniques, we have used the crosscorrelation technique among digital waveforms in order to minimize the errors linked with incorrect phase picking. The cross-correlation method relies on the similarity between waveforms of a pair of events at the same station, at the global scale, and on the similarity between waveforms of the same event at two different sensors of the try-partite array, at the local scale. After preliminary tests on the reliability of our location techniques based on simulations, we have applied both methodologies to real seismic events. The DDJHD technique has been applied to a seismic sequence occurred in the Turkey-Iran border region, using the data recorded by the IMS. At the beginning, the algorithm was applied to the differences among the original arrival times of the P phases, so the cross-correlation was not used. We have obtained that the relevant geometrical spreading, noticeable in the standard locations (namely the locations produced by the analysts of the International Data Center (IDC) of the CTBT Organization, assumed as our reference), has been considerably reduced by the application of our technique. This is what we expected, since the methodology has been applied to a sequence of events for which we can suppose a real closeness among the hypocenters, belonging to the same seismic structure. Our results point out the main advantage of this methodology: the systematic errors affecting the arrival times have been removed or at least reduced. The introduction of the cross-correlation has not brought evident improvements to our results: the two sets of locations (without and with the application of the cross-correlation technique) are very similar to each other. This can be commented saying that the use of the crosscorrelation has not substantially improved the precision of the manual pickings. Probably the pickings reported by the IDC are good enough to make the random picking error less important than the systematic error on travel times. As a further justification for the scarce quality of the results given by the cross-correlation, it should be remarked that the events included in our data set don’t have generally a good signal to noise ratio (SNR): the selected sequence is composed of weak events ( magnitude 4 or smaller) and the signals are strongly attenuated because of the large distance between the stations and the hypocentral area. In the local scale, in addition to the cross-correlation, we have performed a signal interpolation in order to improve the time resolution. The algorithm so developed has been applied to the data collected during an experiment carried out in Israel between 1998 and 1999. The results pointed out the following relevant conclusions: a) it is necessary to correlate waveform segments corresponding to the same seismic phases; b) it is not essential to select the exact first arrivals; and c) relevant information can be also obtained from the maximum amplitude wavelet of the waveforms (particularly in bad SNR conditions). Another remarkable point of our procedure is that its application doesn’t demand a long time to process the data, and therefore the user can immediately check the results. During a field survey, such feature will make possible a quasi real-time check allowing the immediate optimization of the array geometry, if so suggested by the results at an early stage.

Dati geochimici ed ecologici di foraminiferi planctonici. Implicazioni paleoceanografiche in due aree chiave: Oceano Meridionale e Mare Mediterraneo.

La studio della distribuzione spaziale e temporale della associazioni a foraminiferi planctonici, campionati in zone con differente regime idrografico, ha permesso di comprendere che molte specie possono essere diagnostiche della presenza di diverse masse d’acqua superficiali e sottosuperficiali e di diversi regimi di nutrienti nelle acque oceaniche. Parte di questo lavoro di tesi si basa sullo studio delle associazioni a foraminiferi planctonici attualmente viventi nel Settore Pacifico dell’Oceano Meridionale (Mare di Ross e Zona del Fronte Polare) e nel Mare Mediterraneo (Mar Tirreno Meridionale). L’obiettivo di questo studio è quello di comprendere i fattori (temperatura, salinità, nutrienti etc.) che determinano la distribuzione attuale delle diverse specie al fine di valutarne il valore di “indicatori” (proxies) utili alla ricostruzione degli scenari paleoclimatici e paleoceanografici succedutisi in queste aree. I risultati documentano che la distribuzione delle diverse specie, il numero di individui e le variazioni nella morfologia di alcuni taxa sono correlate alle caratteristiche chimico-fisiche della colonna e alla disponibilità di nutrienti e di clorofilla. La seconda parte del lavoro di tesi ha previsto l’analisi degli isotopi stabili dell’ossigeno e del rapporto Mg/Ca in gusci di N. pachyderma (sin) prelevati da pescate di micro zooplancton (per tarare l’equazione di paleo temperatura) da un box core e da una carota provenienti dalla zona del Fronte Polare (Oceano Pacifico meridionale), al fine di ricostruire le variazioni di temperatura negli ultimi 13 ka e durante la Mid-Pleistocene Revolution. Le temperature, dedotte tramite i valori degli isotopi stabili dell’ossigeno, sono coerenti con le temperature attuali documentate in questa zona e il trend di temperatura è paragonabile a quelli riportati in letteratura anche per eventi climatici come lo Younger Dryas e il mid-Holocene Optimum. I valori del rapporto Mg/Ca misurato tramite due diverse tecniche di analisi (laser ablation e analisi in soluzione) sono risultati sempre molto più alti dei valori riportati in letteratura per la stessa specie. La laser ablation sembra carente dal punto di vista del cleaning del campione e da questo studio emerge che le due tecniche non sono comparabili e che non possono essere usate indifferentemente sullo stesso campione. Per quanto riguarda l’analisi dei campioni in soluzione è stato migliorato il protocollo di cleaning per il trattamento di campioni antartici, che ha permesso di ottenere valori veritieri e utili ai fini delle ricostruzioni di paleotemperatura. Tuttavia, rimane verosimile l’ipotesi che in ambienti particolari come questo, con salinità e temperature molto basse, l’incorporazione del Mg all’interno del guscio risenta delle condizioni particolari e che non segua quindi la relazione esponenziale con la temperatura ampiamente dimostrata ad altre latitudini.

