Predictability in Social Science, The statistical mechanics approach.

The subject of this work concerns the study of the immigration phenomenon, with emphasis on the aspects related to the integration of an immigrant population in a hosting one. Aim of this work is to show the forecasting ability of a recent finding where the behavior of integration quantifiers was analyzed and investigated with a mathematical model of statistical physics origins (a generalization of the monomer dimer model). After providing a detailed literature review of the model, we show that not only such a model is able to identify the social mechanism that drives a particular integration process, but it also provides correct forecast. The research reported here proves that the proposed model of integration and its forecast framework are simple and effective tools to reduce uncertainties about how integration phenomena emerge and how they are likely to develop in response to increased migration levels in the future.

New perspectives in statistical mechanics and high-dimensional inference

The main purpose of this thesis is to go beyond two usual assumptions that accompany theoretical analysis in spin-glasses and inference: the i.i.d. (independently and identically distributed) hypothesis on the noise elements and the finite rank regime. The first one appears since the early birth of spin-glasses. The second one instead concerns the inference viewpoint. Disordered systems and Bayesian inference have a well-established relation, evidenced by their continuous cross-fertilization. The thesis makes use of techniques coming both from the rigorous mathematical machinery of spin-glasses, such as the interpolation scheme, and from Statistical Physics, such as the replica method. The first chapter contains an introduction to the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick and spiked Wigner models. The first is a mean field spin-glass where the couplings are i.i.d. Gaussian random variables. The second instead amounts to establish the information theoretical limits in the reconstruction of a fixed low rank matrix, the “spike”, blurred by additive Gaussian noise. In chapters 2 and 3 the i.i.d. hypothesis on the noise is broken by assuming a noise with inhomogeneous variance profile. In spin-glasses this leads to multi-species models. The inferential counterpart is called spatial coupling. All the previous models are usually studied in the Bayes-optimal setting, where everything is known about the generating process of the data. In chapter 4 instead we study the spiked Wigner model where the prior on the signal to reconstruct is ignored. In chapter 5 we analyze the statistical limits of a spiked Wigner model where the noise is no longer Gaussian, but drawn from a random matrix ensemble, which makes its elements dependent. The thesis ends with chapter 6, where the challenging problem of high-rank probabilistic matrix factorization is tackled. Here we introduce a new procedure called "decimation" and we show that it is theoretically to perform matrix factorization through it.

Statistical mechanics formalism and methods for the analysis of real networks

This thesis provides a thoroughly theoretical background in network theory and shows novel applications to real problems and data. In the first chapter a general introduction to network ensembles is given, and the relations with “standard” equilibrium statistical mechanics are described. Moreover, an entropy measure is considered to analyze statistical properties of the integrated PPI-signalling-mRNA expression networks in different cases. In the second chapter multilayer networks are introduced to evaluate and quantify the correlations between real interdependent networks. Multiplex networks describing citation-collaboration interactions and patterns in colorectal cancer are presented. The last chapter is completely dedicated to control theory and its relation with network theory. We characterise how the structural controllability of a network is affected by the fraction of low in-degree and low out-degree nodes. Finally, we present a novel approach to the controllability of multiplex networks

Biomass Gasification - Process analysis and dimensioning aspects for downdraft units and gas cleaning lines

