Modeling long-term variability and change of soil moisture and groundwater level - from catchment to global scale

The water stored in and flowing through the subsurface is fundamental for sustaining human activities and needs, feeding water and its constituents to surface water bodies and supporting the functioning of their ecosystems. Quantifying the changes that affect the subsurface water is crucial for our understanding of its dynamics and changes driven by climate change and other changes in the landscape, such as in land-use and water-use. It is inherently difficult to directly measure soil moisture and groundwater levels over large spatial scales and long times. Models are therefore needed to capture the soil moisture and groundwater level dynamics over such large spatiotemporal scales. This thesis develops a modeling framework that allows for long-term catchment-scale screening of soil moisture and groundwater level changes. The novelty in this development resides in an explicit link drawn between catchment-scale hydroclimatic and soil hydraulics conditions, using observed runoff data as an approximation of soil water flux and accounting for the effects of snow storage-melting dynamics on that flux. Both past and future relative changes can be assessed by use of this modeling framework, with future change projections based on common climate model outputs. By direct model-observation comparison, the thesis shows that the developed modeling framework can reproduce the temporal variability of large-scale changes in soil water storage, as obtained from the GRACE satellite product, for most of 25 large study catchments around the world. Also compared with locally measured soil water content and groundwater level in 10 U.S. catchments, the modeling approach can reasonably well reproduce relative seasonal fluctuations around long-term average values. The developed modeling framework is further used to project soil moisture changes due to expected future climate change for 81 catchments around the world. The future soil moisture changes depend on the considered radiative forcing scenario (RCP) but are overall large for the occurrence frequency of dry and wet events and the inter-annual variability of seasonal soil moisture. These changes tend to be higher for the dry events and the dry season, respectively, than for the corresponding wet quantities, indicating increased drought risk for some parts of the world.

Dry spell mitigation to upgrade semi-arid rainfed agriculture : Water harvesting and soil nutrient management for smallholder maize cultivation in Machakos, Kenya

Improvements in on-farm water and soil fertility management through water harvesting may prove key to up-grade smallholder farming systems in dry sub-humid and semi-arid sub-Sahara Africa (SSA). The currently experienced yield levels are usually less than 1 t ha-1, i.e., 3-5 times lower than potential levels obtained by commercial farmers and researchers for similar agro-hydrological conditions. The low yield levels are ascribed to the poor crop water availability due to variable rainfall, losses in on-farm water balance and inherently low soil nutrient levels. To meet an increased food demand with less use of water and land in the region, requires farming systems that provide more yields per water unit and/or land area in the future. This thesis presents the results of a project on water harvesting system aiming to upgrade currently practised water management for maize (Zea mays, L.) in semi-arid SSA. The objectives were to a) quantify dry spell occurrence and potential impact in currently practised small-holder grain production systems, b) test agro-hydrological viability and compare maize yields in an on-farm experiment using combinations supplemental irrigation (SI) and fertilizers for maize, and c) estimate long-term changes in water balance and grain yields of a system with SI compared to farmers currently practised in-situ water harvesting. Water balance changes and crop growth were simulated in a 20-year perspective with models MAIZE1&2. Dry spell analyses showed that potentially yield-limiting dry spells occur at least 75% of seasons for 2 locations in semi-arid East Africa during a 20-year period. Dry spell occurrence was more frequent for crop cultivated on soil with low water-holding capacity than on high water-holding capacity. The analysis indicated large on-farm water losses as deep percolation and run-off during seasons despite seasonal crop water deficits. An on-farm experiment was set up during 1998-2001 in Machakos district, semi-arid Kenya. Surface run-off was collected and stored in a 300m3 earth dam. Gravity-fed supplemental irrigation was carried out to a maize field downstream of the dam. Combinations of no irrigation (NI), SI and 3 levels of N fertilizers (0, 30, 80 kg N ha-1) were applied. Over 5 seasons with rainfall ranging from 200 to 550 mm, the crop with SI and low nitrogen fertilizer gave 40% higher yields (**) than the farmers’ conventional in-situ water harvesting system. Adding only SI or only low nitrogen did not result in significantly different yields. Accounting for actual ability of a storage system and SI to mitigate dry spells, it was estimated that a farmer would make economic returns (after deduction of household consumption) between year 2-7 after investment in dam construction depending on dam sealant and labour cost used. Simulating maize growth and site water balance in a system of maize with SI increased annual grain yield with 35 % as a result of timely applications of SI. Field water balance changes in actual evapotranspiration (ETa) and deep percolation were insignificant with SI, although the absolute amount of ETa increased with 30 mm y-1 for crop with SI compared to NI. The dam water balance showed 30% productive outtake as SI of harvested water. Large losses due to seepage and spill-flow occurred from the dam. Water productivity (WP, of ETa) for maize with SI was on average 1 796 m3 per ton grain, and for maize without SI 2 254 m3 per ton grain, i.e, a decerase of WP with 25%. The water harvesting system for supplemental irrigation of maize was shown to be both biophysically and economically viable. However, adoption by farmers will depend on other factors, including investment capacity, know-how and legislative possibilities. Viability of increased water harvesting implementation in a catchment scale needs to be assessed so that other down-stream uses of water remains uncompromised.