Metodologie per il miglioramento delle stime di pericolosità sismica in Italia

In questo lavoro di dottorato sono stati analizzati differenti strumenti impiegati per le stime di pericolosità sismica. Facendo riferimento alla Mappa di Pericolosità Sismica Italiana MPS04 (Gruppo di Lavoro MPS, 2004), redatta dall’Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) e adottata come mappa di riferimento per il territorio nazionale ai sensi dell’Ordinanza PCM 3519 del 28 aprile 2006, All. 1b, è stato approfondito il calcolo dei tassi di sismicità attraverso la relazione di Gutenberg e Richter (1944). In particolare, si è proceduto attraverso un confronto tra i valori ottenuti dagli autori della Mappa (Gruppo di Lavoro MPS, 2004) e i valori ottenuti imponendo un valore costante e unico al parametro b della relazione (Gutenberg e Richter, 1944). Il secondo tema affrontato è stato l’analisi della presenza di eventi di origine non tettonica in un catalogo. Nel 2000 Wiemer e Baer hanno proposto un algoritmo che identifica e rimuove gli eventi di origine antropica. Alla metodologia di Wiemer e Baer (2000) sono state apportate delle modifiche al fine di limitare la rimozione di eventi naturali. Tale analisi è stata condotta sul Catalogo Strumentale della Sismicità Italiana (CSI 1.1; Castello et al., 2006) e sui cataloghi Europei disponibili online: Spagna e Portogallo, Francia, Nord Europa, Repubblica Ceca, Romania, Grecia. L’ultimo argomento trattato ha riguardato la presunta correlazione tra i meccanismi di fagliazione e il parametro b della relazione di Gutenberg e Richter (1944). Nel lavoro di Schorlemmer et al. (2005), tale correlazione è dimostrata calcolando il b-value su una griglia a scala mondiale raggruppando i terremoti in funzione dell’angolo di rake: i valori maggiori del parametro sono misurati per i terremoti che si originano in un regime distensivo, seguono quelli in un regime trascorrente mentre i valori minori si registrano nelle aree a regime compressivo. Il principale ostacolo per una applicazione del metodo al territorio italiano è rappresentato dal numero ridotto di terremoti per i quali è possibile avere indicazioni circa il meccanismo focale della sorgente: la correlazione è stata così valutata calcolando il b-value all’interno delle zone sismogenetiche definite per la realizzazione di MPS04 (Gruppo di Lavoro MPS, 2004), alle quali è stato nuovamente assegnato un meccanismo di fagliazione prevalente attraverso la somma del tensore momento. Sono inoltre allegati lavori altri lavori prodotti nell’ambito della pericolosità sismica.

Stratigraphy and Palaeontology of the Late Cretaceous Wapiti Formation, west-central Alberta, Canada

A complete stratigraphic assessment and revision of the middle Campanian to upper Maastrichtian Wapiti Formation in north-western Alberta and north-eastern British Columbia is the main aim of this research project. The study area encompasses an area of approximately 200X180 km in the Grande Prairie County (west-central Alberta) and easternmost British Columbia, Canada. Results presented here indicate that the 1300m thick succession currently reported in the literature as “undifferentiated lithostratigraphic unit”, consists of five lithostratigraphic units and four unconformity-bounded depositional sequences; their study and description have been documented integrating several geological disciplines, including sequence stratigraphic methods, well-log signatures, facies analysis, and fossil associations. On the whole, particular attention has been given to 1) age and nature of both basal and upper contacts of the Wapiti Formation, 2) effective mappability of lithostratigraphic units and depositional sequences in western Alberta, and 3) the identification of previously undetermined maximum flooding surface of the Bearpaw seaway and Drumheller Marine Tongue, which are reference marine unit in central and southern Alberta. A second, but not less important, guideline for the project has been the rich paleontological record of the Wapiti deposits. Detailed paleoenvironmental and taxonomical information on old and new finds have been the base for correlation with well known associations of Alaska, southern Alberta, and Montana. Newly discovered rich fossil localities documented an extraordinarily diverse fauna during the latest Cretaceous, including dinosaurs, squamates, and fresh-water fishes and reptiles. Lastly, in order to better characterize the Wapiti Formation, major marker beds were described: these include several bentonites (altered volcanic ash deposits) which have been documented over an area of almost 30.000 km2, as well as four major coal zones, characterized by tabular coal seams with an overall thickness of 2 meters. Such marker beds represent a formidable tool for high-resolution chronology and regional correlations within the Late Cretaceous Alberta foreland basin.

