On the lifecycle of aerosol particles : Sources and dispersion over Scandinavia

Aerosol particles are likely important contributors to our future climate. Further, during recent years, effects on human health arising from emissions of particulate material have gained increasing attention. In order to quantify the effect of aerosols on both climate and human health we need to better quantify the interplay between sources and sinks of aerosol particle number and mass on large spatial scales. So far long-term, regional observations of aerosol properties have been scarce, but argued necessary in order to bring the knowledge of regional and global distribution of aerosols further. In this context, regional studies of aerosol properties and aerosol dynamics are truly important areas of investigation. This thesis is devoted to investigations of aerosol number size distribution observations performed through the course of one year encompassing observational data from five stations covering an area from southern parts of Sweden up to northern parts of Finland. This thesis tries to give a description of aerosol size distribution dynamics from both a quantitative and qualitative point of view. The thesis focuses on properties and changes in aerosol size distribution as a function of location, season, source area, transport pathways and links to various meteorological conditions. The investigations performed in this thesis show that although the basic behaviour of the aerosol number size distribution in terms of seasonal and diurnal characteristics is similar at all stations in the measurement network, the aerosol over the Nordic countries is characterised by a typically sharp gradient in aerosol number and mass. This gradient is argued to derive from geographical locations of the stations in relation to the dominant sources and transport pathways. It is clear that the source area significantly determine the aerosol size distribution properties, but it is obvious that transport condition in terms of frequency of precipitation and cloudiness in some cases even more strongly control the evolution of the number size distribution. Aerosol dynamic processes under clear sky transport are however likewise argued to be highly important. Southerly transport of marine air and northerly transport of air from continental sources is studied in detail under clear sky conditions by performing a pseudo-Lagrangian box model evaluation of the two type cases. Results from both modelling and observations suggest that nucleation events contribute to integral number increase during southerly transport of comparably clean marine air, while number depletion dominates the evolution of the size distribution during northerly transport. This difference is largely explained by different concentration of pre-existing aerosol surface associated with the two type cases. Mass is found to be accumulated in many of the individual transport cases studied. This mass increase was argued to be controlled by emission of organic compounds from the boreal forest. This puts the boreal forest in a central position for estimates of aerosol forcing on a regional scale.

Modeling long-term variability and change of soil moisture and groundwater level - from catchment to global scale

The water stored in and flowing through the subsurface is fundamental for sustaining human activities and needs, feeding water and its constituents to surface water bodies and supporting the functioning of their ecosystems. Quantifying the changes that affect the subsurface water is crucial for our understanding of its dynamics and changes driven by climate change and other changes in the landscape, such as in land-use and water-use. It is inherently difficult to directly measure soil moisture and groundwater levels over large spatial scales and long times. Models are therefore needed to capture the soil moisture and groundwater level dynamics over such large spatiotemporal scales. This thesis develops a modeling framework that allows for long-term catchment-scale screening of soil moisture and groundwater level changes. The novelty in this development resides in an explicit link drawn between catchment-scale hydroclimatic and soil hydraulics conditions, using observed runoff data as an approximation of soil water flux and accounting for the effects of snow storage-melting dynamics on that flux. Both past and future relative changes can be assessed by use of this modeling framework, with future change projections based on common climate model outputs. By direct model-observation comparison, the thesis shows that the developed modeling framework can reproduce the temporal variability of large-scale changes in soil water storage, as obtained from the GRACE satellite product, for most of 25 large study catchments around the world. Also compared with locally measured soil water content and groundwater level in 10 U.S. catchments, the modeling approach can reasonably well reproduce relative seasonal fluctuations around long-term average values. The developed modeling framework is further used to project soil moisture changes due to expected future climate change for 81 catchments around the world. The future soil moisture changes depend on the considered radiative forcing scenario (RCP) but are overall large for the occurrence frequency of dry and wet events and the inter-annual variability of seasonal soil moisture. These changes tend to be higher for the dry events and the dry season, respectively, than for the corresponding wet quantities, indicating increased drought risk for some parts of the world.

Spatial and temporal characteristics of summer precipitation over Central Europe in a suite of high-resolution climate models

High-impact, localized intense rainfall episodes represent a major socio-economic problem for societies worldwide, and at the same time these events are notoriously difficult to simulate properly in climate models. Here, the authors investigate how horizontal resolution and model formulation influence this issue by applying the HARMONIE regional climate model (HCLIM) with three different setups; two using convection parameterization at 15 and 6.25 km horizontal resolution (the latter within the “grey-zone” scale), with lateral boundary conditions provided by ERA-Interim reanalysis and integrated over a pan-European domain, and one with explicit convection at 2 km resolution (HCLIM2) over the Alpine region driven by the 15 km model. Seven summer seasons were sampled and validated against two high-resolution observational data sets. All HCLIM versions underestimate the number of dry days and hours by 20-40%, and overestimate precipitation over the Alpine ridge. Also, only modest added value were found of “grey-zone” resolution. However, the single most important outcome is the substantial added value in HCLIM2 compared to the coarser model versions at sub-daily time scales. It better captures the local-to-regional spatial patterns of precipitation reflecting a more realistic representation of the local and meso-scale dynamics. Further, the duration and spatial frequency of precipitation events, as well as extremes, are closer to observations. These characteristics are key ingredients in heavy rainfall events and associated flash floods, and the outstanding results using HCLIM in convection-permitting setting are convincing and encourage further use of the model to study changes in such events in changing climates.