Bayesian space-time data fusion for real-time forecasting and map uncertainty

Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.

Sviluppo e caratterizzazione di bulk superconduttori in MgB2 per sistemi di levitazione

Superconduttori bulk in MgB2, ottenuti con tecnologia Mg-RLI brevettata da Edison Spa, sono stati oggetto di un'approfondita analisi in termini di forze di levitazione. Questo studio è stato preliminare per la progettazione di un innovativo sistema di levitazione lineare. I risultati ottenuti sperimentalmente sono stati validati attraverso modelli numerici sviluppati ad hoc. I campioni oggetto dello studio sono tre bulk in MgB2 rappresentativi delle tipiche forme usate nelle applicazioni reali: un disco, un cilindro, una piastra. I bulk sono stati misurati con un sistema di misura per le forze di levitazione realizzato a tale scopo. Un protocollo sperimentale è stato seguito per la caratterizzazione di base, sia in condizioni Field Cooling sia Zero Field Cooling, al quale sono state affiancate prove specifiche come la possibilità di mantenere inalterate le proprietà superconduttive attraverso la giunzione di più campioni con la tecnologia Mg-RLI. Un modello numerico è stato sviluppato per convalidare i risultati sperimentali e per studiare l'elettrodinamica della levitazione. Diverse configurazioni di rotori magnetici sono state accoppiate con un cilindro in MgB2 con lo scopo di valutare la soluzione ottimale; questo tema è stato apporofondito attraverso lo sviluppo di un software di simulazione che può tenere conto sia del numero di magneti sia della presenza di anelli in materiale magneti intercalati fra di essi. Studi analoghi sono stati portati avanti su una piastra di MgB2 per simulare il comportamento di una geometria piana. Un sistema di raffreddamento innovativo basato sull'azoto solido è stato studiato per poterlo accoppiare con un sistema di levitazione. Il criostato progettato è costituito da due dewar, uno dentro l'altro; quello interno ha lo scopo di raffreddare l'MgB2 mentre quello esterno di limitare delle perdite verso l'esterno. Il criopattino così ottenuto è accoppiato in condizioni FC ad una rotaia formata da magneti permanenti in NdFeB.

Fatigue and Damage Tolerance in Primary Composite Aeronautical Structures

The challenging requirements set on new full composite aeronautical structures are mostly related to the demonstration of damage tolerance capability of their primary structures, required by the airworthiness bodies. And while composite-made structures inherently demonstrate exceptional fatigue properties, when put in real life working conditions, a number of external factors can lead to impact damages thus reducing drastically their fatigue resistance due to fiber delamination, disbonding or breaking. This PhD aims towards contributing to the better understanding of the behavior of the primary composite aeronautical structure after near-edge impacts which are inevitable during the service life of an aircraft. The behavior of CFRP structures after impacts in only one small piece of the big picture which is the certification of CFRP built aircraft, where several other parameters need to be evaluated in order to fulfill the airworthiness requirements. These parameters are also discussed in this PhD thesis in order to give a better understanding of the complex task of CFRP structure certification, in which behavior of the impacted structure plays an important role. An experimental and numerical campaign was carried out in order to determine the level of delamination damage in CFRP specimens after near-edge impacts. By calibrating the numerical model with experimental data, it was possible, for different configurations and energy levels, to predict the extension of a delamination in a CFRP structure and to estimate its residual static strength using a very simple but robust technique. The original contribution of this work to the analysis of CFRP structures is the creation of a model which could be applicable to wide range of thicknesses and stacking sequences of CFRP structures, thus potentially being suitable for industrial application, as well.

Flow of Complex Fluids in Geological Fractures

In this study, the lubrication theory is used to model flow in geological fractures and analyse the compound effect of medium heterogeneity and complex fluid rheology. Such studies are warranted as the Newtonian rheology is adopted in most numerical models because of its ease of use, despite non-Newtonian fluids being ubiquitous in subsurface applications. Past studies on Newtonian and non-Newtonian flow in single rock fractures are summarized in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 presents analytical and semi-analytical conceptual models for flow of a shear-thinning fluid in rock fractures having a simplified geometry, providing a first insight on their permeability. in Chapter 3, a lubrication-based 2-D numerical model is first implemented to solve flow of an Ellis fluid in rough fractures; the finite-volumes model developed is more computationally effective than conducting full 3-D simulations, and introduces an acceptable approximation as long as the flow is laminar and the fracture walls relatively smooth. The compound effect of shear-thinning fluid nature and fracture heterogeneity promotes flow localization, which in turn affects the performance of industrial activities and remediation techniques. In Chapter 4, a Monte Carlo framework is adopted to produce multiple realizations of synthetic fractures, and analyze their ensemble statistics pertaining flow for a variety of real non-Newtonian fluids; the Newtonian case is used as a benchmark. In Chapter 5 and Chapter 6, a conceptual model of the hydro-mechanical aspects of backflow occurring in the last phase of hydraulic fracturing is proposed and experimentally validated, quantifying the effects of the relaxation induced by the flow.

Design and Off-design modelling of advanced Power-to-Gas energy storage systems

Power-to-Gas storage systems have the potential to address grid-stability issues that arise when an increasing share of power is generated from sources that have a highly variable output. Although the proof-of-concept of these has been promising, the behaviour of the processes in off-design conditions is not easily predictable. The primary aim of this PhD project was to evaluate the performance of an original Power-to-Gas system, made up of innovative components. To achieve this, a numerical model has been developed to simulate the characteristics and the behaviour of the several components when the whole system is coupled with a renewable source. The developed model has been applied to a large variety of scenarios, evaluating the performance of the considered process and exploiting a limited amount of experimental data. The model has been then used to compare different Power-to-Gas concepts, in a real scenario of functioning. Several goals have been achieved. In the concept phase, the possibility to thermally integrate the high temperature components has been demonstrated. Then, the parameters that affect the energy performance of a Power-to-Gas system coupled with a renewable source have been identified, providing general recommendations on the design of hybrid systems; these parameters are: 1) the ratio between the storage system size and the renewable generator size; 2) the type of coupled renewable source; 3) the related production profile. Finally, from the results of the comparative analysis, it is highlighted that configurations with a highly oversized renewable source with respect to the storage system show the maximum achievable profit.