Tecniche di elaborazione di dati macrosismici per la definizione di sorgenti sismogenetiche

La valutazione dell’intensità secondo una procedura formale trasparente, obiettiva e che permetta di ottenere valori numerici attraverso scelte e criteri rigorosi, rappresenta un passo ed un obiettivo per la trattazione e l’impiego delle informazioni macrosismiche. I dati macrosismici possono infatti avere importanti applicazioni per analisi sismotettoniche e per la stima della pericolosità sismica. Questa tesi ha affrontato il problema del formalismo della stima dell’intensità migliorando aspetti sia teorici che pratici attraverso tre passaggi fondamentali sviluppati in ambiente MS-Excel e Matlab: i) la raccolta e l’archiviazione del dataset macrosismico; ii), l’associazione (funzione di appartenenza o membership function) tra effetti e gradi di intensità della scala macrosismica attraverso i principi della logica dei fuzzy sets; iii) l’applicazione di algoritmi decisionali rigorosi ed obiettivi per la stima dell’intensità finale. L’intera procedura è stata applicata a sette terremoti italiani sfruttando varie possibilità, anche metodologiche, come la costruzione di funzioni di appartenenza combinando le informazioni macrosismiche di più terremoti: Monte Baldo (1876), Valle d’Illasi (1891), Marsica (1915), Santa Sofia (1918), Mugello (1919), Garfagnana (1920) e Irpinia (1930). I risultati ottenuti hanno fornito un buon accordo statistico con le intensità di un catalogo macrosismico di riferimento confermando la validità dell’intera metodologia. Le intensità ricavate sono state poi utilizzate per analisi sismotettoniche nelle aree dei terremoti studiati. I metodi di analisi statistica sui piani quotati (distribuzione geografica delle intensità assegnate) si sono rivelate in passato uno strumento potente per analisi e caratterizzazione sismotettonica, determinando i principali parametri (localizzazione epicentrale, lunghezza, larghezza, orientazione) della possibile sorgente sismogenica. Questa tesi ha implementato alcuni aspetti delle metodologie di analisi grazie a specifiche applicazioni sviluppate in Matlab che hanno permesso anche di stimare le incertezze associate ai parametri di sorgente, grazie a tecniche di ricampionamento statistico. Un’analisi sistematica per i terremoti studiati è stata portata avanti combinando i vari metodi per la stima dei parametri di sorgente con i piani quotati originali e ricalcolati attraverso le procedure decisionali fuzzy. I risultati ottenuti hanno consentito di valutare le caratteristiche delle possibili sorgenti e formulare ipotesi di natura sismotettonica che hanno avuto alcuni riscontri indiziali con dati di tipo geologico e geologico-strutturale. Alcuni eventi (1915, 1918, 1920) presentano una forte stabilità dei parametri calcolati (localizzazione epicentrale e geometria della possibile sorgente) con piccole incertezze associate. Altri eventi (1891, 1919 e 1930) hanno invece mostrato una maggiore variabilità sia nella localizzazione dell’epicentro che nella geometria delle box: per il primo evento ciò è probabilmente da mettere in relazione con la ridotta consistenza del dataset di intensità mentre per gli altri con la possibile molteplicità delle sorgenti sismogenetiche. Anche l’analisi bootstrap ha messo in evidenza, in alcuni casi, le possibili asimmetrie nelle distribuzioni di alcuni parametri (ad es. l’azimut della possibile struttura), che potrebbero suggerire meccanismi di rottura su più faglie distinte.

