Social Welfare and Behavioral Public Policies

In this work I discuss several key aspects of welfare economics and policy analysis and I propose two original contributions to the growing field of behavioral public policymaking. After providing a historical perspective of welfare economics and an overview of policy analysis processes in the introductory chapter, in chapter 2 I discuss a debated issue of policymaking, the choice of the social welfare function. I contribute to this debate by proposing an original methodological contribution based on the analysis of the quantitative relationship among different social welfare functional forms commonly used by policy analysts. In chapter 3 I then discuss a behavioral policy to contrast indirect tax evasion based on the use of lotteries. I show that the predictions of my model based on non-expected utility are consistent with observed, and so far unexplained, empirical evidence of the policy success. Finally, in chapter 4 I investigate by mean of a laboratory experiment the effects of social influence on the individual likelihood to engage in altruistic punishment. I show that bystanders’ decision to engage in punishment is influenced by the punishment behavior of their peers and I suggest ways to enact behavioral policies that exploit this finding.

Global and regional sea level variations in the recent past and future: insight from observations and modeling

This work is focused on the analysis of sea–level change (last century), based mainly on instrumental observations. During this period, individual components of sea–level change are investigated, both at global and regional scales. Some of the geophysical processes responsible for current sea-level change such as glacial isostatic adjustments and current melting terrestrial ice sources, have been modeled and compared with observations. A new value of global mean sea level change based of tide gauges observations has been independently assessed in 1.5 mm/year, using corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment obtained with different models as a criterion for the tide gauge selection. The long wavelength spatial variability of the main components of sea–level change has been investigated by means of traditional and new spectral methods. Complex non–linear trends and abrupt sea–level variations shown by tide gauges records have been addressed applying different approaches to regional case studies. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique has been used to analyse tide gauges records from the Adriatic Sea to ascertain the existence of cyclic sea-level variations. An Early Warning approach have been adopted to detect tipping points in sea–level records of North East Pacific and their relationship with oceanic modes. Global sea–level projections to year 2100 have been obtained by a semi-empirical approach based on the artificial neural network method. In addition, a model-based approach has been applied to the case of the Mediterranean Sea, obtaining sea-level projection to year 2050.

Robotic Sensing and Manipulation of Deformable Linear Objects with Learning-based methods

Nowadays robotic applications are widespread and most of the manipulation tasks are efficiently solved. However, Deformable-Objects (DOs) still represent a huge limitation for robots. The main difficulty in DOs manipulation is dealing with the shape and dynamics uncertainties, which prevents the use of model-based approaches (since they are excessively computationally complex) and makes sensory data difficult to interpret. This thesis reports the research activities aimed to address some applications in robotic manipulation and sensing of Deformable-Linear-Objects (DLOs), with particular focus to electric wires. In all the works, a significant effort was made in the study of an effective strategy for analyzing sensory signals with various machine learning algorithms. In the former part of the document, the main focus concerns the wire terminals, i.e. detection, grasping, and insertion. First, a pipeline that integrates vision and tactile sensing is developed, then further improvements are proposed for each module. A novel procedure is proposed to gather and label massive amounts of training images for object detection with minimal human intervention. Together with this strategy, we extend a generic object detector based on Convolutional-Neural-Networks for orientation prediction. The insertion task is also extended by developing a closed-loop control capable to guide the insertion of a longer and curved segment of wire through a hole, where the contact forces are estimated by means of a Recurrent-Neural-Network. In the latter part of the thesis, the interest shifts to the DLO shape. Robotic reshaping of a DLO is addressed by means of a sequence of pick-and-place primitives, while a decision making process driven by visual data learns the optimal grasping locations exploiting Deep Q-learning and finds the best releasing point. The success of the solution leverages on a reliable interpretation of the DLO shape. For this reason, further developments are made on the visual segmentation.

GÉOARCHÉOLOGIE DU VILLAGE: Variabilité des modes d’occupation de la fin du Néolithique à l’âge du Bronze en Italie et en France méridionale. Implications culturelles

Entre la fin du Néolithique et l’âge du Bronze, la présence d’habitats groupés de type village est un phénomène diffus, tant en Italie qu’en France méridionale. Néanmoins, la prise en compte de la variabilité des formes de la stratification des sites interroge. En quoi l’enregistrement sédimentaire des sols d’habitat permet-il d’appréhender la question de l’organisation villageoise et de sa variabilité entre la fin du Néolithique et l’âge du Bronze ? Quelle image cet enregistrement sédimentaire donne-t-il de l’organisation sociale et économique du village ? Afin d’aborder ces questions, nous avons choisi de mener une étude géoarchéologique sur des sites de formes différentes, issus de contextes chrono-culturels et environnementaux variés. La démarche, fondée sur l’emploi de la micromorphologie des sols en tant qu’outil analytique, vise à caractériser l’organisation spatio-temporelle des sols d’occupation à l’échelle du site, selon une approche spatiale des processus de formation de la stratification archéologique. L’élaboration d’un modèle, qui repose sur une classification des micro-faciès sédimentaires selon le système d’activité, et son application à des sites-laboratoires permettent de qualifier les techniques de construction en terre, l’usage du sol et les dynamiques d’occupation propres à chaque site, dans le but de déterminer les comportements socio-économiques et les spécificités du mode de vie villageois enregistrées par les sols. Cette approche permet d’évaluer les constantes et les variables qui qualifient les différents types d’occupation. Le sol, conçu comme matérialité de l’espace villageois, devient ainsi un témoignage direct de la variabilité culturelle et des différentes formes d’organisation des communautés de la fin du Néolithique et de l’âge du Bronze.

