Modello bayesiano per la riduzione dell'incertezza nella previsione delle piene del fiume Reno

Many efforts have been devoting since last years to reduce uncertainty in hydrological modeling predictions. The principal sources of uncertainty are provided by input errors, for inaccurate rainfall prediction, and model errors, given by the approximation with which the water flow processes in the soil and river discharges are described. The aim of the present work is to develop a bayesian model in order to reduce the uncertainty in the discharge predictions for the Reno river. The ’a priori’ distribution function is given by an autoregressive model, while the likelihood function is provided by a linear equation which relates observed values of discharge in the past and hydrological TOPKAPI model predictions obtained by the rainfall predictions of the limited-area model COSMO-LAMI. The ’a posteriori’ estimations are provided throw a H∞ filter, because the statistical properties of estimation errors are not known. In this work a stationary and a dual adaptive filter are implemented and compared. Statistical analysis of estimation errors and the description of three case studies of flood events occurred during the fall seasons from 2003 to 2005 are reported. Results have also revealed that errors can be described as a markovian process only at a first approximation. For the same period, an ensemble of ’a posteriori’ estimations is obtained throw the COSMO-LEPS rainfall predictions, but the spread of this ’a posteriori’ ensemble is not enable to encompass observation variability. This fact is related to the building of the meteorological ensemble, whose spread reaches its maximum after 5 days. In the future the use of a new ensemble, COSMO–SREPS, focused on the first 3 days, could be helpful to enlarge the meteorogical and, consequently, the hydrological variability.

Sviluppo e validazione di un modello di film fluido per simulazioni CFD di motori a combustione interna

A wall film model has been implemented in a customized version of KIVA code developed at University of Bologna. Under the hypothesis of `thin laminar ow' the model simulates the dynamics of a liquid wall film generated by impinging sprays. Particular care has been taken in numerical implementation of the model. The major phenomena taken into account in the present model are: wall film formation by impinging spray; body forces, such as gravity or acceleration of the wall; shear stress at the interface with the gas and no slip condition on the wall; momentum contribution and dynamic pressure generated by the tangential and normal component of the impinging drops; film evaporation by heat exchange with wall and surrounding gas. The model doesn't consider the effect of the wavy film motion and suppose that all the impinging droplets adhere to the film. The governing equations have been integrated in space by using a finite volume approach with a first order upwind differencing scheme and they have been integrated in time with a fully explicit method. The model is validated using two different test cases reproducing PFI gasoline and DI Diesel engine wall film conditions.

Sulla energia dissipata in alcuni organi di macchina

Questa tesi riguarda l'analisi delle trasmissioni ad ingranaggi e delle ruote dentate in generale, nell'ottica della minimizzazione delle perdite di energia. È stato messo a punto un modello per il calcolo della energia e del calore dissipati in un riduttore, sia ad assi paralleli sia epicicloidale. Tale modello consente di stimare la temperatura di equilibrio dell'olio al variare delle condizioni di funzionamento. Il calcolo termico è ancora poco diffuso nel progetto di riduttori, ma si è visto essere importante soprattutto per riduttori compatti, come i riduttori epicicloidali, per i quali la massima potenza trasmissibile è solitamente determinata proprio da considerazioni termiche. Il modello è stato implementato in un sistema di calcolo automatizzato, che può essere adattato a varie tipologie di riduttore. Tale sistema di calcolo consente, inoltre, di stimare l'energia dissipata in varie condizioni di lubrificazione ed è stato utilizzato per valutare le differenze tra lubrificazione tradizionale in bagno d'olio e lubrificazione a “carter secco” o a “carter umido”. Il modello è stato applicato al caso particolare di un riduttore ad ingranaggi a due stadi: il primo ad assi paralleli ed il secondo epicicloidale. Nell'ambito di un contratto di ricerca tra il DIEM e la Brevini S.p.A. di Reggio Emilia, sono state condotte prove sperimentali su un prototipo di tale riduttore, prove che hanno consentito di tarare il modello proposto [1]. Un ulteriore campo di indagine è stato lo studio dell’energia dissipata per ingranamento tra due ruote dentate utilizzando modelli che prevedano il calcolo di un coefficiente d'attrito variabile lungo il segmento di contatto. I modelli più comuni, al contrario, si basano su un coefficiente di attrito medio, mentre si può constatare che esso varia sensibilmente durante l’ingranamento. In particolare, non trovando in letteratura come varia il rendimento nel caso di ruote corrette, ci si è concentrati sul valore dell'energia dissipata negli ingranaggi al variare dello spostamento del profilo. Questo studio è riportato in [2]. È stata condotta una ricerca sul funzionamento di attuatori lineari vite-madrevite. Si sono studiati i meccanismi che determinano le condizioni di usura dell'accoppiamento vite-madrevite in attuatori lineari, con particolare riferimento agli aspetti termici del fenomeno. Si è visto, infatti, che la temperatura di contatto tra vite e chiocciola è il parametro più critico nel funzionamento di questi attuatori. Mediante una prova sperimentale, è stata trovata una legge che, data pressione, velocità e fattore di servizio, stima la temperatura di esercizio. Di tale legge sperimentale è stata data un'interpretazione sulla base dei modelli teorici noti. Questo studio è stato condotto nell'ambito di un contratto di ricerca tra il DIEM e la Ognibene Meccanica S.r.l. di Bologna ed è pubblicato in [3].

