Essays on Development Policy and the Political Economy of Conflict

Electoral Rules and Leader Selection: Experimental Evidence from Ugandan Community Groups. Despite a large body of work documenting how electoral systems affect policy outcomes, less is known about their impact on leader selection. We study this by comparing two types of participatory decision making in Ugandan community groups: (i) vote by secret ballot and (ii) open discussion with consensus. Random assignment allows us to estimate the causal impact of the rules on leader types and social service delivery. Vote groups are found to elect leaders more similar to the average member while discussion group leaders are positively selected on socio-economic characteristics. Further, dropout rates are significantly higher in discussion groups, particularly for poorer members. After 3.5 years, vote groups are larger in size and their members save less and get smaller loans. We conclude that the secret ballot vote creates more inclusive groups while open discussion groups favor the already economically successful. Preparing for Genocide: Community Meetings in Rwanda. How do political elites prepare the civilian population for participation in violent conflict? We empirically investigate this question using data from the Rwandan Genocide in 1994. Every Saturday before 1994, Rwandan villagers had to meet to work on community infrastructure. The practice was highly politicized and, according to anecdotal evidence, regularly used by the political elites for spreading propaganda in the years before the genocide. This paper presents the first quantitative evidence of this abuse of the community meetings. To establish causality, we exploit cross-sectional variation in meeting intensity induced by exogenous weather fluctuations. We find that an additional rainy Saturday resulted in a five percent lower civilian participation rate in genocide violence. Selection into Borrowing: Survey Evidence from Uganda. In this paper, I study how changes to the standard credit contract affect loan demand and selection into borrowing, using a representative sample of urban micro enterprises, most with no borrowing experience. Hypothetical loan demand questions are used to test whether firm owners respond to changes in loans' contractual terms and whether take-up varies by firms' risk type and other firm owner characteristics. The results indicate that contracts with lower interest rates and less stringent collateral requirements attract less risky borrowers, suggesting that there is scope for improvement of standard financial contract terms. Credit Contract Structure and Firm Growth: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial. We study the effects of credit contract structure on firm outcomes among small and medium sized firms. A randomized control trial was carried out to distinguish between some of the key constraints to efficient credit use connected to the firms' business environment and production function, namely (i) backloaded returns (ii) uncertain returns and (iii) indivisible fixed costs. Each firm was followed for the 1-year loan cycle. We describe the experiment and present preliminary results from the first 754 out of 2,340 firms to have completed the loan cycle. Firms offered a grace period have higher profits and higher household income than firms receiving a rebate later on as well as the control group. They also increased the number of paid employees  and reduced the number of unpaid employees, an effect also found among firms that received a cash subsidy at the beginning of the loan cycle. We discuss potential mechanisms behind these effects.

Factors structuring Fucus communities at open and complex coastlines in the Baltic Sea