In such territories where food production is mostly scattered in several small / medium size or even domestic farms, a lot of heterogeneous residues are produced yearly, since farmers usually carry out different activities in their properties. The amount and composition of farm residues, therefore, widely change during year, according to the single production process periodically achieved. Coupling high efficiency micro-cogeneration energy units with easy handling biomass conversion equipments, suitable to treat different materials, would provide many important advantages to the farmers and to the community as well, so that the increase in feedstock flexibility of gasification units is nowadays seen as a further paramount step towards their wide spreading in rural areas and as a real necessity for their utilization at small scale. Two main research topics were thought to be of main concern at this purpose, and they were therefore discussed in this work: the investigation of fuels properties impact on gasification process development and the technical feasibility of small scale gasification units integration with cogeneration systems. According to these two main aspects, the present work was thus divided in two main parts. The first one is focused on the biomass gasification process, that was investigated in its theoretical aspects and then analytically modelled in order to simulate thermo-chemical conversion of different biomass fuels, such as wood (park waste wood and softwood), wheat straw, sewage sludge and refuse derived fuels. The main idea is to correlate the results of reactor design procedures with the physical properties of biomasses and the corresponding working conditions of gasifiers (temperature profile, above all), in order to point out the main differences which prevent the use of the same conversion unit for different materials. At this scope, a gasification kinetic free model was initially developed in Excel sheets, considering different values of air to biomass ratio and the downdraft gasification technology as particular examined application. The differences in syngas production and working conditions (process temperatures, above all) among the considered fuels were tried to be connected to some biomass properties, such elementary composition, ash and water contents. The novelty of this analytical approach was the use of kinetic constants ratio in order to determine oxygen distribution among the different oxidation reactions (regarding volatile matter only) while equilibrium of water gas shift reaction was considered in gasification zone, by which the energy and mass balances involved in the process algorithm were linked together, as well. Moreover, the main advantage of this analytical tool is the easiness by which the input data corresponding to the particular biomass materials can be inserted into the model, so that a rapid evaluation on their own thermo-chemical conversion properties is possible to be obtained, mainly based on their chemical composition A good conformity of the model results with the other literature and experimental data was detected for almost all the considered materials (except for refuse derived fuels, because of their unfitting chemical composition with the model assumptions). Successively, a dimensioning procedure for open core downdraft gasifiers was set up, by the analysis on the fundamental thermo-physical and thermo-chemical mechanisms which are supposed to regulate the main solid conversion steps involved in the gasification process. Gasification units were schematically subdivided in four reaction zones, respectively corresponding to biomass heating, solids drying, pyrolysis and char gasification processes, and the time required for the full development of each of these steps was correlated to the kinetics rates (for pyrolysis and char gasification processes only) and to the heat and mass transfer phenomena from gas to solid phase. On the basis of this analysis and according to the kinetic free model results and biomass physical properties (particles size, above all) it was achieved that for all the considered materials char gasification step is kinetically limited and therefore temperature is the main working parameter controlling this step. Solids drying is mainly regulated by heat transfer from bulk gas to the inner layers of particles and the corresponding time especially depends on particle size. Biomass heating is almost totally achieved by the radiative heat transfer from the hot walls of reactor to the bed of material. For pyrolysis, instead, working temperature, particles size and the same nature of biomass (through its own pyrolysis heat) have all comparable weights on the process development, so that the corresponding time can be differently depending on one of these factors according to the particular fuel is gasified and the particular conditions are established inside the gasifier. The same analysis also led to the estimation of reaction zone volumes for each biomass fuel, so as a comparison among the dimensions of the differently fed gasification units was finally accomplished. Each biomass material showed a different volumes distribution, so that any dimensioned gasification unit does not seem to be suitable for more than one biomass species. Nevertheless, since reactors diameters were found out quite similar for all the examined materials, it could be envisaged to design a single units for all of them by adopting the largest diameter and by combining together the maximum heights of each reaction zone, as they were calculated for the different biomasses. A total height of gasifier as around 2400mm would be obtained in this case. Besides, by arranging