Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.

Definition, realization and evaluation of a software reference architecture for use in space applications

A recent initiative of the European Space Agency (ESA) aims at the definition and adoption of a software reference architecture for use in on-board software of future space missions. Our PhD project placed in the context of that effort. At the outset of our work we gathered all the industrial needs relevant to ESA and all the main European space stakeholders and we were able to consolidate a set of technical high-level requirements for the fulfillment of them. The conclusion we reached from that phase confirmed that the adoption of a software reference architecture was indeed the best solution for the fulfillment of the high-level requirements. The software reference architecture we set on building rests on four constituents: (i) a component model, to design the software as a composition of individually verifiable and reusable software units; (ii) a computational model, to ensure that the architectural description of the software is statically analyzable; (iii) a programming model, to ensure that the implementation of the design entities conforms with the semantics, the assumptions and the constraints of the computational model; (iv) a conforming execution platform, to actively preserve at run time the properties asserted by static analysis. The nature, feasibility and fitness of constituents (ii), (iii) and (iv), were already proved by the author in an international project that preceded the commencement of the PhD work. The core of the PhD project was therefore centered on the design and prototype implementation of constituent (i), a component model. Our proposed component model is centered on: (i) rigorous separation of concerns, achieved with the support for design views and by careful allocation of concerns to the dedicated software entities; (ii) the support for specification and model-based analysis of extra-functional properties; (iii) the inclusion space-specific concerns.

Global and regional sea level variations in the recent past and future: insight from observations and modeling

This work is focused on the analysis of sea–level change (last century), based mainly on instrumental observations. During this period, individual components of sea–level change are investigated, both at global and regional scales. Some of the geophysical processes responsible for current sea-level change such as glacial isostatic adjustments and current melting terrestrial ice sources, have been modeled and compared with observations. A new value of global mean sea level change based of tide gauges observations has been independently assessed in 1.5 mm/year, using corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment obtained with different models as a criterion for the tide gauge selection. The long wavelength spatial variability of the main components of sea–level change has been investigated by means of traditional and new spectral methods. Complex non–linear trends and abrupt sea–level variations shown by tide gauges records have been addressed applying different approaches to regional case studies. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique has been used to analyse tide gauges records from the Adriatic Sea to ascertain the existence of cyclic sea-level variations. An Early Warning approach have been adopted to detect tipping points in sea–level records of North East Pacific and their relationship with oceanic modes. Global sea–level projections to year 2100 have been obtained by a semi-empirical approach based on the artificial neural network method. In addition, a model-based approach has been applied to the case of the Mediterranean Sea, obtaining sea-level projection to year 2050.

Preparation and characterization of multifunctional bio-based polymers exhibiting enhanced properties

Driven by environmental reasons and the expected depletion of crude oil, bio-based polymers are currently undergoing a renaissance in the attempt to replace fossil-based ones. The present work aims at contributing in the development of the steps that start from biomass and move to new polymeric multifunctional materials. The study focuses on two bio-based building blocks (itaconic and vanillic acids) characterized by exploitable functionalities, i.e. a lateral double bond and a substituted aromatic ring respectively, able to confer interesting properties to the final polymers. The lateral double bond of dimethyl itaconate was functionalized via thia-Michael addition reaction obtaining a thermo-stable building block that can undergo polycondensation under classical conditions of reaction. The addition of a long lateral chain allows the polymer to express antimicrobial activity against Staphylococcus aureus making it attractive for packaging and targeting antimicrobial applications. Moreover, the architecture of the homopolymer was modified by means of copolymerization with dimethyl 2,5-furandicarboxylate thus improving the rigidity and obtaining a thermo-processable material. Potential applications as thermoset or thermoplastic material have been discussed. As concerns vanillic acid, the presence of aromatic rings on the polymer backbone imparts high thermal stability, but brittle behaviour in the homopolymer. Therefore, the architecture of the polyester was successfully tuned by means of copolymerization with a flexible bio-based comonomer, i.e. ω-pentadecalactone, providing processable random copolymers. An in depth investigation of water transport mechanism has been undertaken on the synthesized polyesters. Since the copolymers present a succession of aromatic and aliphatic units, as a consequence of the chemical structure water vapor permeability interposes between polyethylene and poly(ethylene terephthalate) proving that the copolyesters are suitable for packaging applications. Moving towards a sustainable model of development, novel sustainable synthetic pathways for the eco-design of new bio-based polymeric structures with high value functionalities and different potential applications have been successfully developed.

Study of low grade temperature CCHP systems for the realization of zero power buildings

Combined Cooling Heat and Power Generation (CCHP) or trigeneration has been considered worldwide as a suitable alternative to traditional energy systems in terms of significant energy saving and environmental conservation. The development and evaluation of a solar driven micro-CCHP system based on a ORC cogenerator and an Adsorption Chiller (AC) experimental prototypes has been the focus of this PhD research. The specific objectives of the overall project are: • To design, construct and evaluate an innovative Adsorption Chiller in order to improve the performances of the AC technology. • To thermodynamically model the proposed micro-scale solar driven CHP system and to prove that the concept of trigeneration through solar energy combined with an organic Rankine turbine cycle (ORC) and an adsorption chiller (AC) is suitable for residential applications.

Adaptable security in the cloud-to-thing continuum

Recent technological advancements have played a key role in seamlessly integrating cloud, edge, and Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, giving rise to the Cloud-to-Thing Continuum paradigm. This cloud model connects many heterogeneous resources that generate a large amount of data and collaborate to deliver next-generation services. While it has the potential to reshape several application domains, the number of connected entities remarkably broadens the security attack surface. One of the main problems is the lack of security measures to adapt to the dynamic and evolving conditions of the Cloud-To-Thing Continuum. To address this challenge, this dissertation proposes novel adaptable security mechanisms. Adaptable security is the capability of security controls, systems, and protocols to dynamically adjust to changing conditions and scenarios. However, since the design and development of novel security mechanisms can be explored from different perspectives and levels, we place our attention on threat modeling and access control. The contributions of the thesis can be summarized as follows. First, we introduce a model-based methodology that secures the design of edge and cyber-physical systems. This solution identifies threats, security controls, and moving target defense techniques based on system features. Then, we focus on access control management. Since access control policies are subject to modifications, we evaluate how they can be efficiently shared among distributed areas, highlighting the effectiveness of distributed ledger technologies. Furthermore, we propose a risk-based authorization middleware, adjusting permissions based on real-time data, and a federated learning framework that enhances trustworthiness by weighting each client's contributions according to the quality of their partial models. Finally, since authorization revocation is another critical concern, we present an efficient revocation scheme for verifiable credentials in IoT networks, featuring decentralization, demanding minimum storage and computing capabilities. All the mechanisms have been evaluated in different conditions, proving their adaptability to the Cloud-to-Thing Continuum landscape.