26 resultados para Seismic Hazard


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The research for this PhD project consisted in the application of the RFs analysis technique to different data-sets of teleseismic events recorded at temporary and permanent stations located in three distinct study regions: Colli Albani area, Northern Apennines and Southern Apennines. We found some velocity models to interpret the structures in these regions, which possess very different geologic and tectonics characteristics and therefore offer interesting case study to face. In the Colli Albani some of the features evidenced in the RFs are shared by all the analyzed stations: the Moho is almost flat and is located at about 23 km depth, and the presence of a relatively shallow limestone layer is a stable feature; contrariwise there are features which vary from station to station, indicating local complexities. Three seismic stations, close to the central part of the former volcanic edifice, display relevant anisotropic signatures­­­ with symmetry axes consistent with the emplacement of the magmatic chamber. Two further anisotropic layers are present at greater depth, in the lower crust and the upper mantle, respectively, with symmetry axes directions related to the evolution of the volcano complex. In Northern Apennines we defined the isotropic structure of the area, finding the depth of the Tyrrhenian (almost 25 km and flat) and Adriatic (40 km and dipping underneath the Apennines crests) Mohos. We determined a zone in which the two Mohos overlap, and identified an anisotropic body in between, involved in the subduction and going down with the Adiratic Moho. We interpreted the downgoing anisotropic layer as generated by post-subduction delamination of the top-slab layer, probably made of metamorphosed crustal rocks caught in the subduction channel and buoyantly rising toward the surface. In the Southern Apennines, we found the Moho depth for 16 seismic stations, and highlighted the presence of an anisotropic layer underneath each station, at about 15-20 km below the whole study area. The moho displays a dome-like geometry, as it is shallow (29 km) in the central part of the study area, whereas it deepens peripherally (down to 45 km); the symmetry axes of anisotropic layer, interpreted as a layer separating the upper and the lower crust, show a moho-related pattern, indicated by the foliation of the layer which is parallel to the Moho trend. Moreover, due to the exceptional seismic event occurred on April 6th next to L’Aquila town, we determined the Vs model for two station located next to the epicenter. An extremely high velocity body is found underneath AQU station at 4-10 km depth, reaching Vs of about 4 km/s, while this body is lacking underneath FAGN station. We compared the presence of this body with other recent works and found an anti-correlation between the high Vs body, the max slip patches and earthquakes distribution. The nature of this body is speculative since such high velocities are consistent with deep crust or upper mantle, but can be interpreted as a as high strength barrier of which the high Vs is a typical connotation.

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Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).

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Array seismology is an useful tool to perform a detailed investigation of the Earth’s interior. Seismic arrays by using the coherence properties of the wavefield are able to extract directivity information and to increase the ratio of the coherent signal amplitude relative to the amplitude of incoherent noise. The Double Beam Method (DBM), developed by Krüger et al. (1993, 1996), is one of the possible applications to perform a refined seismic investigation of the crust and mantle by using seismic arrays. The DBM is based on a combination of source and receiver arrays leading to a further improvement of the signal-to-noise ratio by reducing the error in the location of coherent phases. Previous DBM works have been performed for mantle and core/mantle resolution (Krüger et al., 1993; Scherbaum et al., 1997; Krüger et al., 2001). An implementation of the DBM has been presented at 2D large-scale (Italian data-set for Mw=9.3, Sumatra earthquake) and at 3D crustal-scale as proposed by Rietbrock & Scherbaum (1999), by applying the revised version of Source Scanning Algorithm (SSA; Kao & Shan, 2004). In the 2D application, the rupture front propagation in time has been computed. In 3D application, the study area (20x20x33 km3), the data-set and the source-receiver configurations are related to the KTB-1994 seismic experiment (Jost et al., 1998). We used 60 short-period seismic stations (200-Hz sampling rate, 1-Hz sensors) arranged in 9 small arrays deployed in 2 concentric rings about 1 km (A-arrays) and 5 km (B-array) radius. The coherence values of the scattering points have been computed in the crustal volume, for a finite time-window along all array stations given the hypothesized origin time and source location. The resulting images can be seen as a (relative) joint log-likelihood of any point in the subsurface that have contributed to the full set of observed seismograms.

