Forecasting the need for medical specialists in Spain: application of a system dynamics model

[EN] Background: Spain has gone from a surplus to a shortage of medical doctors in very few years. Medium and long-term planning for health professionals has become a high priority for health authorities. Methods: We created a supply and demand/need simulation model for 43 medical specialties using system dynamics. The model includes demographic, education and labour market variables. Several scenarios were defined. Variables controllable by health planners can be set as parameters to simulate different scenarios. The model calculates the supply and the deficit or surplus. Experts set the ratio of specialists needed per 1000 inhabitants with a Delphi method. Results: In the scenario of the baseline model with moderate population growth, the deficit of medical specialists will grow from 2% at present (2800 specialists) to 14.3% in 2025 (almost 21 000). The specialties with the greatest medium-term shortages are Anesthesiology, Orthopedic and Traumatic Surgery, Pediatric Surgery, Plastic Aesthetic and Reparatory Surgery, Family and Community Medicine, Pediatrics, Radiology, and Urology. Conclusions: The model suggests the need to increase the number of students admitted to medical school. Training itineraries should be redesigned to facilitate mobility among specialties. In the meantime, the need to make more flexible the supply in the short term is being filled by the immigration of physicians from new members of the European Union and from Latin America.

The structure of planktonic communities under variable coastal upwelling conditions off Cape Ghir (31ºN), in the Canary Current System (NW Africa)

Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria. Facultad de Ciencias del Mar. Programa de doctorado en Oceanografía. Diploma de Estudios Avanzados

Intrinsic ordering, combinatorial numbers and reliability engineering

[EN]A new algorithm for evaluating the top event probability of large fault trees (FTs) is presented. This algorithm does not require any previous qualitative analysis of the FT. Indeed, its efficiency is independent of the FT logic, and it only depends on the number n of basic system components and on their failure probabilities. Our method provides exact lower and upper bounds on the top event probability by using new properties of the intrinsic order relation between binary strings. The intrinsic order enables one to select binary n-tuples with large occurrence probabilities without necessity to evaluate them. This drastically reduces the complexity of the problem from exponential (2n binary n-tuples) to linear (n Boolean variables)...

Labeling the nodes in the intrinsic order graph with their weights

[EN] This paper deals with the study of some new properties of the intrinsic order graph. The intrinsic order graph is the natural graphical representation of a complex stochastic Boolean system (CSBS). A CSBS is a system depending on an arbitrarily large number n of mutually independent random Boolean variables. The intrinsic order graph displays its 2n vertices (associated to the CSBS) from top to bottom, in decreasing order of their occurrence probabilities. New relations between the intrinsic ordering and the Hamming weight (i.e., the number of 1-bits in a binary n-tuple) are derived. Further, the distribution of the weights of the 2n nodes in the intrinsic order graph is analyzed…

Complex sochastic boolean systems : new properties of the intrinsic order graph

[EN]A complex stochastic Boolean system (CSBS) is a system depending on an arbitrary number n of stochastic Boolean variables. The analysis of CSBSs is mainly based on the intrinsic order: a partial order relation defined on the set f0; 1gn of binary n-tuples. The usual graphical representation for a CSBS is the intrinsic order graph: the Hasse diagram of the intrinsic order. In this paper, some new properties of the intrinsic order graph are studied. Particularly, the set and the number of its edges, the degree and neighbors of each vertex, as well as typical properties, such as the symmetry and fractal structure of this graph, are analyzed…

Gender and identity classification for a naive and evolving system

[EN]This paper does not propose a new technique for face representationorclassification. Insteadtheworkdescribed here investigates the evolution of an automatic system which, based on a currently common framework, and starting from an empty memory, modifies its classifiers according to experience. In the experiments we reproduce up to a certain extent the process of successive meetings. The results achieved, even when the number of different individuals is still reduced compared to off-line classifiers, are promising.