Meccanismi di formazione dei tubi di lava

Two analytical models are proposed to describe two different mechanisms of lava tubes formation. A first model is introduced to describe the development of a solid crust in the central region of the channel, and the formation of a tube when crust widens until it reaches the leve\'es. The Newtonian assumption is considered and the steady state Navier- Stokes equation in a rectangular conduit is solved. A constant heat flux density assigned at the upper flow surface resumes the combined effects of two thermal processes: radiation and convection into the atmosphere. Advective terms are also included, by the introduction of velocity into the expression of temperature. Velocity is calculated as an average value over the channel width, so that lateral variations of temperature are neglected. As long as the upper flow surface cools, a solid layer develops, described as a plastic body, having a resistance to shear deformation. If the applied shear stress exceeds this resistance, crust breaks, otherwise, solid fragments present at the flow surface can weld together forming a continuous roof, as it happens in the sidewall flow regions. Variations of channel width, ground slope and effusion rate are analyzed, as parameters that strongly affect the shear stress values. Crust growing is favored when the channel widens, and tube formation is possible when the ground slope or the effusion rate reduce. A comparison of results is successfully made with data obtained from the analysis of pictures of actual flows. The second model describes the formation of a stable, well defined crust along both channel sides, their growing towards the center and their welding to form the tube roof. The fluid motion is described as in the model above. Thermal budget takes into account conduction into the atmosphere, and advection is included considering the velocity depending both on depth and channel width. The solidified crust has a non uniform thickness along the channel width. Stresses acting on the crust are calculated using the equations of the elastic thin plate, pinned at its ends. The model allows to calculate the distance where crust thickness is able to resist the drag of the underlying fluid and to sustain its weight by itself, and the level of the fluid can lower below the tube roof. Viscosity and thermal conductivity have been experimentally investigated through the use of a rotational viscosimeter. Analyzing samples coming from Mount Etna (2002) the following results have been obtained: the fluid is Newtonian and the thermal conductivity is constant in a range of temperature above the liquidus. For lower temperature, the fluid becomes non homogeneous, and the used experimental techniques are not able to detect any properties, because measurements are not reproducible.

Rapporti tra tettonica e clima durante l'esumazione nelle Alpi Centrali. Evidenze dalla termocronologia e dall'analisi strutturale lungo il traforo ferroviario del Sempione

(U-Th)/He and fission-track analyses of apatite along deep-seated tunnels crossing high-relief mountain ranges offer the opportunity to investigate climate and tectonic forcing on the topographic evolution. In this study, the thermochronologic analysis of a large set of samples collected in the Simplon railway tunnel (western-central Alps; Italy and Switzerland) and along its surface trace, coupled with kinematic and structural analysis of major fault zones intersecting the tunnel, constrains the phenomena controlling the topographic and structural evolution, during the latest stage of exhumation of the Simplon Massif, and the timing in which they operated. The study area is located at the western margin of the Lepontine metamorphic dome where a complex nappe-stack pertaining to the Penninic and Ultrahelvetic domains experienced a fast exhumation from the latest Oligocene onward. The exhumation was mainly accommodated by a west-dipping low-angle detachment (the Simplon Fault Zone) which is located just 8 km to the west of the tunnel. However, along the section itself several faults related to two principal phases both with important dip-slip kinematics have been detected. Cooling rates derived from our thermocronological data vary from about 10 °C/Ma at about 10 Ma to about 35 °C/Ma in the last 5 Ma. Such increase in the cooling rate corresponds to the most important climatic change recorded in the northern hemisphere in the last 10 Ma, i.e. the shift to wetter conditions at the end of the Messinian salinity crisis and the inception of glacial cycles in the northern hemisphere. In addition, (U-Th)/He and fission-track age patterns lack of important correlation with the topography suggesting that the present-day relief morphology is the result of recent erosional dynamics. More in details, the (U-Th)/He tunnel ages show an impressive uniformity at 2 Ma, whereas cooling rates calculated at 1 Ma increase towards the two major valleys. This indicates a focusing of erosive processes in the valleys which led to the shaping of present-day topography. Structural analysis documents the presence of two phases of brittle deformation postdating the metamorphic phases in the area. The first one is directly related to the last phase of activity along the Simplon Fault Zone and is characterized by extension towards SO and vertical shortening. The young one is characterized by extension towards NO and horizontal shortening in a along the NE-SO direction. Structures related to the first phase of brittle deformation generate important variations in the older ages' dataset, until 3 Ma, suggesting that tectonics controlled rocks exhumation up to that age. Structures related to the second phase generate some variations also in the younger age dataset, highlighting the activity of faults bordering the massif and suggesting a continuous activity also after 2 Ma. However, most of (U-Th)/He tunnel ages, varying slightly around 2 Ma, document that the Simplon area has experienced primarily erosional exhumation in this time span. In conclusion, all our data suggest that in the central Italian Alps the climatic signal gradually overrode the tectonic effects after about 5 Ma, as a consequence of the climatic instability started at end of Messinian salinity crisis and improved by the onset of glaciations in the northern hemisphere.