Evaluation and management of demersal stocks in the Adriatic: the case of common sole (Solea solea, L.) in the northern and central Adriatic Sea

This PhD thesis aimed to assess the status of common sole, one of the main commercial stocks in the Adriatic Sea, using a mix of conventional and innovative techniques to provide more reliable estimates of stock status compared to past advice. First, a meta-analysis was carried out using data-poor assessment model to analyze the whole catch assemblage of rapido fishery. The outcomes were used to estimate rebuilding time and forecast catches under different harvest control rule scenarios, with a reduction of 20% of fishing effort being suggested as a way to allow most of the species to recover to sustainable levels. Secondly, an ensemble of data-rich assessment models was developed to better incorporate uncertainty by using alternative hypotheses of main parameters. This was the first time an ensemble of models has been used in the Mediterranean to provide management advice. Consistent with data-poor analysis results, the ensemble outcomes indicated that the common sole stock was showing a recovering trend probably due to the effective management actions underway in the area rather than the moderate effort reduction according to the actual management plan. Moreover, back-calculation measurements were used to fit and compare monophasic and biphasic growth curves through the use of non-linear mixed effects models. The analyses revealed that the fitting of the biphasic curve was superior, confirming the theory that growth in size would decrease as a consequence of reproductive effort. A stock assessment simulation showed how the use of the monophasic pattern would result in a critical overestimation of biomass that could lead to a greater risk of overfishing. As a final step, a simulation-testing procedure was applied to determine the best performing reference points using stock-specific characteristic. The procedure could be routinely adopted to increase transparency in reference points calculation enhancing the credibility of scientific advice.

Computational methods applied to undeciphered scripts from the Aegean and Cyprus: Linear A and Cypro-Minoan

The study of ancient, undeciphered scripts presents unique challenges, that depend both on the nature of the problem and on the peculiarities of each writing system. In this thesis, I present two computational approaches that are tailored to two different tasks and writing systems. The first of these methods is aimed at the decipherment of the Linear A afraction signs, in order to discover their numerical values. This is achieved with a combination of constraint programming, ad-hoc metrics and paleographic considerations. The second main contribution of this thesis regards the creation of an unsupervised deep learning model which uses drawings of signs from ancient writing system to learn to distinguish different graphemes in the vector space. This system, which is based on techniques used in the field of computer vision, is adapted to the study of ancient writing systems by incorporating information about sequences in the model, mirroring what is often done in natural language processing. In order to develop this model, the Cypriot Greek Syllabary is used as a target, since this is a deciphered writing system. Finally, this unsupervised model is adapted to the undeciphered Cypro-Minoan and it is used to answer open questions about this script. In particular, by reconstructing multiple allographs that are not agreed upon by paleographers, it supports the idea that Cypro-Minoan is a single script and not a collection of three script like it was proposed in the literature. These results on two different tasks shows that computational methods can be applied to undeciphered scripts, despite the relatively low amount of available data, paving the way for further advancement in paleography using these methods.

Seemingly unrelated linear regression for contaminated data based on Gaussian mixtures

In this thesis, new classes of models for multivariate linear regression defined by finite mixtures of seemingly unrelated contaminated normal regression models and seemingly unrelated contaminated normal cluster-weighted models are illustrated. The main difference between such families is that the covariates are treated as fixed in the former class of models and as random in the latter. Thus, in cluster-weighted models the assignment of the data points to the unknown groups of observations depends also by the covariates. These classes provide an extension to mixture-based regression analysis for modelling multivariate and correlated responses in the presence of mild outliers that allows to specify a different vector of regressors for the prediction of each response. Expectation-conditional maximisation algorithms for the calculation of the maximum likelihood estimate of the model parameters have been derived. As the number of free parameters incresases quadratically with the number of responses and the covariates, analyses based on the proposed models can become unfeasible in practical applications. These problems have been overcome by introducing constraints on the elements of the covariance matrices according to an approach based on the eigen-decomposition of the covariance matrices. The performances of the new models have been studied by simulations and using real datasets in comparison with other models. In order to gain additional flexibility, mixtures of seemingly unrelated contaminated normal regressions models have also been specified so as to allow mixing proportions to be expressed as functions of concomitant covariates. An illustration of the new models with concomitant variables and a study on housing tension in the municipalities of the Emilia-Romagna region based on different types of multivariate linear regression models have been performed.