L'impiego del modello di Rash per la valutazione della soddisfazione del paziente nell'ambito delle strutture sanitarie di ricovero

Hospitals and health service providers are use to collect data about patient’s opinion to improve patient health status and communication with them and to upgrade the management and the organization of the health service provided. A lot of survey are carry out for this purpose and several questionnaire are built to measure patient satisfaction. In particular patient satisfaction is a way to describe and assess the level of hospital service from the patient’s point of view. It is a cognitive and an emotional response to the hospital experience. Methodologically patient satisfaction is defined as a multidimensional latent variable. To assess patient satisfaction Item Response Theory has greater advantages compared to Classical Test Theory. Rasch model is a one-parameter model which belongs to Item Response Theory. Rasch model yield objective measure of the construct that are independent of the set of people interviewed and of set of items used. Rasch estimates are continuous and can be useful to “calibrate” the scale of the latent trait. This research attempt to investigate the questionnaire currently adopted to measure patient satisfaction in an Italian hospital, completed by a large sample of 3390 patients. We verify the multidimensional nature of the variable, the properties of the instrument and the level of satisfaction in the hospital. Successively we used Rasch estimates to describe the most satisfied and the less satisfied patients.

Il cane come modello animale spontaneo di patologie neoplastiche dell'uomo: ene Ataxia-Telangiectasia Mutated (ATM) Nnella predisposizione al cancro ed importanza dei riarrangimanti genici dei geni Ig/TCR per la diagnosi e prognosi delle malattie linfoproliferative

“Naturally occurring cancers in pet dogs and humans share many features, including histological appearance, tumour genetics, molecular targets, biological behaviour and response to conventional therapies. Studying dogs with cancer is likely to provide a valuable perspective that is distinct from that generated by the study of human or rodent cancers alone. The value of this opportunity has been increasingly recognized in the field of cancer research for the identification of cancer-associated genes, the study of environmental risk factors, understanding tumour biology and progression, and, perhaps most importantly, the evaluation and development of novel cancer therapeutics”.(Paoloni and Khanna, 2008) In last years, the author has investigated some molecular features of cancer in dogs. The Thesis is articulated in two main sections. In section 1, the preliminary results of a research project aimed at investigating the role of somatic mutations of Ataxia-Telangiectasia mutated (ATM) gene in predisposing to cancer in boxer dogs, are presented. The canine boxer breed may be considered an unique opportunity to disclose the role of ATM somatic mutation since boxer dogs are known to be dramatically susceptible to cancer and since they may be considered a closed gene pool. Furthermore, dogs share with human the some environment. Overall, the abovementioned features could be considered extremely useful for our purposes. In the section 2, the results of our studies aimed at setting up accurate and sensitive molecular assays for diagnosing and assessing minimal residual disease in lymphoproliferative disorders of dogs, are presented. The results of those molecular assay may be directly translated in the field of Veterinary practice as well as the may be used to improve our objective evaluation of new investigational drugs effectiveness in canine cancer trials.

