Bayesian space-time data fusion for real-time forecasting and map uncertainty

Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.

In-situ and real time scanning probe microscopy of organic ultra thin films

In recent decades, Organic Thin Film Transistors (OTFTs) have attracted lots of interest due to their low cost, large area and flexible properties which have brought them to be considered the building blocks of the future organic electronics. Experimentally, devices based on the same organic material deposited in different ways, i.e. by varying the deposition rate of the molecules, show different electrical performance. As predicted theoretically, this is due to the speed and rate by which charge carriers can be transported by hopping in organic thin films, transport that depends on the molecular arrangement of the molecules. This strongly suggests a correlation between the morphology of the organic semiconductor and the performance of the OTFT and hence motivated us to carry out an in-situ real time SPM study of organic semiconductor growth as an almost unprecedent experiment with the aim to fully describe the morphological evolution of the ultra-thin film and find the relevant morphological parameters affecting the OTFT electrical response. For the case of 6T on silicon oxide, we have shown that the growth mechanism is 2D+3D, with a roughening transition at the third layer and a rapid roughening. Relevant morphological parameters have been extracted by the AFM images. We also developed an original mathematical model to estimate theoretically and more accurately than before, the capacitance of an EFM tip in front of a metallic substrate. Finally, we obtained Ultra High Vacuum (UHV) AFM images of 6T at lying molecules layer both on silicon oxide and on top of 6T islands. Moreover, we performed ex-situ AFM imaging on a bilayer film composed of pentacene (a p-type semiconductor) and C60 (an n-type semiconductor).

Drug of abuse analysis: new methods in herbal and biological matrices for medicinal chemistry and forensic investigation

In this Ph.D. project, original and innovative approaches for the quali-quantitative analysis of abuse substances, as well as therapeutic agents with abuse potential and related compounds were designed, developed and validated for application to different fields such as forensics, clinical and pharmaceutical. All the parameters involved in the developed analytical workflows were properly and accurately optimised, from sample collection to sample pretreatment up to the instrumental analysis. Advanced dried blood microsampling technologies have been developed, able of bringing several advantages to the method as a whole, such as significant reduction of solvent use, feasible storage and transportation conditions and enhancement of analyte stability. At the same time, the use of capillary blood allows to increase subject compliance and overall method applicability by exploiting such innovative technologies. Both biological and non-biological samples involved in this project were subjected to optimised pretreatment techniques developed ad-hoc for each target analyte, making also use of advanced microextraction techniques. Finally, original and advanced instrumental analytical methods have been developed based on high and ultra-high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC,UHPLC) coupled to different detection means (mainly mass spectrometry, but also electrochemical, and spectrophotometric detection for screening purpose), and on attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR) for solid-state analysis. Each method has been designed to obtain highly selective, sensitive yet sustainable systems and has been validated according to international guidelines. All the methods developed herein proved to be suitable for the analysis of the compounds under investigation and may be useful tools in medicinal chemistry, pharmaceutical analysis, within clinical studies and forensic investigations.