Deep geometry of subduction below the Andean belt of Colombia as revealed by seismic tomography

In this study new tomographic models of Colombia were calculated. I used the seismicity recorded by the Colombian seismic network during the period 2006-2009. In this time period, the improvement of the seismic network yields more stable hypocentral results with respect to older data set and allows to compute new 3D Vp and Vp/Vs models. The final dataset consists of 10813 P- and 8614 S-arrival times associated to 1405 earthquakes. Tests with synthetic data and resolution analysis indicate that velocity models are well constrained in central, western and southwestern Colombia to a depth of 160 km; the resolution is poor in the northern Colombia and close to Venezuela due to a lack of seismic stations and seismicity. The tomographic models and the relocated seismicity indicate the existence of E-SE subducting Nazca lithosphere beneath central and southern Colombia. The North-South changes in Wadati-Benioff zone, Vp & Vp/Vs pattern and volcanism, show that the downgoing plate is segmented by slab tears E-W directed, suggesting the presence of three sectors. Earthquakes in the northernmost sector represent most of the Colombian seimicity and concentrated on 100-170 km depth interval, beneath the Eastern Cordillera. Here a massive dehydration is inferred, resulting from a delay in the eclogitization of a thickened oceanic crust in a flat-subduction geometry. In this sector a cluster of intermediate-depth seismicity (Bucaramanga Nest) is present beneath the elbow of the Eastern Cordillera, interpreted as the result of massive and highly localized dehydration phenomenon caused by a hyper-hydrous oceanic crust. The central and southern sectors, although different in Vp pattern show, conversely, a continuous, steep and more homogeneous Wadati-Benioff zone with overlying volcanic areas. Here a "normalthickened" oceanic crust is inferred, allowing for a gradual and continuous metamorphic reactions to take place with depth, enabling the fluid migration towards the mantle wedge.

Seismic sequences analysis for estimation of earthquake source parameters: corner frequency, stress drop, and seismic moment observations

The present study has been carried out with the following objectives: i) To investigate the attributes of source parameters of local and regional earthquakes; ii) To estimate, as accurately as possible, M0, fc, Δσ and their standard errors to infer their relationship with source size; iii) To quantify high-frequency earthquake ground motion and to study the source scaling. This work is based on observational data of micro, small and moderate -earthquakes for three selected seismic sequences, namely Parkfield (CA, USA), Maule (Chile) and Ferrara (Italy). For the Parkfield seismic sequence (CA), a data set of 757 (42 clusters) repeating micro-earthquakes (0 ≤ MW ≤ 2), collected using borehole High Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN), have been analyzed and interpreted. We used the coda methodology to compute spectral ratios to obtain accurate values of fc , Δσ, and M0 for three target clusters (San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Hawaii) of our data. We also performed a general regression on peak ground velocities to obtain reliable seismic spectra of all earthquakes. For the Maule seismic sequence, a data set of 172 aftershocks of the 2010 MW 8.8 earthquake (3.7 ≤ MW ≤ 6.2), recorded by more than 100 temporary broadband stations, have been analyzed and interpreted to quantify high-frequency earthquake ground motion in this subduction zone. We completely calibrated the excitation and attenuation of the ground motion in Central Chile. For the Ferrara sequence, we calculated moment tensor solutions for 20 events from MW 5.63 (the largest main event occurred on May 20 2012), down to MW 3.2 by a 1-D velocity model for the crust beneath the Pianura Padana, using all the geophysical and geological information available for the area. The PADANIA model allowed a numerical study on the characteristics of the ground motion in the thick sediments of the flood plain.

Earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard analysis: some insights on the testing phase and the modeling

