Modeling long-term variability and change of soil moisture and groundwater level - from catchment to global scale

The water stored in and flowing through the subsurface is fundamental for sustaining human activities and needs, feeding water and its constituents to surface water bodies and supporting the functioning of their ecosystems. Quantifying the changes that affect the subsurface water is crucial for our understanding of its dynamics and changes driven by climate change and other changes in the landscape, such as in land-use and water-use. It is inherently difficult to directly measure soil moisture and groundwater levels over large spatial scales and long times. Models are therefore needed to capture the soil moisture and groundwater level dynamics over such large spatiotemporal scales. This thesis develops a modeling framework that allows for long-term catchment-scale screening of soil moisture and groundwater level changes. The novelty in this development resides in an explicit link drawn between catchment-scale hydroclimatic and soil hydraulics conditions, using observed runoff data as an approximation of soil water flux and accounting for the effects of snow storage-melting dynamics on that flux. Both past and future relative changes can be assessed by use of this modeling framework, with future change projections based on common climate model outputs. By direct model-observation comparison, the thesis shows that the developed modeling framework can reproduce the temporal variability of large-scale changes in soil water storage, as obtained from the GRACE satellite product, for most of 25 large study catchments around the world. Also compared with locally measured soil water content and groundwater level in 10 U.S. catchments, the modeling approach can reasonably well reproduce relative seasonal fluctuations around long-term average values. The developed modeling framework is further used to project soil moisture changes due to expected future climate change for 81 catchments around the world. The future soil moisture changes depend on the considered radiative forcing scenario (RCP) but are overall large for the occurrence frequency of dry and wet events and the inter-annual variability of seasonal soil moisture. These changes tend to be higher for the dry events and the dry season, respectively, than for the corresponding wet quantities, indicating increased drought risk for some parts of the world.

A Unified Framework for e-Commerce Systems Development : Business Process Pattern Perspective

In electronic commerce, systems development is based on two fundamental types of models, business models and process models. A business model is concerned with value exchanges among business partners, while a process model focuses on operational and procedural aspects of business communication. Thus, a business model defines the what in an e-commerce system, while a process model defines the how. Business process design can be facilitated and improved by a method for systematically moving from a business model to a process model. Such a method would provide support for traceability, evaluation of design alternatives, and seamless transition from analysis to realization. This work proposes a unified framework that can be used as a basis to analyze, to interpret and to understand different concepts associated at different stages in e-Commerce system development. In this thesis, we illustrate how UN/CEFACT’s recommended metamodels for business and process design can be analyzed, extended and then integrated for the final solutions based on the proposed unified framework. Also, as an application of the framework, we demonstrate how process-modeling tasks can be facilitated in e-Commerce system design. The proposed methodology, called BP3 stands for Business Process Patterns Perspective. The BP3 methodology uses a question-answer interface to capture different business requirements from the designers. It is based on pre-defined process patterns, and the final solution is generated by applying the captured business requirements by means of a set of production rules to complete the inter-process communication among these patterns.