air injecting nozzles at different levels along the reactor, gasification zone could be properly set up according to the particular material is in turn gasified. Finally, since gasification and pyrolysis times were found to considerably change according to even short temperature variations, it could be also envisaged to regulate air feeding rate for each gasified material (which process temperatures depend on), so as the available reactor volumes would be suitable for the complete development of solid conversion in each case, without even changing fluid dynamics behaviour of the unit as well as air/biomass ratio in noticeable measure. The second part of this work dealt with the gas cleaning systems to be adopted downstream the gasifiers in order to run high efficiency CHP units (i.e. internal engines and micro-turbines). Especially in the case multi–fuel gasifiers are assumed to be used, weightier gas cleaning lines need to be envisaged in order to reach the standard gas quality degree required to fuel cogeneration units. Indeed, as the more heterogeneous feed to the gasification unit, several contaminant species can simultaneously be present in the exit gas stream and, as a consequence, suitable gas cleaning systems have to be designed. In this work, an overall study on gas cleaning lines assessment is carried out. Differently from the other research efforts carried out in the same field, the main scope is to define general arrangements for gas cleaning lines suitable to remove several contaminants from the gas stream, independently on the feedstock material and the energy plant size The gas contaminant species taken into account in this analysis were: particulate, tars, sulphur (in H2S form), alkali metals, nitrogen (in NH3 form) and acid gases (in HCl form). For each of these species, alternative cleaning devices were designed according to three different plant sizes, respectively corresponding with 8Nm3/h, 125Nm3/h and 350Nm3/h gas flows. Their performances were examined on the basis of their optimal working conditions (efficiency, temperature and pressure drops, above all) and their own consumption of energy and materials. Successively, the designed units were combined together in different overall gas cleaning line arrangements, paths, by following some technical constraints which were mainly determined from the same performance analysis on the cleaning units and from the presumable synergic effects by contaminants on the right working of some of them (filters clogging, catalysts deactivation, etc.). One of the main issues to be stated in paths design accomplishment was the tars removal from the gas stream, preventing filters plugging and/or line pipes clogging At this scope, a catalytic tars cracking unit was envisaged as the only solution to be adopted, and, therefore, a catalytic material which is able to work at relatively low temperatures was chosen. Nevertheless, a rapid drop in tars cracking efficiency was also estimated for this same material, so that an high frequency of catalysts regeneration and a consequent relevant air consumption for this operation were calculated in all of the cases. Other difficulties had to be overcome in the abatement of alkali metals, which condense at temperatures lower than tars, but they also need to be removed in the first sections of gas cleaning line in order to avoid corrosion of materials. In this case a dry scrubber technology was envisaged, by using the same fine particles filter units and by choosing for them corrosion resistant materials, like ceramic ones. Besides these two solutions which seem to be unavoidable in gas cleaning line design, high temperature gas cleaning lines were not possible to be achieved for the two larger plant sizes, as well. Indeed, as the use of temperature control devices was precluded in the adopted design procedure, ammonia partial oxidation units (as the only considered methods for the abatement of ammonia at high temperature) were not suitable for the large scale units, because of the high increase of reactors temperature by the exothermic reactions involved in the process. In spite of these limitations, yet, overall arrangements for each considered plant size were finally designed, so that the possibility to clean the gas up to the required standard degree was technically demonstrated, even in the case several contaminants are simultaneously present in the gas stream. Moreover, all the possible paths defined for the different plant sizes were compared each others on the basis of some defined operational parameters, among which total pressure drops, total energy losses, number of units and secondary materials consumption. On the basis of this analysis, dry gas cleaning methods proved preferable to the ones including water scrubber technology in al of the cases, especially because of the high water consumption provided by water scrubber units in ammonia adsorption process. This result is yet connected to the possibility to use activated carbon units for ammonia removal and Nahcolite adsorber for chloride acid. The very high efficiency of this latter material is also remarkable. Finally, as an estimation of the overall energy loss pertaining the gas cleaning process, the total enthalpy losses estimated for the three plant sizes were compared with the respective gas streams energy contents, these latter obtained on the basis of low heating value of gas only. This overall study on gas cleaning systems is thus proposed as an analytical tool by which different gas cleaning line configurations can be evaluated, according to the particular practical application they are adopted for and the size of cogeneration unit they are connected to.

