Networks, Uncertainty, Applications and a Crusade for Optimality

In this thesis we address a collection of Network Design problems which are strongly motivated by applications from Telecommunications, Logistics and Bioinformatics. In most cases we justify the need of taking into account uncertainty in some of the problem parameters, and different Robust optimization models are used to hedge against it. Mixed integer linear programming formulations along with sophisticated algorithmic frameworks are designed, implemented and rigorously assessed for the majority of the studied problems. The obtained results yield the following observations: (i) relevant real problems can be effectively represented as (discrete) optimization problems within the framework of network design; (ii) uncertainty can be appropriately incorporated into the decision process if a suitable robust optimization model is considered; (iii) optimal, or nearly optimal, solutions can be obtained for large instances if a tailored algorithm, that exploits the structure of the problem, is designed; (iv) a systematic and rigorous experimental analysis allows to understand both, the characteristics of the obtained (robust) solutions and the behavior of the proposed algorithm.

Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.

Adipose-derived stem cells and tissue revascularization: enhancing islet survival and performance for diabetes care.

Pancreatic islet transplantation represents a fascinating procedure that, at the moment, can be considered as alternative to standard insulin treatment or pancreas transplantation only for selected categories of patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus. Among the factors responsible for leading to poor islet engraftment, hypoxia plays an important role. Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) were recently used in animal models of islet transplantation not only to reduce allograft rejection, but also to promote revascularization. Currently adipose tissue represents a novel and good source of MSCs. Moreover, the capability of adipose-derived stem cells (ASCs) to improve islet graft revascularization was recently reported after hybrid transplantation in mice. Within this context, we have previously shown that hyaluronan esters of butyric and retinoic acids can significantly enhance the rescuing potential of human MSCs. Here we evaluated whether ex vivo preconditioning of human ASCs (hASCs) with a mixture of hyaluronic (HA), butyric (BU), and retinoic (RA) acids may result in optimization of graft revascularization after islet/stem cell intrahepatic cotransplantation in syngeneic diabetic rats. We demonstrated that hASCs exposed to the mixture of molecules are able to increase the secretion of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), as well as the transcription of angiogenic genes, including VEGF, KDR (kinase insert domain receptor), and hepatocyte growth factor (HGF). Rats transplanted with islets cocultured with preconditioned hASCs exhibited a better glycemic control than rats transplanted with an equal volume of islets and control hASCs. Cotransplantation with preconditioned hASCs was also associated with enhanced islet revascularization in vivo, as highlighted by graft morphological analysis. The observed increase in islet graft revascularization and function suggests that our method of stem cell preconditioning may represent a novel strategy to remarkably improve the efficacy of islets-hMSCs cotransplantation.