Development of a modelling framework in support of an assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change in the Caribbean: the ECLAC – CIAM Model

The Caribbean region remains highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In order to assess the social and economic consequences of climate change for the region, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean( ECLAC) has developed a model for this purpose. The model is referred to as the Climate Impact Assessment Model (ECLAC-CIAM) and is a tool that can simultaneously assess multiple sectoral climate impacts specific to the Caribbean as a whole and for individual countries. To achieve this goal, an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) with a Computable General Equilibrium Core was developed comprising of three modules to be executed sequentially. The first of these modules defines the type and magnitude of economic shocks on the basis of a climate change scenario, the second module is a global Computable General Equilibrium model with a special regional and industrial classification and the third module processes the output of the CGE model to get more disaggregated results. The model has the potential to produce several economic estimates but the current default results include percentage change in real national income for individual Caribbean states which provides a simple measure of welfare impacts. With some modifications, the model can also be used to consider the effects of single sectoral shocks such as (Land, Labour, Capital and Tourism) on the percentage change in real national income. Ultimately, the model is envisioned as an evolving tool for assessing the impact of climate change in the Caribbean and as a guide to policy responses with respect to adaptation strategies.

Expectations and industrial output in Uruguay: Sectoral interdependence and common trends

This paper examines the interdependence between expectations and growth by analysing Uruguayan manufacturing industry, divided for the purpose into four industry groupings differentiated by trade participation and production specialization. The study shows that there is a long-run relationship between industrialists' expectations and output growth in each grouping. In the most trade-oriented groupings the relationship is one of predetermination, showing how useful expectations are as a guide to sectoral growth. Expectations in the four industrial groupings are shown to follow a common long-run trend, identified with the one guiding the export grouping. Impulse-response simulations derived from a multisectoral vector autoregression (VAR) model confirm the important role of the industries most exposed to international competition in spreading shorter-term shocks.

Trade and financial liberalization in the context of external shocks and inconsistent domestic policies

Includes bibliography

Macroeconomic policies in times of crisis: options and perspectives

Includes bibliography

Foreign investment in Mexico after economic reform

Includes bibliography

Possible transmission of adverse shocks from the recent financial crisis to Central America through trade finance

Includes Bibliography

Distribución del ingreso, asignación de recursos y shocks macroeconómicos: un modelo de equilibrio general computado para la Argentina en 1993

Incluye Bibliografía

Efectos de los shocks macroeconómicos y de las políticas de ajuste sobre la distribución del ingreso en Colombia

Incluye Bibliografía

Distribución del ingreso, shocks y políticas macroeconómicas

Incluye Bibliografía

Impactos económicos y sociales de shocks energéticos en Chile: un análisis de equilibrio general

Incluye Bibliografía

La política fiscal y los shocks externos

Incluye Bibliografía

The adjustment strategies of Mexican ejidatarios in the face of neoliberal reform

Includes bibliography

Sectoral regimes, productivity and international competitiveness

Includes bibliography

Non-sectoral agents and recent changes in Argentina's agricultural sector

Includes bibliography

Peru: integration, sectoral specialization and synchronization with international gross domestic product cycles

Includes bibliography