Modeling long-term variability and change of soil moisture and groundwater level - from catchment to global scale

The water stored in and flowing through the subsurface is fundamental for sustaining human activities and needs, feeding water and its constituents to surface water bodies and supporting the functioning of their ecosystems. Quantifying the changes that affect the subsurface water is crucial for our understanding of its dynamics and changes driven by climate change and other changes in the landscape, such as in land-use and water-use. It is inherently difficult to directly measure soil moisture and groundwater levels over large spatial scales and long times. Models are therefore needed to capture the soil moisture and groundwater level dynamics over such large spatiotemporal scales. This thesis develops a modeling framework that allows for long-term catchment-scale screening of soil moisture and groundwater level changes. The novelty in this development resides in an explicit link drawn between catchment-scale hydroclimatic and soil hydraulics conditions, using observed runoff data as an approximation of soil water flux and accounting for the effects of snow storage-melting dynamics on that flux. Both past and future relative changes can be assessed by use of this modeling framework, with future change projections based on common climate model outputs. By direct model-observation comparison, the thesis shows that the developed modeling framework can reproduce the temporal variability of large-scale changes in soil water storage, as obtained from the GRACE satellite product, for most of 25 large study catchments around the world. Also compared with locally measured soil water content and groundwater level in 10 U.S. catchments, the modeling approach can reasonably well reproduce relative seasonal fluctuations around long-term average values. The developed modeling framework is further used to project soil moisture changes due to expected future climate change for 81 catchments around the world. The future soil moisture changes depend on the considered radiative forcing scenario (RCP) but are overall large for the occurrence frequency of dry and wet events and the inter-annual variability of seasonal soil moisture. These changes tend to be higher for the dry events and the dry season, respectively, than for the corresponding wet quantities, indicating increased drought risk for some parts of the world.

A Dark Matter Search with AMANDA : Limits on the Muon Flux from Neutralino Annihilations at the Centre of the Earth with 1997-99 Data

The nature of the dark matter in the Universe is one of the greatest mysteries in modern astronomy. The neutralino is a nonbaryonic dark matter candidate in minimal supersymmetric extensions to the standard model of particle physics. If the dark matter halo of our galaxy is made up of neutralinos some would become gravitationally trapped inside massive bodies like the Earth. Their pair-wise annihilation produces neutrinos that can be detected by neutrino experiments looking in the direction of the centre of the Earth. The AMANDA neutrino telescope, currently the largest in the world, consists of an array of light detectors buried deep in the Antarctic glacier at the geographical South Pole. The extremely transparent ice acts as a Cherenkov medium for muons passing the array and using the timing information of detected photons it is possible to reconstruct the muon direction. A search has been performed for nearly vertically upgoing neutrino induced muons with AMANDA-B10 data taken over the three year period 1997-99. No excess above the atmospheric neutrino background expectation was found. Upper limits at the 90 % confidence level has been set on the annihilation rate of neutralinos at the centre of the Earth and on the muon flux induced by neutrinos created by the annihilation products.