Forecasting the need for medical specialists in Spain: application of a system dynamics model

[EN] Background: Spain has gone from a surplus to a shortage of medical doctors in very few years. Medium and long-term planning for health professionals has become a high priority for health authorities. Methods: We created a supply and demand/need simulation model for 43 medical specialties using system dynamics. The model includes demographic, education and labour market variables. Several scenarios were defined. Variables controllable by health planners can be set as parameters to simulate different scenarios. The model calculates the supply and the deficit or surplus. Experts set the ratio of specialists needed per 1000 inhabitants with a Delphi method. Results: In the scenario of the baseline model with moderate population growth, the deficit of medical specialists will grow from 2% at present (2800 specialists) to 14.3% in 2025 (almost 21 000). The specialties with the greatest medium-term shortages are Anesthesiology, Orthopedic and Traumatic Surgery, Pediatric Surgery, Plastic Aesthetic and Reparatory Surgery, Family and Community Medicine, Pediatrics, Radiology, and Urology. Conclusions: The model suggests the need to increase the number of students admitted to medical school. Training itineraries should be redesigned to facilitate mobility among specialties. In the meantime, the need to make more flexible the supply in the short term is being filled by the immigration of physicians from new members of the European Union and from Latin America.

Planteamiento experimental de la experiencia del modelado con barro en la Facultad de Formación del Profesorado durante el curso 2012-2013

[ES] Con motivo de la práctica docente universitaria en la Facultad de Formación del Profesorado con alumnos del grado de Primaria, en el ámbito de las artes plásticas, tuvimos la idea y la oportunidad de reforzar y ampliar los recursos didácticos planteados a priori en la investigación, experimentándolos con un sector más amplio que el de los alumnos de especialidades específicamente artísticas, a quienes iba dirigido en un principio la creación de recursos didácticos relacionados con la tesis titulada: “Escultura pública en Gran Canaria entre 1980-2010: recursos didácticos para la enseñanza de algunos procedimientos usados en ellas.” [EN] In the context of teaching activities to Primary Education students at the Teacher Training College in the field of plastic arts and in reference to the thesis called 1980-2012 Public Sculpture in Gran Canaria, Didactic Resources for the Teaching of some of the Procedures Applied in their Making geared towards students whose specialties were specifically artistic, we had the op ortunity to reinforce and increase the methodological resources considered within the research but with students different to those of the speciality of plastics arts.