Seismic sequences analysis for estimation of earthquake source parameters: corner frequency, stress drop, and seismic moment observations

The present study has been carried out with the following objectives: i) To investigate the attributes of source parameters of local and regional earthquakes; ii) To estimate, as accurately as possible, M0, fc, Δσ and their standard errors to infer their relationship with source size; iii) To quantify high-frequency earthquake ground motion and to study the source scaling. This work is based on observational data of micro, small and moderate -earthquakes for three selected seismic sequences, namely Parkfield (CA, USA), Maule (Chile) and Ferrara (Italy). For the Parkfield seismic sequence (CA), a data set of 757 (42 clusters) repeating micro-earthquakes (0 ≤ MW ≤ 2), collected using borehole High Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN), have been analyzed and interpreted. We used the coda methodology to compute spectral ratios to obtain accurate values of fc , Δσ, and M0 for three target clusters (San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Hawaii) of our data. We also performed a general regression on peak ground velocities to obtain reliable seismic spectra of all earthquakes. For the Maule seismic sequence, a data set of 172 aftershocks of the 2010 MW 8.8 earthquake (3.7 ≤ MW ≤ 6.2), recorded by more than 100 temporary broadband stations, have been analyzed and interpreted to quantify high-frequency earthquake ground motion in this subduction zone. We completely calibrated the excitation and attenuation of the ground motion in Central Chile. For the Ferrara sequence, we calculated moment tensor solutions for 20 events from MW 5.63 (the largest main event occurred on May 20 2012), down to MW 3.2 by a 1-D velocity model for the crust beneath the Pianura Padana, using all the geophysical and geological information available for the area. The PADANIA model allowed a numerical study on the characteristics of the ground motion in the thick sediments of the flood plain.

Earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard analysis: some insights on the testing phase and the modeling

This thesis is divided in three chapters. In the first chapter we analyse the results of the world forecasting experiment run by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We take the opportunity of this experiment to contribute to the definition of a more robust and reliable statistical procedure to evaluate earthquake forecasting models. We first present the models and the target earthquakes to be forecast. Then we explain the consistency and comparison tests that are used in CSEP experiments to evaluate the performance of the models. Introducing a methodology to create ensemble forecasting models, we show that models, when properly combined, are almost always better performing that any single model. In the second chapter we discuss in depth one of the basic features of PSHA: the declustering of the seismicity rates. We first introduce the Cornell-McGuire method for PSHA and we present the different motivations that stand behind the need of declustering seismic catalogs. Using a theorem of the modern probability (Le Cam's theorem) we show that the declustering is not necessary to obtain a Poissonian behaviour of the exceedances that is usually considered fundamental to transform exceedance rates in exceedance probabilities in the PSHA framework. We present a method to correct PSHA for declustering, building a more realistic PSHA. In the last chapter we explore the methods that are commonly used to take into account the epistemic uncertainty in PSHA. The most widely used method is the logic tree that stands at the basis of the most advanced seismic hazard maps. We illustrate the probabilistic structure of the logic tree, and then we show that this structure is not adequate to describe the epistemic uncertainty. We then propose a new probabilistic framework based on the ensemble modelling that properly accounts for epistemic uncertainties in PSHA.

Behaviour and applications of elastic waves in structures and metamaterials

The present thesis focuses on elastic waves behaviour in ordinary structures as well as in acousto-elastic metamaterials via numerical and experimental applications. After a brief introduction on the behaviour of elastic guided waves in the framework of non-destructive evaluation (NDE) and structural health monitoring (SHM) and on the study of elastic waves propagation in acousto-elastic metamaterials, dispersion curves for thin-walled beams and arbitrary cross-section waveguides are extracted via Semi-Analytical Finite Element (SAFE) methods. Thus, a novel strategy tackling signal dispersion to locate defects in irregular waveguides is proposed and numerically validated. Finally, a time-reversal and laser-vibrometry based procedure for impact location is numerically and experimentally tested. In the second part, an introduction and a brief review of the basic definitions necessary to describe acousto-elastic metamaterials is provided. A numerical approach to extract dispersion properties in such structures is highlighted. Afterwards, solid-solid and solid-fluid phononic systems are discussed via numerical applications. In particular, band structures and transmission power spectra are predicted for 1P-2D, 2P-2D and 2P-3D phononic systems. In addition, attenuation bands in the ultrasonic as well as in the sonic frequency regimes are experimentally investigated. In the experimental validation, PZTs in a pitch-catch configuration and laser vibrometric measurements are performed on a PVC phononic plate in the ultrasonic frequency range and sound insulation index is computed for a 2P-3D phononic barrier in the sonic frequency range. In both cases the numerical-experimental results comparison confirms the existence of the numerical predicted band-gaps. Finally, the feasibility of an innovative passive isolation strategy based on giant elastic metamaterials is numerically proved to be practical for civil structures. In particular, attenuation of seismic waves is demonstrated via finite elements analyses. Further, a parametric study shows that depending on the soil properties, such an earthquake-proof barrier could lead to significant reduction of the superstructure displacement.