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The southern Apennines of Italy have been experienced several destructive earthquakes both in historic and recent times. The present day seismicity, characterized by small-to-moderate magnitude earthquakes, was used like a probe to obatin a deeper knowledge of the fault structures where the largest earthquakes occurred in the past. With the aim to infer a three dimensional seismic image both the problem of data quality and the selection of a reliable and robust tomographic inversion strategy have been faced. The data quality has been obtained to develop optimized procedures for the measurements of P- and S-wave arrival times, through the use of polarization filtering and to the application of a refined re-picking technique based on cross-correlation of waveforms. A technique of iterative tomographic inversion, linearized, damped combined with a strategy of multiscale inversion type has been adopted. The retrieved P-wave velocity model indicates the presence of a strong velocity variation along a direction orthogonal to the Apenninic chain. This variation defines two domains which are characterized by a relatively low and high velocity values. From the comparison between the inferred P-wave velocity model with a portion of a structural section available in literature, the high velocity body was correlated with the Apulia carbonatic platforms whereas the low velocity bodies was associated to the basinal deposits. The deduced Vp/Vs ratio shows that the ratio is lower than 1.8 in the shallower part of the model, while for depths ranging between 5 km and 12 km the ratio increases up to 2.1 in correspondence to the area of higher seismicity. This confirms that areas characterized by higher values are more prone to generate earthquakes as a response to the presence of fluids and higher pore-pressures.

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In this study new tomographic models of Colombia were calculated. I used the seismicity recorded by the Colombian seismic network during the period 2006-2009. In this time period, the improvement of the seismic network yields more stable hypocentral results with respect to older data set and allows to compute new 3D Vp and Vp/Vs models. The final dataset consists of 10813 P- and 8614 S-arrival times associated to 1405 earthquakes. Tests with synthetic data and resolution analysis indicate that velocity models are well constrained in central, western and southwestern Colombia to a depth of 160 km; the resolution is poor in the northern Colombia and close to Venezuela due to a lack of seismic stations and seismicity. The tomographic models and the relocated seismicity indicate the existence of E-SE subducting Nazca lithosphere beneath central and southern Colombia. The North-South changes in Wadati-Benioff zone, Vp & Vp/Vs pattern and volcanism, show that the downgoing plate is segmented by slab tears E-W directed, suggesting the presence of three sectors. Earthquakes in the northernmost sector represent most of the Colombian seimicity and concentrated on 100-170 km depth interval, beneath the Eastern Cordillera. Here a massive dehydration is inferred, resulting from a delay in the eclogitization of a thickened oceanic crust in a flat-subduction geometry. In this sector a cluster of intermediate-depth seismicity (Bucaramanga Nest) is present beneath the elbow of the Eastern Cordillera, interpreted as the result of massive and highly localized dehydration phenomenon caused by a hyper-hydrous oceanic crust. The central and southern sectors, although different in Vp pattern show, conversely, a continuous, steep and more homogeneous Wadati-Benioff zone with overlying volcanic areas. Here a "normalthickened" oceanic crust is inferred, allowing for a gradual and continuous metamorphic reactions to take place with depth, enabling the fluid migration towards the mantle wedge.

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The present study has been carried out with the following objectives: i) To investigate the attributes of source parameters of local and regional earthquakes; ii) To estimate, as accurately as possible, M0, fc, Δσ and their standard errors to infer their relationship with source size; iii) To quantify high-frequency earthquake ground motion and to study the source scaling. This work is based on observational data of micro, small and moderate -earthquakes for three selected seismic sequences, namely Parkfield (CA, USA), Maule (Chile) and Ferrara (Italy). For the Parkfield seismic sequence (CA), a data set of 757 (42 clusters) repeating micro-earthquakes (0 ≤ MW ≤ 2), collected using borehole High Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN), have been analyzed and interpreted. We used the coda methodology to compute spectral ratios to obtain accurate values of fc , Δσ, and M0 for three target clusters (San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Hawaii) of our data. We also performed a general regression on peak ground velocities to obtain reliable seismic spectra of all earthquakes. For the Maule seismic sequence, a data set of 172 aftershocks of the 2010 MW 8.8 earthquake (3.7 ≤ MW ≤ 6.2), recorded by more than 100 temporary broadband stations, have been analyzed and interpreted to quantify high-frequency earthquake ground motion in this subduction zone. We completely calibrated the excitation and attenuation of the ground motion in Central Chile. For the Ferrara sequence, we calculated moment tensor solutions for 20 events from MW 5.63 (the largest main event occurred on May 20 2012), down to MW 3.2 by a 1-D velocity model for the crust beneath the Pianura Padana, using all the geophysical and geological information available for the area. The PADANIA model allowed a numerical study on the characteristics of the ground motion in the thick sediments of the flood plain.

