Validazione in torrenti appenninici monitorati di un modello fisicamente basato per la stima del deflusso solido sospeso

Il modello afflussi-deflussi e di erosione Kineros2, fisicamente basato, distribuito e a scala di evento, è stato applicato a due bacini idrografici montani della provincia di Bologna (Italia) al fine di testare e valutare il suo funzionamento in ambiente appenninico. Dopo la parametrizzazione dei due bacini, Kineros2 è stato calibrato e validato utilizzando dati sperimentali di portata e di concentrazione dei solidi sospesi, collezionati alla chiusura dei bacini grazie alla presenza di due stazioni di monitoraggio idrotorbidimetrico. La modellazione ha consentito di valutare la capacità del modello di riprodurre correttamente le dinamiche idrologiche osservate, nonchè di trarre conclusioni sulle sue potenzialità e limitazioni.

Middleware per la gestione di interfacce di comunicazione e di sorgenti di contesto in ambienti wireless eterogenei

The full exploitation of multi-hop multi-path connectivity opportunities offered by heterogeneous wireless interfaces could enable innovative Always Best Served (ABS) deployment scenarios where mobile clients dynamically self-organize to offer/exploit Internet connectivity at best. Only novel middleware solutions based on heterogeneous context information can seamlessly enable this scenario: middleware solutions should i) provide a translucent access to low-level components, to achieve both fully aware and simplified pre-configured interactions, ii) permit to fully exploit communication interface capabilities, i.e., not only getting but also providing connectivity in a peer-to-peer fashion, thus relieving final users and application developers from the burden of directly managing wireless interface heterogeneity, and iii) consider user mobility as crucial context information evaluating at provision time the suitability of available Internet points of access differently when the mobile client is still or in motion. The novelty of this research work resides in three primary points. First of all, it proposes a novel model and taxonomy providing a common vocabulary to easily describe and position solutions in the area of context-aware autonomic management of preferred network opportunities. Secondly, it presents PoSIM, a context-aware middleware for the synergic exploitation and control of heterogeneous positioning systems that facilitates the development and portability of location-based services. PoSIM is translucent, i.e., it can provide application developers with differentiated visibility of data characteristics and control possibilities of available positioning solutions, thus dynamically adapting to application-specific deployment requirements and enabling cross-layer management decisions. Finally, it provides the MMHC solution for the self-organization of multi-hop multi-path heterogeneous connectivity. MMHC considers a limited set of practical indicators on node mobility and wireless network characteristics for a coarsegrained estimation of expected reliability/quality of multi-hop paths available at runtime. In particular, MMHC manages the durability/throughput-aware formation and selection of different multi-hop paths simultaneously. Furthermore, MMHC provides a novel solution based on adaptive buffers, proactively managed based on handover prediction, to support continuous services, especially by pre-fetching multimedia contents to avoid streaming interruptions.

Modello bayesiano per la riduzione dell'incertezza nella previsione delle piene del fiume Reno

Many efforts have been devoting since last years to reduce uncertainty in hydrological modeling predictions. The principal sources of uncertainty are provided by input errors, for inaccurate rainfall prediction, and model errors, given by the approximation with which the water flow processes in the soil and river discharges are described. The aim of the present work is to develop a bayesian model in order to reduce the uncertainty in the discharge predictions for the Reno river. The ’a priori’ distribution function is given by an autoregressive model, while the likelihood function is provided by a linear equation which relates observed values of discharge in the past and hydrological TOPKAPI model predictions obtained by the rainfall predictions of the limited-area model COSMO-LAMI. The ’a posteriori’ estimations are provided throw a H∞ filter, because the statistical properties of estimation errors are not known. In this work a stationary and a dual adaptive filter are implemented and compared. Statistical analysis of estimation errors and the description of three case studies of flood events occurred during the fall seasons from 2003 to 2005 are reported. Results have also revealed that errors can be described as a markovian process only at a first approximation. For the same period, an ensemble of ’a posteriori’ estimations is obtained throw the COSMO-LEPS rainfall predictions, but the spread of this ’a posteriori’ ensemble is not enable to encompass observation variability. This fact is related to the building of the meteorological ensemble, whose spread reaches its maximum after 5 days. In the future the use of a new ensemble, COSMO–SREPS, focused on the first 3 days, could be helpful to enlarge the meteorogical and, consequently, the hydrological variability.