This thesis is divided in three chapters. In the first chapter we analyse the results of the world forecasting experiment run by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We take the opportunity of this experiment to contribute to the definition of a more robust and reliable statistical procedure to evaluate earthquake forecasting models. We first present the models and the target earthquakes to be forecast. Then we explain the consistency and comparison tests that are used in CSEP experiments to evaluate the performance of the models. Introducing a methodology to create ensemble forecasting models, we show that models, when properly combined, are almost always better performing that any single model. In the second chapter we discuss in depth one of the basic features of PSHA: the declustering of the seismicity rates. We first introduce the Cornell-McGuire method for PSHA and we present the different motivations that stand behind the need of declustering seismic catalogs. Using a theorem of the modern probability (Le Cam's theorem) we show that the declustering is not necessary to obtain a Poissonian behaviour of the exceedances that is usually considered fundamental to transform exceedance rates in exceedance probabilities in the PSHA framework. We present a method to correct PSHA for declustering, building a more realistic PSHA. In the last chapter we explore the methods that are commonly used to take into account the epistemic uncertainty in PSHA. The most widely used method is the logic tree that stands at the basis of the most advanced seismic hazard maps. We illustrate the probabilistic structure of the logic tree, and then we show that this structure is not adequate to describe the epistemic uncertainty. We then propose a new probabilistic framework based on the ensemble modelling that properly accounts for epistemic uncertainties in PSHA.

Seismic tomographic full-waveform inversion for the Vrancea sinking lithosphere structure using the adjoint method.

The Vrancea region, at the south-eastern bend of the Carpathian Mountains in Romania, represents one of the most puzzling seismically active zones of Europe. Beside some shallow seismicity spread across the whole Romanian territory, Vrancea is the place of an intense seismicity with the presence of a cluster of intermediate-depth foci placed in a narrow nearly vertical volume. Although large-scale mantle seismic tomographic studies have revealed the presence of a narrow, almost vertical, high-velocity body in the upper mantle, the nature and the geodynamic of this deep intra-continental seismicity is still questioned. High-resolution seismic tomography could help to reveal more details in the subcrustal structure of Vrancea. Recent developments in computational seismology as well as the availability of parallel computing now allow to potentially retrieve more information out of seismic waveforms and to reach such high-resolution models. This study was aimed to evaluate the application of a full waveform inversion tomography at regional scale for the Vrancea lithosphere using data from the 1999 six months temporary local network CALIXTO. Starting from a detailed 3D Vp, Vs and density model, built on classical travel-time tomography together with gravity data, I evaluated the improvements obtained with the full waveform inversion approach. The latter proved to be highly problem dependent and highly computational expensive. The model retrieved after the first two iterations does not show large variations with respect to the initial model but remains in agreement with previous tomographic models. It presents a well-defined downgoing slab shape high velocity anomaly, composed of a N-S horizontal anomaly in the depths between 40 and 70km linked to a nearly vertical NE-SW anomaly from 70 to 180km.

Evaluation of slope stability under water and seismic load through the Minimum Lithostatic Deviation method

The main objective of this thesis is to obtain a better understanding of the methods to assess the stability of a slope. We have illustrated the principal variants of the Limit Equilibrium (LE) method found in literature, focalizing our attention on the Minimum Lithostatic Deviation (MLD) method, developed by Prof. Tinti and his collaborators (e.g. Tinti and Manucci, 2006, 2008). We had two main goals: the first was to test the MLD method on some real cases. We have selected the case of the Vajont landslide with the objective to reconstruct the conditions that caused the destabilization of Mount Toc, and two sites in the Norwegian margin, where failures has not occurred recently, with the aim to evaluate the present stability state and to assess under which conditions they might be mobilized. The second goal was to study the stability charts by Taylor and by Michalowski, and to use the MLD method to investigate the correctness and adequacy of this engineering tool.

The effect of two-dimensional squat elements on the seismic behavior of building structures

This thesis reports a study on the seismic response of two-dimensional squat elements and their effect on the behavior of building structures. Part A is devoted to the study of unreinforced masonry infills, while part B is focused on reinforced concrete sandwich walls. Part A begins with a comprehensive review of modelling techniques and code provisions for infilled frame structures. Then state-of-the practice techniques are applied for a real case to test the ability of actual modeling techniques to reproduce observed behaviors. The first developments towards a seismic-resistant masonry infill system are presented. Preliminary design recommendations for the seismic design of the seismic-resistant masonry infill are finally provided. Part B is focused on the seismic behavior of a specific reinforced concrete sandwich panel system. First, the results of in-plane psuudostatic cyclic tests are described. Refinements to the conventional modified compression field theory are introduced in order to better simulate the monotonic envelope of the cyclic response. The refinements deal with the constitutive model for the shotcrete in tension and the embedded bars. Then the hysteretic response of the panels is studied according to a continuum damage model. Damage state limits are identified. Design recommendations for the seismic design of the studied reinforced concrete sandwich walls are finally provided.