Palaeoenvironment in North-Western Romania during the last 15 000 years

The objectives of this thesis are to establish a chronological framework for environmental changes during the last 15,000 years in northwest Romania, to reconstruct the vegetation development, and to evaluate the underlying processes for forest dynamics. Furthermore, an overview of earlier and ongoing pollenstratigraphic work in Romania is provided. Sediments from two former crater lakes, Preluca Tiganului and Steregoiu, situated in the Gutaiului Mountains, on the western extremity of the Eastern Carpathians at 730 m and 790 m a.s.l., respectively were obtained and analysed for high-resolution pollen, macrofossils, charcoal, mineral magnetic parameters and organic matter. The chronostratigraphic framework was provided by dense AMS 14C measurements. Cold and dry climatic conditions are indicated by the occurrence of open vegetation with shrubs and herbs, and cold lake water prior to 14,700 cal. yr BP. The climatic improvement at the beginning of the Lateglacial interstadial (around 14,700 cal. yr BP) is seen by the development of open forests. These were dominated by Pinus and Betula, but contained also new arriving tree taxa, such as Populus, Alnus and Prunus. The gradual establishment of forests may have led to a stabilization of the soils in the catchment. Between ca. 14,100 and 13,800 cal. yr BP the forest density became reduced to stands of Pinus, Betula, Alnus, Larix and Populus trees and grassland expanded, suggesting colder climatic conditions. Picea arrived as a new taxon at around 13,800 cal. yr BP, and between 13,800 and 12,900 cal. yr BP, the surroundings of the sites were predominantly covered by Picea forest. This forest included Betula, Pinus, Alnus, Larix and Populus and, from 13,200 cal. yr BP onwards also Ulmus. At ca. 12,900 cal. yr BP, the forest became significantly reduced and at 12,600 cal. yr BP, a recurrence of open vegetation with stands of Larix, Pinus, Betula, Salix and Alnus is documented, lasting until 11,500 cal. yr BP. This distinct change in vegetation may by taken as a strong decline in temperature and moisture availability. At the transition to the Holocene, at ca. 11,500 cal. yr BP, Pinus, Betula and Larix quickly expanded (from small local stands) and formed open forests, probably as a response to warmer and more humid climatic conditions. At 11,250 cal. yr BP Ulmus and Picea expanded and the landscape became completely forested. The rapid increase of Ulmus and Picea after 11,500 cal. yr BP may suggest the existence of small residual populations close to the study sites during the preceding cold interval. Ulmus was the first and most prominent deciduous taxa in the early Holocene in the Gutaiului Mountains. From ca. 10,750 cal. yr BP onwards Quercus, Tilia, Fraxinus and Acer expanded and Corylus arrived. A highly diverse, predominantly deciduous forest with Ulmus, Quercus, Tilia, Fraxinus, Acer, Corylus and Picea developed between 10,700 and 8200 cal. yr BP, which possibly signifies more continental climatic conditions. The development of a Picea-Corylus dominated forest between 8200 and 5700 cal. yr BP is likely connected to a more humid and cooler climate. The establishment of Carpinus and Fagus was dated to 5750 cal. yr BP and 5200 cal. yr BP, respectively. The dominance of Fagus during the late Holocene, from 4000 cal. yr BP onwards, may have been related to cooler and more humid climatic conditions. First signs of human activities are recorded around 2300 cal. yr BP, but only during the last 300 years did local human impact become significant. The vegetation development recorded in the Gutaiului Mountains during the Lateglacial is very similar to reconstructions based on lowland sites, whereas higher elevation sites seem not to have always experienced visible vegetation changes. The time of tree arrival and expansion during the past 11,500 cal. yr BP seems to have occurred almost synchronously across Romania. The composition of the forests during the Holocene in the Gutaiului Mountains is consistent with that reconstructed at mid-elevation sites, but differs from the forest composition at higher elevations. Important differences between the Gutaiului Mountains and other studied sites in Romania are a low representation of Carpinus and a late and weak human impact. The available data sets for Romania give evidence for the presence of coniferous and cold-tolerant deciduous trees before 14,700 cal. yr BP. Glacial refugia for Ulmus may have occurred in different parts of Romania, whereas the existence of Quercus, Tilia, Corylus and Fraxinus has not been corroborated.