Messa a punto di procedure per la semi-sintesi di composti ad attività antitumorale partendo da prodotti naturali. Studi di struttura-attività

Camptothecin, (CPT) is a pentacyclic alkaloid isolated for the first time from the Chinese tree Camptotheca acuminata, and which has soon attracted the attention of medicinal chemists and pharmacologists due to its promising anti-cancer activity against the most aggressive histo-types. So far, most of the synthesized camptothecin analogues are A and B ring modified compounds, which have been prepared via synthetic or semi-synthetic routes. To the best of our knowledge, a very limited number of C, D, or E ring modified analogues of CPT have been reported; moreover, the few derivatives known from the literature showed a reduced or no biological activity. This dissertation presents synthetic studies on camptothecin new derivatives along with the development of a new and general semi-synthetic methodology to obtain a large variety of analogues. We report here the semi-synthesis of a new family of 5-substituted CPT's, along with their biological activity evaluation, which will be compared with reference compounds. The use of carrier-linked prodrugs has emerged as a useful strategy to overcome some of the drawbacks related with the use of the parent drug, such as low solubility, membrane permeability properties, low oral absorption, instability, toxicity, and nontargeting. Herein we report CPT-prodrugs synthesized via ring opening of the lactone moiety as 17-O-acyl camptothecin tripartate conjugates, which bear a polyamine side chain with different architectures, as the carriers. Moreover, we found that the replacement of the oxygen atom with sulphur on the piridone D-ring, dramatically improves the potency of the novel 16a-thio-camptothecin derivatives, opening new possibilities in the modelling of this class of compounds.

Aspetti innovativi per la valutazione e la misura della porosità nei materiali dell'edilizia antica e moderna. La geometria frattale della porosità

New concepts on porosity appraisal in ancient and modern construction materials. The role of Fractal Geometry on porosity characterization and transport phenomena. This work studied the potential of Fractal Geometry to the characterization of porous materials. Besides the descriptive aspects of the pore size distribution, the fractal dimensions have led to the development of rational relations for the prediction of permeability coefficients to fluid and heat transfer. The research considered natural materials used in historical buildings (rock and earth) as well as currently employed materials as hydraulic cement and technologically advanced materials such as silicon carbide or YSZ ceramics. The experimental results of porosity derived from the techniques of mercury intrusion and from the image analysis. Data elaboration was carried out according to established procedures of Fractal Geometry. It was found that certain classes of materials are clearly fractal and respond to simple patterns such as Sierpinski and Menger models. In several cases, however, the fractal character is not recognised because the microstructure of the material is based on different phases at different dimensional scales, and in consequence the “fractal dimensions” calculated from porosimetric data do not come within the standard range (less than 3). Using different type and numbers of fractal units is possible, however, to obtain “virtual” microstructures that have the fraction of voids and pore size distribution equivalent with the experimental ones for almost any material. Thus it was possible to take the expressions for the permeability and the thermal conduction which does not require empirical “constants”, these expressions have also provided values that are generally in agreement with the experimental available data. More problematic has been the fractal discussion of the geometry of the rupture of the material subjected to mechanical stress both external and internal applied. The results achieved on these issues are qualitative and prone to future studies. Keywords: Materials, Microstructure, Porosity, Fractal Geometry, Permeability, Thermal conduction, Mechanical strength.

