Characterization of optical transduction-based molecular systems and nanoparticles for the development of chemical sensors

With the increasing importance that nanotechnologies have in everyday life, it is not difficult to realize that also a single molecule, if properly designed, can be a device able to perform useful functions: such a chemical species is called chemosensor, that is a molecule of abiotic origin that signals the presence of matter or energy. Signal transduction is the mechanism by which an interaction of a sensor with an analyte yields a measurable form of energy. When dealing with the design of a chemosensor, we need to take into account a “communication requirement” between its three component: the receptor unit, responsible for the selective analyte binding, the spacer, which controls the geometry of the system and modulates the electronic interaction between the receptor and the signalling unit, whose physico-chemical properties change upon complexation. A luminescent chemosensor communicates a variation of the physico-chemical properties of the receptor unit with a luminescence output signal. This thesis work consists in the characterization of new molecular and nanoparticle-based system which can be used as sensitive materials for the construction of new optical transduction devices able to provide information about the concentration of analytes in solution. In particular two direction were taken. The first is to continue in the development of new chemosensors, that is the first step for the construction of reliable and efficient devices, and in particular the work will be focused on chemosensors for metal ions for biomedical and environmental applications. The second is to study more efficient and complex organized systems, such as derivatized silica nanoparticles. These system can potentially have higher sensitivity than molecular systems, and present many advantages, like the possibility to be ratiometric, higher Stokes shifts and lower signal-to-noise ratio.

Earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard analysis: some insights on the testing phase and the modeling

This thesis is divided in three chapters. In the first chapter we analyse the results of the world forecasting experiment run by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We take the opportunity of this experiment to contribute to the definition of a more robust and reliable statistical procedure to evaluate earthquake forecasting models. We first present the models and the target earthquakes to be forecast. Then we explain the consistency and comparison tests that are used in CSEP experiments to evaluate the performance of the models. Introducing a methodology to create ensemble forecasting models, we show that models, when properly combined, are almost always better performing that any single model. In the second chapter we discuss in depth one of the basic features of PSHA: the declustering of the seismicity rates. We first introduce the Cornell-McGuire method for PSHA and we present the different motivations that stand behind the need of declustering seismic catalogs. Using a theorem of the modern probability (Le Cam's theorem) we show that the declustering is not necessary to obtain a Poissonian behaviour of the exceedances that is usually considered fundamental to transform exceedance rates in exceedance probabilities in the PSHA framework. We present a method to correct PSHA for declustering, building a more realistic PSHA. In the last chapter we explore the methods that are commonly used to take into account the epistemic uncertainty in PSHA. The most widely used method is the logic tree that stands at the basis of the most advanced seismic hazard maps. We illustrate the probabilistic structure of the logic tree, and then we show that this structure is not adequate to describe the epistemic uncertainty. We then propose a new probabilistic framework based on the ensemble modelling that properly accounts for epistemic uncertainties in PSHA.