Chortheater. Genesi di un modello Tipologie corali nel Novecento

In the Nineties year in the German Studies’ area appears a new reflection around the theatrical chorus thank to the activity of theatrical personalities as Heiner Müller, Einar Schleef, Elfriede Jelinek or Christoph Marthaler. So Hans Thies Lehmann, in his compendium about the Postdramatic Theater (Hans-Thies Lehmann, Postdramatisches Theater, Verlag der Autoren, Frankfurt am Main 1999) advances the new category of the Chortheater (Chor Theatre) to explain e new form of drama and performative event; again in 1999 appear the important essay of Detlev Baur (Detlev Baur, Der Chor im Theater des 20. Jahrhunderts. Typologie des theatralen Mittels Chor, Niemeyer, Tübingen 1999), that gives an important device about this instrument but without giving the reasons of the its modifications in such different historical times. Then in 2004, Erika Fischer-Lichte, (Theatre, Sacrifice, Ritual. Exploring Forms of Political Theatre, Routledge, London-New York 2005), reflects about the connection between ritual and theatre in the 20th Century. Thank to this studies the search aim was to give a new story of the chorus as theatrical and performative tool, in his liminal essence in creating immersive or alienating theatrical relation with the audience and to give specific features to distinguish it from general categories such as choral theatre o ensemble theatre.

Sviluppo, implementazione e valutazione funzionale di un nuovo modello protesico di caviglia

Total ankle arthroplasty (TAA) is still not as satisfactory as total hip and total knee arthroplasty. For the TAA to be considered a valuable alternative to ankle arthrodesis, an effective range of ankle mobility must be recovered. The disappointing clinical results of the current generation of TAA are mostly related to poor understanding of the structures guiding ankle joint mobility. A new design (BOX Ankle) has been developed, uniquely able to restore physiologic ankle mobility and a natural relationship between the implanted components and the retained ligaments. For the first time the shapes of the tibial and talar components in the sagittal plane were designed to be compatible with the demonstrated ligament isometric rotation. This resulted in an unique motion at the replaced ankle where natural sliding as well as rolling motion occurs while at the same time full conformity is maintained between the three components throughout the flexion arc. According to prior research, the design features a spherical convex tibial component, a talar component with radius of curvature in the sagittal plane longer than that of the natural talus, and a fully conforming meniscal component. After computer-based modelling and preliminary observations in several trial implantation in specimens, 126 patients were implanted in the period July 2003 – December 2008. 75 patients with at least 6 months follow-up are here reported. Mean age was 62,6 years (range 22 – 80), mean follow-up 20,2 months. The AOFAS clinical score systems were used to assess patient outcome. Radiographs at maximal dorsiflexion and maximal plantar flexion confirmed the meniscalbearing component moves anteriorly during dorsiflexion and posteriorly during plantarflexion. Frontal and lateral radiographs in the patients, show good alignment of the components, and no signs of radiolucency or loosening. The mean AOFAS score was observed to go from 41 pre-op to 74,6 at 6 month follow-up, with further improvement at the following follow-up. These early results reveal satisfactory clinical scores, with good recovery of range of motion and reduction of pain. Radiographic assessment reveals good osteointegration. All these preliminary results confirm biomechanical studies and the validity of this novel ligamentcompatible prosthesis design. Surely it will be important to re-evaluate these patients later.

Nuovo modello animale per lo studio della working memory: validazione farmacologica e applicazioni

The present study was performed to validate a spatial working memory task using pharmacological manipulations. The water escape T-maze, which combines the advantages of the Morris water maze and the T-maze while minimizes the disadvantages, was used. Scopolamine, a drug that affects cognitive function in spatial working memory tasks, significantly decreased the rat performance in the present delayed alternation task. Since glutamate neurotransmission plays an important role in the maintaining of working memory, we evaluated the effect of ionotropic and metabotropic glutamatergic receptors antagonists, administered alone or in combination, on rat behaviour. As the acquisition and performance of memory tasks has been linked to the expression of the immediately early gene cFos, a marker of neuronal activation, we also investigated the neurochemical correlates of the water escape T-maze after pharmacological treatment with glutamatergic antagonists, in various brain areas. Moreover, we focused our attention on the involvement of perirhinal cortex glutamatergic neurotransmission in the acquisition and/or consolidation of this particular task. The perirhinal cortex has strong and reciprocal connections with both specific cortical sensory areas and some memory-related structures, including the hippocampal formation and amygdala. For its peculiar position, perirhinal cortex has been recently regarded as a key region in working memory processes, in particular in providing temporary maintenance of information. The effect of perirhinal cortex lesions with ibotenic acid on the acquisition and consolidation of the water escape T-maze task was evaluated. In conclusion, our data suggest that the water escape T-maze could be considered a valid, simple and quite fast method to assess spatial working memory, sensible to pharmacological manipulations. Following execution of the task, we observed cFos expression in several brain regions. Furthermore, in accordance to literature, our results suggest that glutamatergic neurotransmission plays an important role in the acquisition and consolidation of working memory processes.