Technical innovations for the diagnosis and the rehabilitation of motor and perceptive impairments of the child with Cerebral Palsy

The treatment of the Cerebral Palsy (CP) is considered as the “core problem” for the whole field of the pediatric rehabilitation. The reason why this pathology has such a primary role, can be ascribed to two main aspects. First of all CP is the form of disability most frequent in childhood (one new case per 500 birth alive, (1)), secondarily the functional recovery of the “spastic” child is, historically, the clinical field in which the majority of the therapeutic methods and techniques (physiotherapy, orthotic, pharmacologic, orthopedic-surgical, neurosurgical) were first applied and tested. The currently accepted definition of CP – Group of disorders of the development of movement and posture causing activity limitation (2) – is the result of a recent update by the World Health Organization to the language of the International Classification of Functioning Disability and Health, from the original proposal of Ingram – A persistent but not unchangeable disorder of posture and movement – dated 1955 (3). This definition considers CP as a permanent ailment, i.e. a “fixed” condition, that however can be modified both functionally and structurally by means of child spontaneous evolution and treatments carried out during childhood. The lesion that causes the palsy, happens in a structurally immature brain in the pre-, peri- or post-birth period (but only during the firsts months of life). The most frequent causes of CP are: prematurity, insufficient cerebral perfusion, arterial haemorrhage, venous infarction, hypoxia caused by various origin (for example from the ingestion of amniotic liquid), malnutrition, infection and maternal or fetal poisoning. In addition to these causes, traumas and malformations have to be included. The lesion, whether focused or spread over the nervous system, impairs the whole functioning of the Central Nervous System (CNS). As a consequence, they affect the construction of the adaptive functions (4), first of all posture control, locomotion and manipulation. The palsy itself does not vary over time, however it assumes an unavoidable “evolutionary” feature when during growth the child is requested to meet new and different needs through the construction of new and different functions. It is essential to consider that clinically CP is not only a direct expression of structural impairment, that is of etiology, pathogenesis and lesion timing, but it is mainly the manifestation of the path followed by the CNS to “re”-construct the adaptive functions “despite” the presence of the damage. “Palsy” is “the form of the function that is implemented by an individual whose CNS has been damaged in order to satisfy the demands coming from the environment” (4). Therefore it is only possible to establish general relations between lesion site, nature and size, and palsy and recovery processes. It is quite common to observe that children with very similar neuroimaging can have very different clinical manifestations of CP and, on the other hand, children with very similar motor behaviors can have completely different lesion histories. A very clear example of this is represented by hemiplegic forms, which show bilateral hemispheric lesions in a high percentage of cases. The first section of this thesis is aimed at guiding the interpretation of CP. First of all the issue of the detection of the palsy is treated from historical viewpoint. Consequently, an extended analysis of the current definition of CP, as internationally accepted, is provided. The definition is then outlined in terms of a space dimension and then of a time dimension, hence it is highlighted where this definition is unacceptably lacking. The last part of the first section further stresses the importance of shifting from the traditional concept of CP as a palsy of development (defect analysis) towards the notion of development of palsy, i.e., as the product of the relationship that the individual however tries to dynamically build with the surrounding environment (resource semeiotics) starting and growing from a different availability of resources, needs, dreams, rights and duties (4). In the scientific and clinic community no common classification system of CP has so far been universally accepted. Besides, no standard operative method or technique have been acknowledged to effectively assess the different disabilities and impairments exhibited by children with CP. CP is still “an artificial concept, comprising several causes and clinical syndromes that have been grouped together for a convenience of management” (5). The lack of standard and common protocols able to effectively diagnose the palsy, and as a consequence to establish specific treatments and prognosis, is mainly because of the difficulty to elevate this field to a level based on scientific evidence. A solution aimed at overcoming the current incomplete treatment of CP children is represented by the clinical systematic adoption of objective tools able to measure motor defects and movement impairments. A widespread application of reliable instruments and techniques able to objectively evaluate both the form of the palsy (diagnosis) and the efficacy of the treatments provided (prognosis), constitutes a valuable method able to validate care protocols, establish the efficacy of classification systems and assess the validity of definitions. Since the ‘80s, instruments specifically oriented to the analysis of the human movement have been advantageously designed and applied in the context of CP with the aim of measuring motor deficits and, especially, gait deviations. The gait analysis (GA) technique has been increasingly used over the years to assess, analyze, classify, and support the process of clinical decisions making, allowing for a complete investigation of gait with an increased temporal and spatial resolution. GA has provided a basis for improving the outcome of surgical and nonsurgical treatments and for introducing a new modus operandi in the identification of defects and functional adaptations to the musculoskeletal disorders. Historically, the first laboratories set up for gait analysis developed their own protocol (set of procedures for data collection and for data reduction) independently, according to performances of the technologies available at that time. In particular, the stereophotogrammetric systems mainly based on optoelectronic technology, soon became a gold-standard for motion analysis. They have