Sviluppo di tecniche di analisi ifenate per la quantificazione di biomarcatori di esposizione a tossici ambientali: gli acidi mercapturici

Human biomonitoring (HBM) is an ideal tool for evaluating toxicant exposure in health risk assessment. Chemical substances or their metabolites related to environmental pollutants can be detected as biomarkers of exposure using a wide variety of biological fluids. Individual exposure to aromatic hydrocarbon compounds (benzene, toluene, and o-xylene –“BTX”) were analysed with a liquid chromatography coupled to electrospray ionisation-mass spectrometry (μHPLC-ESI-MS/MS) method for the simultaneous quantitative detection of the BTX exposure biomarker SPMA, SBMA and o-MBMA in human urine. Urinary S-phenylmercapturic acid (SPMA) is a biomarker proposed by the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) for assessing occupational exposure to benzene (Biological Exposure Index of 25 microg/g creatinine). Urinary S-benzylmercapturic (SBMA) and o-methyl S-benzyl mercapturic acid (o-MBMA) are specific toluene and o-xylene metabolites of glutathione detoxicant pathways, proposed as reliable biomarkers of exposure. To this aim a pre-treatment of the urine with solid phase extraction (SPE) and an evaporation step were necessary to concentrate the mercapturic acids before instrumental analysis. A liquid chromatography separation was carried out with a reversed phase capillary column (Synergi 4u Max-RP) using a binary gradient composed of an acquous solution of formic acid 0.07% v/v and methanol. The mercapturic acids were determinated by negative-ion-mass spectrometry and the data were corrected using isotope-labelled analogs as internal standards. The analytical method follows U.S. Food and Drug Administration guidance and was applied to assess exposure to BTX in a group of 396 traffic wardens. The association between biomarker results and individual factors, such as age, sex and tobacco smoke were also investigated. The present work also included improvements in the methods used by modifying various chromatographic parameters and experimental procedures. A partial validation was conducted to evaluate LOD, precision, accuracy, recovery as well as matrix effects. Higher sensitivity will be possible in future biological monitoring programmes, allowing evaluation of very low level of BTX human exposure. Keywords: Human biomonitoring, aromatic hydrocarbons, biomarker of exposure, HPLC-MS/MS.

L'impiego del modello di Rash per la valutazione della soddisfazione del paziente nell'ambito delle strutture sanitarie di ricovero

Hospitals and health service providers are use to collect data about patient’s opinion to improve patient health status and communication with them and to upgrade the management and the organization of the health service provided. A lot of survey are carry out for this purpose and several questionnaire are built to measure patient satisfaction. In particular patient satisfaction is a way to describe and assess the level of hospital service from the patient’s point of view. It is a cognitive and an emotional response to the hospital experience. Methodologically patient satisfaction is defined as a multidimensional latent variable. To assess patient satisfaction Item Response Theory has greater advantages compared to Classical Test Theory. Rasch model is a one-parameter model which belongs to Item Response Theory. Rasch model yield objective measure of the construct that are independent of the set of people interviewed and of set of items used. Rasch estimates are continuous and can be useful to “calibrate” the scale of the latent trait. This research attempt to investigate the questionnaire currently adopted to measure patient satisfaction in an Italian hospital, completed by a large sample of 3390 patients. We verify the multidimensional nature of the variable, the properties of the instrument and the level of satisfaction in the hospital. Successively we used Rasch estimates to describe the most satisfied and the less satisfied patients.

Tecniche di elaborazione di dati macrosismici per la definizione di sorgenti sismogenetiche