Development of a Computer-Based methodology for tolerance selection and optimization applied to the automotive sector

The design optimization of industrial products has always been an essential activity to improve product quality while reducing time-to-market and production costs. Although cost management is very complex and comprises all phases of the product life cycle, the control of geometrical and dimensional variations, known as Dimensional Management (DM), allows compliance with product and process requirements. Hence, the tolerance-cost optimization becomes the main practice to provide an effective application of Design for Tolerancing (DfT) and Design to Cost (DtC) approaches by enabling a connection between product tolerances and associated manufacturing costs. However, despite the growing interest in this topic, a profitable application in the industry of these techniques is hampered by their complexity: the definition of a systematic framework is the key element to improving design optimization, enhancing the concurrent use of Computer-Aided tools and Model-Based Definition (MBD) practices. The present doctorate research aims to define and develop an integrated methodology for product/process design optimization, to better exploit the new capabilities of advanced simulations and tools. By implementing predictive models and multi-disciplinary optimization, a Computer-Aided Integrated framework for tolerance-cost optimization has been proposed to allow the integration of DfT and DtC approaches and their direct application for the design of automotive components. Several case studies have been considered, with the final application of the integrated framework on a high-performance V12 engine assembly, to achieve both functional targets and cost reduction. From a scientific point of view, the proposed methodology provides an improvement for the tolerance-cost optimization of industrial components. The integration of theoretical approaches and Computer-Aided tools allows to analyse the influence of tolerances on both product performance and manufacturing costs. The case studies proved the suitability of the methodology for its application in the industrial field, providing the identification of further areas for improvement and refinement.

Statistical learning of random probability measures

The study of random probability measures is a lively research topic that has attracted interest from different fields in recent years. In this thesis, we consider random probability measures in the context of Bayesian nonparametrics, where the law of a random probability measure is used as prior distribution, and in the context of distributional data analysis, where the goal is to perform inference given avsample from the law of a random probability measure. The contributions contained in this thesis can be subdivided according to three different topics: (i) the use of almost surely discrete repulsive random measures (i.e., whose support points are well separated) for Bayesian model-based clustering, (ii) the proposal of new laws for collections of random probability measures for Bayesian density estimation of partially exchangeable data subdivided into different groups, and (iii) the study of principal component analysis and regression models for probability distributions seen as elements of the 2-Wasserstein space. Specifically, for point (i) above we propose an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior inference, which sidesteps the need of split-merge reversible jump moves typically associated with poor performance, we propose a model for clustering high-dimensional data by introducing a novel class of anisotropic determinantal point processes, and study the distributional properties of the repulsive measures, shedding light on important theoretical results which enable more principled prior elicitation and more efficient posterior simulation algorithms. For point (ii) above, we consider several models suitable for clustering homogeneous populations, inducing spatial dependence across groups of data, extracting the characteristic traits common to all the data-groups, and propose a novel vector autoregressive model to study of growth curves of Singaporean kids. Finally, for point (iii), we propose a novel class of projected statistical methods for distributional data analysis for measures on the real line and on the unit-circle.

Investigation of organic semiconductor/water interfaces for optobioelectronic devices

The thesis investigates the potential of photoactive organic semiconductors as a new class of materials for developing bioelectronic devices that can convert light into biological signals. The materials can be either small molecules or polymers. When these materials interact with aqueous biological fluids, they give rise to various electrochemical phenomena, including photofaradaic or photocapacitive processes, depending on whether photogenerated charges participate in redox processes or accumulate at an interface. The thesis starts by studying the behavior of the H2Pc/PTCDI molecular p/n thin-film heterojunction in contact with aqueous electrolyte. An equivalent circuit model is developed, explaining the measurements and predicting behavior in wireless mode. A systematic study on p-type polymeric thin-films is presented, comparing rr-P3HT with two low bandgap conjugated polymers: PBDB-T and PTB7. The results demonstrate that PTB7 has superior photocurrent performance due to more effective electron-transfer onto acceptor states in solution. Furthermore, the thesis addresses the issue of photovoltage generation for wireless photoelectrodes. An analytical model based on photoactivated charge-transfer across the organic-semiconductor/water interface is developed, explaining the large photovoltages observed for polymeric p-type semiconductor electrodes in water. Then, flash-precipitated nanoparticles made of the same three photoactive polymers are investigated, assessing the influence of fabrication parameters on the stability, structure, and energetics of the nanoparticles. Photocathodic current generation and consequent positive charge accumulation is also investigated. Additionally, newly developed porous P3HT thin-films are tested, showing that porosity increases both the photocurrent and the semiconductor/water interfacial capacity. Finally, the thesis demonstrates the biocompatibility of the materials in in-vitro experiments and shows safe levels of photoinduced intracellular ROS production with p-type polymeric thin-films and nanoparticles. The findings highlight the potential of photoactive organic semiconductors in the development of optobioelectronic devices, demonstrating their ability to convert light into biological signals and interface with biological fluids.