17 resultados para Risk Evaluation


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This PhD thesis aimed to assess the status of common sole, one of the main commercial stocks in the Adriatic Sea, using a mix of conventional and innovative techniques to provide more reliable estimates of stock status compared to past advice. First, a meta-analysis was carried out using data-poor assessment model to analyze the whole catch assemblage of rapido fishery. The outcomes were used to estimate rebuilding time and forecast catches under different harvest control rule scenarios, with a reduction of 20% of fishing effort being suggested as a way to allow most of the species to recover to sustainable levels. Secondly, an ensemble of data-rich assessment models was developed to better incorporate uncertainty by using alternative hypotheses of main parameters. This was the first time an ensemble of models has been used in the Mediterranean to provide management advice. Consistent with data-poor analysis results, the ensemble outcomes indicated that the common sole stock was showing a recovering trend probably due to the effective management actions underway in the area rather than the moderate effort reduction according to the actual management plan. Moreover, back-calculation measurements were used to fit and compare monophasic and biphasic growth curves through the use of non-linear mixed effects models. The analyses revealed that the fitting of the biphasic curve was superior, confirming the theory that growth in size would decrease as a consequence of reproductive effort. A stock assessment simulation showed how the use of the monophasic pattern would result in a critical overestimation of biomass that could lead to a greater risk of overfishing. As a final step, a simulation-testing procedure was applied to determine the best performing reference points using stock-specific characteristic. The procedure could be routinely adopted to increase transparency in reference points calculation enhancing the credibility of scientific advice.

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Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a chronic, progressive neurodegenerative disease, characterized by the impairment of mnesic and cognitive functions, that represents the most frequent type of dementia in older people worldwide. Aging is the most important risk factor for the sporadic form of the pathology and it is associated to the progressive impairment of the proteostasis network. The endoplasmic reticulum (ER), the main cellular actor involved in proteostasis, appears significantly compromised in AD due to the accumulation of β-amyloid (Aβ) protein and phosphorylated-tau protein. Increasing proteins misfolding activates a specific cellular response known as Unfolded Protein response (UPR) which orchestrates the recovery of ER function. The aim of the present study was to investigate the role of UPR and aging process in a murine model of AD induced by intracerebroventricular (i.c.v.) injection of Aβ1-42 oligomers at 3 or 18 months. The oligomers injection in aged animals caused the increased of memory impairment, oxidative stress, and the depletion of glutathione reserve. Furthermore, the RNA-sequencing analysis was performed and the bioinformatic analysis showed the enrichment of several pathways involved in neurodegeneration and protein regulations. The following analysis highlighted the significant dysregulation of the three branches of the UPR, the protein kinase RNA-like ER kinase (PERK), inositol-requiring protein 1α (IRE1α) and activating transcription factor 6 (ATF-6). In turn, ER stress affected the PI3K/Akt/Gsk3β and MAPK/ERK pathways, highlighting Mapkapk5 as a potential marker of the neurodegenerative process, which regulation could lead to the definition of new pharmacological and neuroprotective strategies to counteract AD.