This thesis deals with physical factors and biological interactions affecting the distribution of two fucoid species, Fucus vesiculosus and F. serratus, in the Baltic Sea. Studies have been carried out in two quite different environments: an archipelago, and an open rocky coast. The archipelago has an extremely long coastline with a heterogeneous submerged landscape of different substrate types, slopes, water qualities, and degrees of wave exposure. The factors influencing F. vesiculosus distribution, morphology and epiphyte composition were studied in the Stockholm archipelago using field surveys and spatial modelling in Geographic information systems (GIS). A GIS-method to estimate wave exposure was developed and validated by comparing the result to an index based on vertical zonation of lichens. Wave exposure was considered an important factor for predicting the distribution of F. vesiculosus by its ability to clean hard surfaces from silt, and a predictive model was constructed based on the information of wave exposure and slope of the shore. It is suggested that the lower distribution boundary of attached F. vesiculosus is set by sediment in sheltered parts of the archipelago, and by light availability in highly wave exposed parts. The morphology of F. vesiculosus was studied over a wave exposure gradient, and several characters responded in accordance with earlier studies. However, when separating effects of wave exposure from effects of other confounding water property parameters, only thallus width was significantly different. Several water property parameters were shown to be correlated with wave exposure in the Stockholm archipelago, and the mechanism responsible for the effects on F. vesiculosus morphology is discussed. The composition of epiphytes on F. vesiculosus varied over a wave exposure gradient with a positive correlation to Elachista fucicola, and a negative to Chorda filum. At an open coast the physical environment is much less heterogeneous compared to an archipelago. The distributions of F. vesiculosus, F. serratus, turf-forming algae, and the seafloor substrate, were surveyed along the open coasts of Öland and Gotland. Turf-forming algae dominated all hard substrates in the area, and Polysiphonia fucoides was most abundant. At the Gotland coast F. vesiculosus was less abundant than at the Öland coast, and F. serratus occurred only in the southern-most part. Fucus serratus was increasingly more common towards south which was interpreted as an effect mainly of the Baltic salinity gradient, or the variation of salinity that has occurred in the past. The effects of turf-forming algae and sediment on F. serratus recruitment at 7 m depth off the Öland east coast were studied in the field, and by laboratory experiments. Almost no recruits were found in the algal turf outside the F. serratus patches. More fine sediment was found in the turf than in the F. serratus patches, suggesting that the turf accumulates sediment by decreasing resuspension. Both filamentous algae and sediment decreased the attachment ability of F. serratus zygotes and survival of recruits, and sediment had the strongest effect. It is therefore suggested that F. serratus has difficulties recruiting outside its patches, and that these difficulties are enforced by the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, which has favoured growth of filamentous algae and increased sedimentation. An overall conclusion is that Fucus distribution is affected by large-scale-factors, such as the eutrophication and salinity changes of the Baltic Sea, as well as by small-scale variation in wave exposure, substrate and slope, and by surface competition with neighbouring species.

Land, Power and Technology : Essays on Political Economy and Historical Development

Land Ownership and Development: Evidence from Postwar Japan This paper analyzes the effect of land ownership on technology adoption and structural transformation. A large-scale land reform in postwar Japan enforced a large number of tenant farmers who were cultivating land to become owners of this land. I find that the municipalities which had many owner farmers after the land reform tended to experience a quick entry of new agricultural machines which became available after the reform. The adoption of the machines reduced the dependence on family labor, and led to a reallocation of labor from agriculture to industries and service sectors in urban centers when these sectors were growing. I also analyze the aggregate impact of labor reallocation on economic growth by using a simple growth model and micro data. I find that it increased GDP by about 12 percent of the GDP in 1974 during 1955-74. I also find a large and positive effect on agricultural productivity. Loyalty and Treason: Theory and Evidence from Japan's Land Reform A historically large-scale land reform in Japan after World War II enforced by the occupation forces redistributed a large area of farmlands to tenant farmers. The reform demolished hierarchical structures by weakening landlords' power in villages and towns. This paper investigates how the change in the social and economic structure of small communities affects electoral outcomes in the presence of clientelism. I find that there was a considerable decrease in the vote share of conservative parties in highly affected areas after the reform. I find the supporting evidence that the effect was driven by the fact that the tenant farmers who had obtained land exited from the long-term tenancy contract and became independent landowners. The effect was relatively persistent. Finally, I also find the surprising result that there was a decrease, rather than an increase, in turnout in these areas after the reform.  Geography and State Fragmentation We examine how geography affects the location of borders between sovereign states in Europe and surrounding areas from 1500 until today at the grid-cell level. This is motivated by an observation that the richest places in this region also have the highest historical border presence, suggesting a hitherto unexplored link between geography and modern development, working through state fragmentation. The raw correlations show that borders tend to be located on mountains, by rivers, closer to coasts, and in areas suitable for rainfed, but not irrigated, agriculture. Many of these patterns also hold with rigorous spatial controls. For example, cells with more rivers and more rugged terrain than their neighboring cells have higher border densities. However, the fragmenting effects of suitability for rainfed agriculture are reversed with such neighbor controls. Moreover, we find that borders are less likely to survive over time when they separate large states from small, but this size-difference effect is mitigated by, e.g., rugged terrain.