Glaciers and climate in northern Sweden during the 19th and 20th century

Our understanding of the climate of northern Sweden during the late Holocene is largely dependent on proxy-data series. These datasets remain spatially and temporally sparse and instrumental series are rare prior to the mid 19th century. Nevertheless, the glaciology and paleo-glaciology of the region has a strong potential significance for the exploration of climate change scenarios, past and future. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the 19th and 20th century climate in the northern Swedish mountain range. This provides a good opportunity to analyse the natural variability of the climate before the onset of the industrial epoch. Developing a temporal understanding of fluctuations in glacier front positions and glacier mass balance that is linked to a better understanding of their interaction and relative significance to climate is fundamental in the assessment of past climate. I have chosen to investigate previously unexplored temperature data from northern Sweden from between 1802 and 1860 and combined it with a temperature series from a synoptic station in Haparanda, which began operation in 1859, in order to create a reliable long temperature series for the period 1802 to 2002. I have also investigated two different glaciers, Pårteglaciären and Salajekna, which are located in different climatic environments. These glaciers have, from a Swedish perspective, long observational records. Furthermore, I have investigated a recurring jökulhlaup at the glacier Sälkaglaciären in order to analyse glacier-climate relationships with respect to the jökulhlaups. A number of datasets are presented, including: glacier frontal changes, in situ and photogrammetric mass balance data, in situ and satellite radar interferometry measurements of surface velocity, radar measurements, ice volume data and a temperature series. All these datasets are analysed in order to investigate the response of the glaciers to climatic stimuli, to attribute specific behaviour to particular climates and to analyse the 19th and 20th century glacier/climate relationships in northern Sweden. The 19th century was characterized by cold conditions in northern Sweden, particularly in winter. Significant changes in the amplitude of the annual temperature cycle are evident. Through the 19th century there is a marked decreasing trend in the amplitude of the data, suggesting a change towards a prevalence of maritime (westerly) air masses, something which has characterised the 20th century. The investigations on Salajekna support the conclusion that the major part of the 19th century was cold and dry. The 19th century advance of Salajekna was probably caused by colder climate in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, coupled with a weakening of the westerly airflow. The investigations on Pårteglaciären show that the glacier has a response time of ~200 years. It also suggests that there was a relatively high frequency of easterly winds providing the glacier with winter precipitation during the 19th century. Glaciers have very different response times and are sensitive to different climatic parameters. Glaciers in rather continental areas of the Subarctic and Arctic can have very long response times because of mass balance considerations and not primarily the glacier dynamics. This is of vital importance for analyzing Arctic and Subarctic glacier behaviour in a global change perspective. It is far from evident that the behaviour of the glacier fronts today reflects the present climate.

Mountain centered icefields in northern Scandinavia

Mountain centered glaciers have played a major role throughout the last three million years in the Scandinavian mountains. The climatic extremes, like the present warm interglacial or cold glacial maxima, are very short-lived compared to the periods of intermediate climate conditions, characterized by the persistence of mountain based glaciers and ice fields of regional size. These have persisted in the Scandinavian mountains for about 65% of the Quaternary. Mountain based glaciers thus had a profound impact on large-scale geomorphology, which is manifested in large-scale glacial landforms such as fjords, glacial lakes and U-shaped valleys in and close to the mountain range. Through a mapping of glacial landforms in the northern Scandinavian mountain range, in particular a striking set of lateral moraines, this thesis offers new insights into Weichselian stages predating the last glacial maximum. The aerial photograph mapping and field evidence yield evidence that these lateral moraines were overridden by glacier ice subsequent to their formation. The lateral moraines were dated using terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide techniques. Although the terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide signature of the moraines is inconclusive, an early Weichselian age is tentatively suggested through correlations with other landforms and stratigraphical archives in the region. The abundance and coherent spatial pattern of the lateral moraines also allow a spatial reconstruction of this ice field. The ice field was controlled by topography and had nunataks protruding also where it was thickest close to the elevation axis of the Scandinavian mountain range. Outlet glaciers discharged into the Norwegian fjords and major valleys in Sweden. The process by which mountain based glaciers grow into an ice sheet is a matter of debate. In this thesis, a feedback mechanism between debris on the ice surface and ice sheet growth is presented. In essence, the growth of glaciers and ice sheets may be accelerated by an abundance of debris in their ablation areas. This may occur when the debris cover on the glacier surface inhibits ablation, effectively increasing the glaciers mass balance. It is thus possible that a dirty ablation area may cause the glacier to advance further than a clean glacier under similar conditions. An ice free period of significant length allows soil production through weathering, frost shattering, and slope processes. As glaciers advance through this assemblage of sediments, significant amounts of debris end up on the surface due to both mass wastage and subglacial entrainment. Evidence that this chain of events may occur, is given by large expanses of hummocky moraine (local name Veiki moraine) in the northern Swedish lowlands. Because the Veiki moraine has been correlated with the first Weichselian advance following the Eemian, it implies a heavily debris charged ice sheet emanating from the mountain range and terminating in a stagnant fashion in the lowlands.

Modeling long-term variability and change of soil moisture and groundwater level - from catchment to global scale

The water stored in and flowing through the subsurface is fundamental for sustaining human activities and needs, feeding water and its constituents to surface water bodies and supporting the functioning of their ecosystems. Quantifying the changes that affect the subsurface water is crucial for our understanding of its dynamics and changes driven by climate change and other changes in the landscape, such as in land-use and water-use. It is inherently difficult to directly measure soil moisture and groundwater levels over large spatial scales and long times. Models are therefore needed to capture the soil moisture and groundwater level dynamics over such large spatiotemporal scales. This thesis develops a modeling framework that allows for long-term catchment-scale screening of soil moisture and groundwater level changes. The novelty in this development resides in an explicit link drawn between catchment-scale hydroclimatic and soil hydraulics conditions, using observed runoff data as an approximation of soil water flux and accounting for the effects of snow storage-melting dynamics on that flux. Both past and future relative changes can be assessed by use of this modeling framework, with future change projections based on common climate model outputs. By direct model-observation comparison, the thesis shows that the developed modeling framework can reproduce the temporal variability of large-scale changes in soil water storage, as obtained from the GRACE satellite product, for most of 25 large study catchments around the world. Also compared with locally measured soil water content and groundwater level in 10 U.S. catchments, the modeling approach can reasonably well reproduce relative seasonal fluctuations around long-term average values. The developed modeling framework is further used to project soil moisture changes due to expected future climate change for 81 catchments around the world. The future soil moisture changes depend on the considered radiative forcing scenario (RCP) but are overall large for the occurrence frequency of dry and wet events and the inter-annual variability of seasonal soil moisture. These changes tend to be higher for the dry events and the dry season, respectively, than for the corresponding wet quantities, indicating increased drought risk for some parts of the world.