Percezione della direzione del proprio movimento: dalla registrazione dell'attività corticale al modello computazionale.

The main aim of this thesis is strongly interdisciplinary: it involves and presumes a knowledge on Neurophysiology, to understand the mechanisms that undergo the studied phenomena, a knowledge and experience on Electronics, necessary during the hardware experimental set-up to acquire neuronal data, on Informatics and programming to write the code necessary to control the behaviours of the subjects during experiments and the visual presentation of stimuli. At last, neuronal and statistical models should be well known to help in interpreting data. The project started with an accurate bibliographic research: until now the mechanism of perception of heading (or direction of motion) are still poorly known. The main interest is to understand how the integration of visual information relative to our motion with eye position information happens. To investigate the cortical response to visual stimuli in motion and the integration with eye position, we decided to study an animal model, using Optic Flow expansion and contraction as visual stimuli. In the first chapter of the thesis, the basic aims of the research project are presented, together with the reasons why it’s interesting and important to study perception of motion. Moreover, this chapter describes the methods my research group thought to be more adequate to contribute to scientific community and underlines my personal contribute to the project. The second chapter presents an overview on useful knowledge to follow the main part of the thesis: it starts with a brief introduction on central nervous system, on cortical functions, then it presents more deeply associations areas, which are the main target of our study. Furthermore, it tries to explain why studies on animal models are necessary to understand mechanism at a cellular level, that could not be addressed on any other way. In the second part of the chapter, basics on electrophysiology and cellular communication are presented, together with traditional neuronal data analysis methods. The third chapter is intended to be a helpful resource for future works in the laboratory: it presents the hardware used for experimental sessions, how to control animal behaviour during the experiments by means of C routines and a software, and how to present visual stimuli on a screen. The forth chapter is the main core of the research project and the thesis. In the methods, experimental paradigms, visual stimuli and data analysis are presented. In the results, cellular response of area PEc to visual stimuli in motion combined with different eye positions are shown. In brief, this study led to the identification of different cellular behaviour in relation to focus of expansion (the direction of motion given by the optic flow pattern) and eye position. The originality and importance of the results are pointed out in the conclusions: this is the first study aimed to investigate perception of motion in this particular cortical area. In the last paragraph, a neuronal network model is presented: the aim is simulating cellular pre-saccadic and post-saccadic response of neuron in area PEc, during eye movement tasks. The same data presented in chapter four, are further analysed in chapter fifth. The analysis started from the observation of the neuronal responses during 1s time period in which the visual stimulation was the same. It was clear that cells activities showed oscillations in time, that had been neglected by the previous analysis based on mean firing frequency. Results distinguished two cellular behaviour by their response characteristics: some neurons showed oscillations that changed depending on eye and optic flow position, while others kept the same oscillations characteristics independent of the stimulus. The last chapter discusses the results of the research project, comments the originality and interdisciplinary of the study and proposes some future developments.

Provenienza dei sedimenti arenitici nel bacino di Tracia (eo-oligocene, Turchia nord-occidentale e Grecia nord-orientale)

