Forecasting the need for medical specialists in Spain: application of a system dynamics model

[EN] Background: Spain has gone from a surplus to a shortage of medical doctors in very few years. Medium and long-term planning for health professionals has become a high priority for health authorities. Methods: We created a supply and demand/need simulation model for 43 medical specialties using system dynamics. The model includes demographic, education and labour market variables. Several scenarios were defined. Variables controllable by health planners can be set as parameters to simulate different scenarios. The model calculates the supply and the deficit or surplus. Experts set the ratio of specialists needed per 1000 inhabitants with a Delphi method. Results: In the scenario of the baseline model with moderate population growth, the deficit of medical specialists will grow from 2% at present (2800 specialists) to 14.3% in 2025 (almost 21 000). The specialties with the greatest medium-term shortages are Anesthesiology, Orthopedic and Traumatic Surgery, Pediatric Surgery, Plastic Aesthetic and Reparatory Surgery, Family and Community Medicine, Pediatrics, Radiology, and Urology. Conclusions: The model suggests the need to increase the number of students admitted to medical school. Training itineraries should be redesigned to facilitate mobility among specialties. In the meantime, the need to make more flexible the supply in the short term is being filled by the immigration of physicians from new members of the European Union and from Latin America.

Effect of rearing system intensiveness on biological features, culture performance and larval quality of meagre (Argyrosomus regius Asso, 1801) larvae

[EN]Meagre, Argyrosomus regius A., is a new species for aquaculture in south Atlantic and Mediterranean regions, that can reach a mean fresh weight of 8.02±2.51g. at 95dah. However, hatchery techniques must be improved to optimize culture performance and larval quality. Eggs of meagre were cultured under intensive (75 indv.l-1 in 2m3 tanks) and semi-intensive system (7.5 indv.l-1 in 40m3 tanks) to evaluate the effect of the intensification on biological features, stress resistance and skeletal deformities. At 30dah, despite in semi-intensive system reared larvae a higher total length (19.08± 2.3mm vs 16.00±1.54mm), dry body weight (13.09± 2.43mg vs 6.46±0.52mg), and survival after the activity test (75.0± 13.8% vs 53.3±11.5%) was found, the use of intensive systems were also very suitable and cost-effective for larval rearing of this species

Towards the construction of a validated numerical system to study the mesoscale dynamics of the North East Atlantic (2003-2006)

Máster en Oceanografía