La valutazione dell’intensità secondo una procedura formale trasparente, obiettiva e che permetta di ottenere valori numerici attraverso scelte e criteri rigorosi, rappresenta un passo ed un obiettivo per la trattazione e l’impiego delle informazioni macrosismiche. I dati macrosismici possono infatti avere importanti applicazioni per analisi sismotettoniche e per la stima della pericolosità sismica. Questa tesi ha affrontato il problema del formalismo della stima dell’intensità migliorando aspetti sia teorici che pratici attraverso tre passaggi fondamentali sviluppati in ambiente MS-Excel e Matlab: i) la raccolta e l’archiviazione del dataset macrosismico; ii), l’associazione (funzione di appartenenza o membership function) tra effetti e gradi di intensità della scala macrosismica attraverso i principi della logica dei fuzzy sets; iii) l’applicazione di algoritmi decisionali rigorosi ed obiettivi per la stima dell’intensità finale. L’intera procedura è stata applicata a sette terremoti italiani sfruttando varie possibilità, anche metodologiche, come la costruzione di funzioni di appartenenza combinando le informazioni macrosismiche di più terremoti: Monte Baldo (1876), Valle d’Illasi (1891), Marsica (1915), Santa Sofia (1918), Mugello (1919), Garfagnana (1920) e Irpinia (1930). I risultati ottenuti hanno fornito un buon accordo statistico con le intensità di un catalogo macrosismico di riferimento confermando la validità dell’intera metodologia. Le intensità ricavate sono state poi utilizzate per analisi sismotettoniche nelle aree dei terremoti studiati. I metodi di analisi statistica sui piani quotati (distribuzione geografica delle intensità assegnate) si sono rivelate in passato uno strumento potente per analisi e caratterizzazione sismotettonica, determinando i principali parametri (localizzazione epicentrale, lunghezza, larghezza, orientazione) della possibile sorgente sismogenica. Questa tesi ha implementato alcuni aspetti delle metodologie di analisi grazie a specifiche applicazioni sviluppate in Matlab che hanno permesso anche di stimare le incertezze associate ai parametri di sorgente, grazie a tecniche di ricampionamento statistico. Un’analisi sistematica per i terremoti studiati è stata portata avanti combinando i vari metodi per la stima dei parametri di sorgente con i piani quotati originali e ricalcolati attraverso le procedure decisionali fuzzy. I risultati ottenuti hanno consentito di valutare le caratteristiche delle possibili sorgenti e formulare ipotesi di natura sismotettonica che hanno avuto alcuni riscontri indiziali con dati di tipo geologico e geologico-strutturale. Alcuni eventi (1915, 1918, 1920) presentano una forte stabilità dei parametri calcolati (localizzazione epicentrale e geometria della possibile sorgente) con piccole incertezze associate. Altri eventi (1891, 1919 e 1930) hanno invece mostrato una maggiore variabilità sia nella localizzazione dell’epicentro che nella geometria delle box: per il primo evento ciò è probabilmente da mettere in relazione con la ridotta consistenza del dataset di intensità mentre per gli altri con la possibile molteplicità delle sorgenti sismogenetiche. Anche l’analisi bootstrap ha messo in evidenza, in alcuni casi, le possibili asimmetrie nelle distribuzioni di alcuni parametri (ad es. l’azimut della possibile struttura), che potrebbero suggerire meccanismi di rottura su più faglie distinte.

Integrazione di tecnologie non distruttive per la caratterizzazione di rocce ornamentali

ABSTRACT: The dimension stone qualification through the use of non-destructive tests (NDT) is a relevant research topic for the industrial characterisation of finite products, because the competition of low-costs products can be sustained by an offer of highqualification and a top-guarantee products. The synthesis of potentialities offered by the NDT is the qualification and guarantee similar to the well known agro-industrial PDO, Protected Denomination of Origin. In fact it is possible to guarantee both, the origin and the quality of each stone product element, even through a Factory Production Control on line. A specific disciplinary is needed. A research developed at DICMA-Univ. Bologna in the frame of the “OSMATER” INTERREG project, allowed identifying good correlations between destructive and non-destructive tests for some types of materials from Verbano-Cusio-Ossola region. For example non conventional ultrasonic tests, image analysis parameters, water absorption and other measurements showed to be well correlated with the bending resistance, by relationships varying for each product. In conclusion it has been demonstrated that a nondestructive approach allows reaching several goals, among the most important: 1) the identification of materials; 2) the selection of products; 3) the substitution of DT by NDT. Now it is necessary to move from a research phase to the industrial implementation, as well as to develop new ND technologies focused on specific aims.