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The Vrancea region, at the south-eastern bend of the Carpathian Mountains in Romania, represents one of the most puzzling seismically active zones of Europe. Beside some shallow seismicity spread across the whole Romanian territory, Vrancea is the place of an intense seismicity with the presence of a cluster of intermediate-depth foci placed in a narrow nearly vertical volume. Although large-scale mantle seismic tomographic studies have revealed the presence of a narrow, almost vertical, high-velocity body in the upper mantle, the nature and the geodynamic of this deep intra-continental seismicity is still questioned. High-resolution seismic tomography could help to reveal more details in the subcrustal structure of Vrancea. Recent developments in computational seismology as well as the availability of parallel computing now allow to potentially retrieve more information out of seismic waveforms and to reach such high-resolution models. This study was aimed to evaluate the application of a full waveform inversion tomography at regional scale for the Vrancea lithosphere using data from the 1999 six months temporary local network CALIXTO. Starting from a detailed 3D Vp, Vs and density model, built on classical travel-time tomography together with gravity data, I evaluated the improvements obtained with the full waveform inversion approach. The latter proved to be highly problem dependent and highly computational expensive. The model retrieved after the first two iterations does not show large variations with respect to the initial model but remains in agreement with previous tomographic models. It presents a well-defined downgoing slab shape high velocity anomaly, composed of a N-S horizontal anomaly in the depths between 40 and 70km linked to a nearly vertical NE-SW anomaly from 70 to 180km.

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The main objective of this thesis is to obtain a better understanding of the methods to assess the stability of a slope. We have illustrated the principal variants of the Limit Equilibrium (LE) method found in literature, focalizing our attention on the Minimum Lithostatic Deviation (MLD) method, developed by Prof. Tinti and his collaborators (e.g. Tinti and Manucci, 2006, 2008). We had two main goals: the first was to test the MLD method on some real cases. We have selected the case of the Vajont landslide with the objective to reconstruct the conditions that caused the destabilization of Mount Toc, and two sites in the Norwegian margin, where failures has not occurred recently, with the aim to evaluate the present stability state and to assess under which conditions they might be mobilized. The second goal was to study the stability charts by Taylor and by Michalowski, and to use the MLD method to investigate the correctness and adequacy of this engineering tool.

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This thesis reports a study on the seismic response of two-dimensional squat elements and their effect on the behavior of building structures. Part A is devoted to the study of unreinforced masonry infills, while part B is focused on reinforced concrete sandwich walls. Part A begins with a comprehensive review of modelling techniques and code provisions for infilled frame structures. Then state-of-the practice techniques are applied for a real case to test the ability of actual modeling techniques to reproduce observed behaviors. The first developments towards a seismic-resistant masonry infill system are presented. Preliminary design recommendations for the seismic design of the seismic-resistant masonry infill are finally provided. Part B is focused on the seismic behavior of a specific reinforced concrete sandwich panel system. First, the results of in-plane psuudostatic cyclic tests are described. Refinements to the conventional modified compression field theory are introduced in order to better simulate the monotonic envelope of the cyclic response. The refinements deal with the constitutive model for the shotcrete in tension and the embedded bars. Then the hysteretic response of the panels is studied according to a continuum damage model. Damage state limits are identified. Design recommendations for the seismic design of the studied reinforced concrete sandwich walls are finally provided.