12 resultados para Kernel estimator and ROC-GLM methodology

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This report was prepared at the request of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) with support from the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) to assess strategies for linking the ECLAC Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLA) Methology to the Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA). Each metholodolgy was individually outlined and their use in the Caribbean context was explored in detail to set the framework or lens through which their linking would be viewed. Other methologies that are used within the recovery process were identified and outlined. A gap analysis was conducted on moving from the PDNA with a focus on initial rapid reponse to DaLA. DaLA training materials were reviewed to assess where improvements can be made to seamlessly move from one methology to the next. Additionally, both DaLA and PDNA reports were reviewed to identify specific areas of information which could serve as common data links, and note how this linkage could inform the overall disaster assessments in the region. This is in addition to noting any similarities or variance in the application of both methologies. Challenges to linking both methodologies were identified such as countries lacking well defined recovery frameworks and their ability to fund or finance recovery efforts, in addition to recurrent challenges in the Caribbean region such as inadequacy of baseline data, human resource and training, and identifying teams to conduct the data collection. Recommendations made in terms of the strategies to be employed for the successful linking of both the DaLA and PDNA Methodologies included: creating and maintaining a recovery framework and baseline data; creation of a minimum requirements list for the successful implementation of PDNA and DaLA implementation; and increasing political will in addition to identify a champion to push the subject.

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The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has been a pioneer in the field of disaster assessment and in the development and dissemination of the Disaster Assessment Methodology. The organization’s history in assessing disasters started in 1972 with the earthquake that struck Managua, Nicaragua. Since then, ECLAC has led more than 90 assessments of the social, environmental and economic effects and impacts of disasters in 28 countries in the region. The Sustainable Development and Disaster Unit provides expert assistance in disaster assessment and disaster risk reduction to Caribbean states and to all countries across Latin America. Considering that assessing the effects and impacts of disasters is critical to the Latin American and Caribbean countries, the Unit has started a new cycle of training courses. The training is designed for policymakers and professionals involved directly with disaster risk management and risk reduction. Additionally, and since the methodology is comprehensive in approach, it is also designed for sector specialists, providing a multisectoral overview of the situation after a disaster, as well as an economic estimate of the damages, losses and additional costs. In an attempt to strengthen disaster risk reduction through its financial instruments, the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES for its acronym in Portuguese) of Brazil requested that ECLAC undertake a four-day training programme on the Disaster Assessment Methodology.

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It is not possible to trace the early demographic development of the Turks and Caicos Islands due to lack of data, but what is evident from the limited historical data is that population developments beginning in 1921 and up to 1970 followed the same path as other Caribbean Islands. The Turks and Caicos Islands have experienced unprecedented population growth over the last twenty years due largely to the immigration of people from neighbouring countries seeking employment created by the development of tourism. Such rapid population changes for the small island group present many social, economic, environmental and political challenges. Population projections are essential so that policymakers and decision makers can make informed judgements about future strategies, policies and programmes.

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In 2009 Argentina implemented the Universal Child Allowance for Social Protection (AUH), a cash transfer programme for households with children. Coverage provided by the contributory family allowance programme was extended to parents who are unemployed or who work in the informal sector (domestic workers, for example). This paper uses the difference-in-difference estimator and propensity score matching techniques to evaluate the short-term effects of the auh on adult labour participation and income generation. The results suggest that, during its first year of operation, no significant disincentives to work were generated by the programme, given that it did not discourage adults from working or lead to a reduction in the number of hours worked. These findings are highly relevant in the Latin American context where these kinds of cash transfers have become an important component of social protection systems.