The Thrace Basin is the largest and thickest Tertiary sedimentary basin of the eastern Balkans region and constitutes an important hydrocarbon province. It is located between the Rhodope-Strandja Massif to the north and west, the Marmara Sea and Biga Peninsula to the south, and the Black Sea to the est. It consists of a complex system of depocenters and uplifts with very articulate paleotopography indicated by abrupt lateral facies variations. Its southeastern margin is widely deformed by the Ganos Fault, a segment of the North Anatolian strike-slip fault system . Most of the Thrace Basin fill ranges from the Eocene to the Late Oligocene. Maximum total thickness, including the Neogene-Quaternary succession, reaches 9.000 meters in a few narrow depocenters. This sedimentary succession consists mainly of basin plain turbiditic deposits with a significant volcaniclastic component which evolves upwards to shelf deposits and continental facies, with deltaic bodies prograding towards the basin center in the Oligocene. This work deals with the provenance of Eocene-Oligocene clastic sediments of the southern and western part of Thrace Basin in Turkey and Greece. Sandstone compositional data (78 gross composition analyses and 40 heavy minerals analyses) were used to understand the change in detrital modes which reflects the provenance and geodinamic evolution of the basin. Samples were collected at six localities, which are from west to est: Gökçeada, Gallipoli and South-Ganos (south of Ganos Fault), Alexandroupolis, Korudağ and North-Ganos (north of Ganos Fault). Petrologic (framework composition and heavy-mineral analyses) and stratigraphic-sedimentologic data, (analysis of sedimentologic facies associations along representative stratigraphic sections, paleocurrents) allowed discrimination of six petrofacies; for each petrofacies the sediment dispersal system was delineated. The Thrace Basin fill is made mainly of lithic arkoses and arkosic litharenites with variable amount of low-grade metamorphic lithics (also ophiolitic), neovolcanic lithics, and carbonate grains (mainly extrabasinal). Picotite is the most widespread heavy mineral in all petrofacies. Petrological data on analyzed successions show a complex sediment dispersal pattern and evolution of the basin, indicating one principal detrital input from a source area located to the south, along both the İzmir-Ankara and Intra-Pontide suture lines, and a possible secondary source area, represented by the Rhodope Massif to the west. A significant portion of the Thrace Basin sediments in the study area were derived from ophiolitic source rocks and from their oceanic cover, whereas epimetamorphic detrital components came from a low-grade crystalline basement. An important penecontemporaneous volcanic component is widespread in late Eocene-Oligocene times, indicating widespread post-collisional (collapse?) volcanism following the closure of the Vardar ocean. Large-scale sediment mass wasting from south to north along the southern margin of the Thrace Basin is indicated (i) in late Eocene time by large olistoliths of ophiolites and penecontemporaneous carbonates, and (ii) in the mid-Oligocene by large volcaniclastic olistoliths. The late Oligocene paleogeographic scenario was characterized by large deltaic bodies prograding northward (Osmancik Formation). This clearly indicates that the southern margin of the basin acted as a major sediment source area throughout its Eocene-Oligocene history. Another major sediment source area is represented by the Rhodope Massif, in particolar the Circum-Rhodopic belt, especially for plutonic and metamorphic rocks. Considering preexisting data on the petrologic composition of Thrace Basin, silicilastic sediments in Greece and Bulgaria (Caracciolo, 2009), a Rhodopian provenance could be considered mostly for areas of the Thrace Basin outside our study area, particularly in the northern-central portions of the basin. In summary, the most important source area for the sediment of Thrace Basin in the study area was represented by the exhumed subduction-accretion complex along the southern margin of the basin (Biga Peninsula and western-central Marmara Sea region). Most measured paleocurrent indicators show an eastward paleoflow but this is most likely the result of gravity flow deflection. This is possible considered a strong control due to the east-west-trending synsedimentary transcurrent faults which cuts the Thrace Basin, generating a series of depocenters and uplifts which deeply influenced sediment dispersal and the areal distribution of paleoenvironments. The Thrace Basin was long interpreted as a forearc basin between a magmatic arc to the north and a subduction-accretion complex to the south, developed in a context of northward subduction. This interpretation was challenged by more recent data emphasizing the lack of a coeval magmatic arc in the north and the interpretation of the chaotic deposit which outcrop south of Ganos Fault as olistoliths and large submarine slumps, derived from the erosion and sedimentary reworking of an older mélange unit located to the south (not as tectonic mélange formed in an accretionary prism). The present study corroborates instead the hypothesis of a post-collisional origin of the Thrace Basin, due to a phase of orogenic collapse, which generated a series of mid-Eocene depocenters all along the İzmir-Ankara suture (following closure of the Vardar-İzmir-Ankara ocean and the ensuing collision); then the slab roll-back of the remnant Pindos ocean played an important role in enhancing subsidence and creating additional accommodation space for sediment deposition.