been successfully applied especially for scientific purposes. Nowadays the optoelectronic systems have significantly improved their performances in term of spatial and temporal resolution, however many laboratories continue to use the protocols designed on the technology available in the ‘70s and now out-of-date. Furthermore, these protocols are not coherent both for the biomechanical models and for the adopted collection procedures. In spite of these differences, GA data are shared, exchanged and interpreted irrespectively to the adopted protocol without a full awareness to what extent these protocols are compatible and comparable with each other. Following the extraordinary advances in computer science and electronics, new systems for GA no longer based on optoelectronic technology, are now becoming available. They are the Inertial and Magnetic Measurement Systems (IMMSs), based on miniature MEMS (Microelectromechanical systems) inertial sensor technology. These systems are cost effective, wearable and fully portable motion analysis systems, these features gives IMMSs the potential to be used both outside specialized laboratories and to consecutive collect series of tens of gait cycles. The recognition and selection of the most representative gait cycle is then easier and more reliable especially in CP children, considering their relevant gait cycle variability. The second section of this thesis is focused on GA. In particular, it is firstly aimed at examining the differences among five most representative GA protocols in order to assess the state of the art with respect to the inter-protocol variability. The design of a new protocol is then proposed and presented with the aim of achieving gait analysis on CP children by means of IMMS. The protocol, named ‘Outwalk’, contains original and innovative solutions oriented at obtaining joint kinematic with calibration procedures extremely comfortable for the patients. The results of a first in-vivo validation of Outwalk on healthy subjects are then provided. In particular, this study was carried out by comparing Outwalk used in combination with an IMMS with respect to a reference protocol and an optoelectronic system. In order to set a more accurate and precise comparison of the systems and the protocols, ad hoc methods were designed and an original formulation of the statistical parameter coefficient of multiple correlation was developed and effectively applied. On the basis of the experimental design proposed for the validation on healthy subjects, a first assessment of Outwalk, together with an IMMS, was also carried out on CP children. The third section of this thesis is dedicated to the treatment of walking in CP children. Commonly prescribed treatments in addressing gait abnormalities in CP children include physical therapy, surgery (orthopedic and rhizotomy), and orthoses. The orthotic approach is conservative, being reversible, and widespread in many therapeutic regimes. Orthoses are used to improve the gait of children with CP, by preventing deformities, controlling joint position, and offering an effective lever for the ankle joint. Orthoses are prescribed for the additional aims of increasing walking speed, improving stability, preventing stumbling, and decreasing muscular fatigue. The ankle-foot orthosis (AFO), with a rigid ankle, are primarily designed to prevent equinus and other foot deformities with a positive effect also on more proximal joints. However, AFOs prevent the natural excursion of the tibio-tarsic joint during the second rocker, hence hampering the natural leaning progression of the whole body under the effect of the inertia (6). A new modular (submalleolar) astragalus-calcanear orthosis, named OMAC, has recently been proposed with the intention of substituting the prescription of AFOs in those CP children exhibiting a flat and valgus-pronated foot. The aim of this section is thus to present the mechanical and technical features of the OMAC by means of an accurate description of the device. In particular, the integral document of the deposited Italian patent, is provided. A preliminary validation of OMAC with respect to AFO is also reported as resulted from an experimental campaign on diplegic CP children, during a three month period, aimed at quantitatively assessing the benefit provided by the two orthoses on walking and at qualitatively evaluating the changes in the quality of life and motor abilities. As already stated, CP is universally considered as a persistent but not unchangeable disorder of posture and movement. Conversely to this definition, some clinicians (4) have recently pointed out that movement disorders may be primarily caused by the presence of perceptive disorders, where perception is not merely the acquisition of sensory information, but an active process aimed at guiding the execution of movements through the integration of sensory information properly representing the state of one’s body and of the environment. Children with perceptive impairments show an overall fear of moving and the onset of strongly unnatural walking schemes directly caused by the presence of perceptive system disorders. The fourth section of the thesis thus deals with accurately defining the perceptive impairment exhibited by diplegic CP children. A detailed description of the clinical signs revealing the presence of the perceptive impairment, and a classification scheme of the clinical aspects of perceptual disorders is provided. In the end, a functional reaching test is proposed as an instrumental test able to disclosure the perceptive impairment. References 1. Prevalence and characteristics of children with cerebral palsy in Europe. Dev Med Child Neurol. 2002 Set;44(9):633-640. 2. Bax M, Goldstein M, Rosenbaum P, Leviton A, Paneth N, Dan B, et al. Proposed definition and classification of cerebral palsy, April 2005. Dev Med Child Neurol. 2005 Ago;47(8):571-576. 3. Ingram TT. A study of cerebral palsy in the childhood population of Edinburgh. Arch. Dis. Child. 1955 Apr;30(150):85-98. 4. Ferrari A, Cioni G. The spastic forms of cerebral palsy : a guide to the assessment of adaptive functions. Milan: Springer; 2009. 5. Olney SJ, Wright MJ. Cerebral Palsy. Campbell S et al. Physical Therapy for Children. 2nd Ed. Philadelphia: Saunders. 2000;:533-570. 6. Desloovere K, Molenaers G, Van Gestel L, Huenaerts C, Van Campenhout A, Callewaert B, et al. How can push-off be preserved during use of an ankle foot orthosis in children with hemiplegia? A prospective controlled study. Gait Posture. 2006 Ott;24(2):142-151.

