18 resultados para high-stakes assessment


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Coastal flooding poses serious threats to coastal areas around the world, billions of dollars in damage to property and infrastructure, and threatens the lives of millions of people. Therefore, disaster management and risk assessment aims at detecting vulnerability and capacities in order to reduce coastal flood disaster risk. In particular, non-specialized researchers, emergency management personnel, and land use planners require an accurate, inexpensive method to determine and map risk associated with storm surge events and long-term sea level rise associated with climate change. This study contributes to the spatially evaluation and mapping of social-economic-environmental vulnerability and risk at sub-national scale through the development of appropriate tools and methods successfully embedded in a Web-GIS Decision Support System. A new set of raster-based models were studied and developed in order to be easily implemented in the Web-GIS framework with the purpose to quickly assess and map flood hazards characteristics, damage and vulnerability in a Multi-criteria approach. The Web-GIS DSS is developed recurring to open source software and programming language and its main peculiarity is to be available and usable by coastal managers and land use planners without requiring high scientific background in hydraulic engineering. The effectiveness of the system in the coastal risk assessment is evaluated trough its application to a real case study.

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As a large and long-lived species with high economic value, restricted spawning areas and short spawning periods, the Atlantic bluefin tuna (BFT; Thunnus thynnus) is particularly susceptible to over-exploitation. Although BFT have been targeted by fisheries in the Mediterranean Sea for thousands of years, it has only been in these last decades that the exploitation rate has reached far beyond sustainable levels. An understanding of the population structure, spatial dynamics, exploitation rates and the environmental variables that affect BFT is crucial for the conservation of the species. The aims of this PhD project were 1) to assess the accuracy of larval identification methods, 2) determine the genetic structure of modern BFT populations, 3) assess the self-recruitment rate in the Gulf of Mexico and Mediterranean spawning areas, 4) estimate the immigration rate of BFT to feeding aggregations from the various spawning areas, and 5) develop tools capable of investigating the temporal stability of population structuring in the Mediterranean Sea. Several weaknesses in modern morphology-based taxonomy including demographic decline of expert taxonomists, flawed identification keys, reluctance of the taxonomic community to embrace advances in digital communications and a general scarcity of modern user-friendly materials are reviewed. Barcoding of scombrid larvae revealed important differences in the accuracy of the taxonomic identifications carried out by different ichthyoplanktologists following morphology-based methods. Using a Genotyping-by-Sequencing a panel of 95 SNPs was developed and used to characterize the population structuring of BFT and composition of adult feeding aggregations. Using novel molecular techniques, DNA was extracted from bluefin tuna vertebrae excavated from late iron age, ancient roman settlements Byzantine-era Constantinople and a 20th century collection. A second panel of 96 SNPs was developed to genotype historical and modern samples in order to elucidate changes in population structuring and allele frequencies of loci associated with selective traits.

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In this thesis work we will explore and discuss the properties of the gamma-ray sources included in the first Fermi-LAT catalog of sources above 10 GeV (1FHL), by considering both blazars and the non negligible fraction of still unassociated gamma-ray sources (UGS, 13%). We perform a statistical analysis of a complete sample of hard gamma-ray sources, included in the 1FHL catalog, mostly composed of HSP blazars, and we present new VLBI observations of the faintest members of the sample. The new VLBI data, complemented by an extensive search of the archives for brighter sources, are essential to gather a sample as large as possible for the assessment of the significance of the correlation between radio and very high energy (E>100 GeV) emission bands. After the characterization of the statistical properties of HSP blazars and UGS, we use a complementary approach, by focusing on an intensive multi-frequency observing VLBI and gamma-ray campaign carried out for one of the most remarkable and closest HSP blazar Markarian 421.