Dynamics of the cold surface layer of polythermal Storglaciären, Sweden

Polythermal glaciers, i.e. glaciers with a combination of ice at and below the freezing point, are widespread in arctic and subarctic environments. The polythermal structure has major implications for glacier hydrology, ice flow and glacial erosion. However, the interplay of factors governing its spatial and temporal variations such as net mass balance, ice advection and water content in the ice is poorly investigated and as yet not fully understood. This study deals with a thorough investigation of the polythermal regime on Storglaciären, northern Sweden, a small valley glacier with a cold surface layer in the ablation area. Extensive field work was performed including mapping of the cold surface layer using ground-penetrating radar, ice temperature measurements, mass balance and ice velocity measurements. Analyses of these data combined with numerical modelling were used specifically to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of the cold surface layer, the spatial distribution of the water content just below the cold surface layer transition, the effect of radar frequency on the detection of the surface layer, and the sensitivity of the cold surface layer to changes in forcing. A comparison between direct temperature measurements in boreholes and ground-penetrating surveys shows that the radar-inferred cold-temperate transition depth is within ±1 m from the melting point of ice at frequencies above ~300 MHz. At frequencies below ~155 MHz, the accuracy degrades because of reduced scattering efficiency that occurs when the scatterers become much smaller compared to the wavelength. The mapped spatial pattern of the englacial cold-temperate transition boundary is complex. This pattern reflects the observed spatial variation in net loss of ice at the surface by ablation and vertical advection of ice, which is suggested to provide the predominant forcing of the cold surface layer thickness pattern. This is further supported by thermomechanical modeling of the cold surface layer, which indicates high sensitivity of the cold surface layer thickness to changes in vertical advection rates. The water content is the least investigated quantity that is relevant for the thermal regime of glaciers, but also the most difficult to assess. Spatial variability of absolute water content in the temperate ice immediately below the cold surface layer on Storglaciären was determined by combining relative estimates of water content from ground-penetrating radar data with absolute determination from temperature measurements and the thermal boundary condition at the freezing front. These measurements indicate large-scale spatial variability in the water content, which seems to arise from variations in entrapment of water at the firn-ice transition. However, this variability cannot alone explain the spatial pattern in the thermal regime on Storglaciären. Repeated surveys of the cold surface layer show a 22% average thinning of the cold surface layer on Storglaciären between 1989 and 2001. Transient thermomechanical modeling results suggest that the cold surface layer adapts to new equilibrium conditions in only a few decades after a perturbation in the forcing is introduced. An increased winter air temperature since mid-1980s seems to be the cause of the observed thinning of the cold surface layer. Over the last decades, mass balance measurements indicate that the glacier has been close to a steady state. The quasi-steady state situation is also reflected in the vertical advection, which shows no significant changes during the last decades. Increased winter temperatures at the ice surface would result in a slow-down of the formation of cold ice at the base of the cold surface layer and lead to a larger imbalance between net loss of ice at the surface and freezing of temperate ice at the cold-temperate transition.

Temperature and the synchrony of plant-insect interactions

Increasing temperatures resulting from climate change have within recent years been shown to advance phenological events in a large number of species worldwide. Species can differ in their response to increasing temperatures, and understanding the mechanisms that determine the response is therefore of great importance in order to understand and predict how a warming climate can influence both individual species, but also their interactions with each other and the environment. Understanding the mechanisms behind responses to increasing temperatures are however largely unexplored. The selected study system consisting of host plant species of the Brassicaceae family and their herbivore Anthocharis cardamines, is assumed to be especially vulnerable to climatic variations. Through the use of this study system, the aim of this thesis is to study differences in the effect of temperature on development to start of flowering within host plant species from different latitudinal regions (study I), and among host plant species (study II). We also investigate whether different developmental phases leading up to flowering differ in sensitivity to temperature (study II), and if small-scale climatic variation in spring temperature influence flowering phenology and interactions with A. cardamines (study III). Finally, we investigate if differences in the timing of A. cardamines relative to its host plants influence host species use and the selection of host individuals differing in phenology within populations (study IV). Our results showed that thermal reaction norms differ among regions along a latitudinal gradient, with the host plant species showing a mixture of co-, counter- and mixed gradient patterns (study I). We also showed that observed differences in the host plant species order of flowering among regions and years might be caused by both differences in the distribution of warm days during development and differences in the sensitivity to temperature in different phases of development (study II). In addition, we showed that small-scale variations in temperature led to variation in flowering phenology among and within populations of C. pratensis, impacting the interactions with the butterfly herbivore A. cardamines. Another result was that the less the mean plant development stage of a given plant species in the field deviated from the stage preferred by the butterfly for oviposition, the more used was the species as a host by the butterfly (study IV). Finally, we showed that the later seasonal appearance of the butterflies relative to their host plants, the higher butterfly preference for host plant individuals with a later phenology, corresponding to a preference for host plants in earlier development stages (study IV). For our study system, this thesis suggest that climate change will lead to changes in the interactions between host plants and herbivore, but that differences in phenology among host plants combined with changes in host species use of the herbivore might buffer the herbivore against negative effects of climate change. Our work highlights the need to understand the mechanisms behind differences in the responses of developmental rates to temperature between interacting species, as well as the need to account for differences in temperature response for interacting organisms from different latitudinal origins and during different developmental phases in order to understand and predict the consequences of climate change.