Physical activity and osseointegration: "step forward" to improve the quality of life of a trans-femoral amputee person

Lower limb amputation is an event that inevitably changes the lifestyle of the person with a significant impact on quality of life. The socket-type prosthesis entails that the residual limb is in direct contact with the socket which often implies numerous disadvantages. Osseointegrated prosthesis is a solution that avoids skin problems because not include the presence of the socket. In this type of prosthesis, a stem is surgically inserted inside the medullary canal and connected with the external prosthetic limb. Therefore, this thesis aims to highlight and explore the main strengths and problems of osseointegrated prostheses and to examine the role of physical activity, with attention to functional capacity and bone quality. The objectives of the thesis will be developed through 5 studies: (I) A gait analysis of a 44 years-old male patient who underwent surgery for the implantation of an osseointegrated prosthesis; (II) A systematic review to investigate the state of stump bone quality in patients with limb amputations; (III) A systematic review of the technologies involved in such devices has been carried out to identify the most fruitful ones in improving bone quality; (IV) A systematic review investigating the topic of physical activity and bone turnover biomarkers; (V) A systematic review to investigate the effects of physical activity interventions combined with drug treatments on bone biomarkers in people with osteopenia and osteoporosis. The integrated prosthesis is a good solution for people with lower limb amputation who cannot use their traditional socket-type prosthesis. Although many objectives have already been achieved, there are still many aspects that we can improve. These include the creation of a multidisciplinary path that support patients along their path, with particular attention to the pre-surgery and the post-rehabilitation phase that is still lacking even if of fundamental impact in determining the quality of life.

The spatial association of numbers and mathematical symbols

The "SNARC effect" refers to the finding that people respond faster to small numbers with the left hand and to large numbers with the right hand. This effect is often explained by hypothesizing that numbers are represented from left to right in ascending order (Mental Number Line). However, the SNARC effect may not depend on quantitative information, but on other factors such as the order in which numbers are often represented from left to right in our culture. Four experiments were performed to test this hypothesis. In the first experiment, the concept of spatial association was extended to nonnumeric mathematical symbols: the minus and plus symbols. These symbols were presented as fixation points in a spatial compatibility paradigm. The results demonstrated an opposite influence of the two symbols on the target stimulus: the minus symbol tends to favor the target presented on the left, while the plus symbol the target presented on the right, demonstrating that spatial association can emerge in the absence of a numerical context. In the last three experiments, the relationship between quantity and order was evaluated using normal numbers and mirror numbers. Although mirror numbers denote quantity, they are not encountered in a left-to-right spatial organization. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants performed a magnitude classification task with mirror and normal numbers presented together (Experiment 1) or separately (Experiment 2). In Experiment 3, participants performed a new task in which quantity information processing was not required: the mirror judgment task. The results show that participants access the quantity of both normal and mirror numbers, but only the normal numbers are spatially organized from left to right. In addition, the physical similarity between the numbers, used as a predictor variable in the last three experiments, showed that the physical characteristics of numbers influenced participants' reaction times.