Oceanic Near-inertial internal waves generation, propagation and interaction with mesoscale dynamics

Oceans play a key role in the climate system, being the largest heat sinks on Earth. Part of the energy balance of ocean circulation is driven by the Near-inertial internal waves (NIWs). Strong NIWs are observed during a multi-platform, multi-disciplinary and multi-scale campaign led by the NATO-STO CMRE in autumn 2017 in the Ligurian Sea (northwestern Mediterranean Sea). The objectives of this work are as follows: characterise the studied area at different scales; study the NIWs generation and their propagation; estimate the NIWs properties; study the interaction between NIWs and mesoscale structures. This work provides, to the author’s knowledge, the first characterization of NIWs in the Mediterranean Sea. The near-surface NIWs observed at the fixed moorings are locally generated by wind bursts while the deeper waves originate in other regions and arrive at the moorings several days later. Most of the observed NIWs energy propagates downward with a mean vertical group velocity of (2.2±0.3) ⋅10-4 m s-1. On average, the NIWs have an amplitude of 0.13 m s-1 and mean horizontal and vertical wavelengths of 43±25 km and 125±35 m, while shorter wavelengths are observed at the near-coastal mooring, 36±2 km and 33±2 m, respectively. Most of the observed NIWs are blue shifted and reach a value 9% higher than the local inertial frequency. Only two observed NIWs are characterised by a redshift (up to 3% lower than the local inertial frequency). In support of the in situ observations, a high resolution numerical model is implemented using NEMO (Madec et al., 2019). Results show that anticyclones (cyclones) shift the frequency of NIWs to lower (higher) frequencies with respect to the local inertial frequency. Anticyclones facilitate the downward propagation of NIW energy, while cyclones dampen it. Absence of NIWs energy within an anticyclone is also investigated.

Active control of sound radiated by vibrating surfaces on a McLaren supercar

Sound radiators based on forced vibrations of plates are becoming widely employed, mainly for active sound enhancement and noise cancelling systems, both in music and automotive environment. Active sound enhancement solutions based on electromagnetic shakers hence find increasing interest. Mostly diffused applications deal with active noise control (ANC) and active vibration control systems for improving the acoustic experience inside or outside the vehicle. This requires investigating vibrational and, consequently, vibro-acoustic characteristics of vehicles. Therefore, simulation and processing methods capable of reducing the calculation time and providing high-accuracy results, are strongly demanded. In this work, an ideal case study on rectangular plates in fully clamped conditions preceded a real case analysis on vehicle panels. The sound radiation generated by a vibrating flat or shallow surface can be calculated by means of Rayleigh’s integral. The analytical solution of the problem is here calculated implementing the equations in MATLAB. Then, the results are compared with a numerical model developed in COMSOL Multiphysics, employing Finite Element Method (FEM). A very good matching between analytical and numerical solutions is shown, thus the cross validation of the two methods is achieved. The shift to the real case study, on a McLaren super car, led to the development of a mixed analytical-numerical method. Optimum results were obtained with mini shakers excitement, showing good matching of the recorded SPL with the calculated one over all the selected frequency band. In addition, a set of directivity measurements of the hood were realized, to start studying the spatiality of sound, which is fundamental to active noise control systems.

Assimilation of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite data in a regional numerical weather prediction model using a one-dimensional variational approach

The quality of temperature and humidity retrievals from the infrared SEVIRI sensors on the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites is assessed by means of a one dimensional variational algorithm. The study is performed with the aim of improving the spatial and temporal resolution of available observations to feed analysis systems designed for high resolution regional scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The non-hydrostatic forecast model COSMO (COnsortium for Small scale MOdelling) in the ARPA-SIM operational configuration is used to provide background fields. Only clear sky observations over sea are processed. An optimised 1D–VAR set-up comprising of the two water vapour and the three window channels is selected. It maximises the reduction of errors in the model backgrounds while ensuring ease of operational implementation through accurate bias correction procedures and correct radiative transfer simulations. The 1D–VAR retrieval quality is firstly quantified in relative terms employing statistics to estimate the reduction in the background model errors. Additionally the absolute retrieval accuracy is assessed comparing the analysis with independent radiosonde and satellite observations. The inclusion of satellite data brings a substantial reduction in the warm and dry biases present in the forecast model. Moreover it is shown that the retrieval profiles generated by the 1D–VAR are well correlated with the radiosonde measurements. Subsequently the 1D–VAR technique is applied to two three–dimensional case–studies: a false alarm case–study occurred in Friuli–Venezia–Giulia on the 8th of July 2004 and a heavy precipitation case occurred in Emilia–Romagna region between 9th and 12th of April 2005. The impact of satellite data for these two events is evaluated in terms of increments in the integrated water vapour and saturation water vapour over the column, in the 2 meters temperature and specific humidity and in the surface temperature. To improve the 1D–VAR technique a method to calculate flow–dependent model error covariance matrices is also assessed. The approach employs members from an ensemble forecast system generated by perturbing physical parameterisation schemes inside the model. The improved set–up applied to the case of 8th of July 2004 shows a substantial neutral impact.