20 resultados para interpretive policy analysis

em Comissão Econômica para a América Latina e o Caribe (CEPAL)


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This article contains a theoretical and policy analysis of the financial constraints on economic development in developing countries. Following a Keynesian interpretation, it concludes that financial policies are needed to relieve these constraints, given the natural tendency of financial systems to operate in ways that are dysfunctional to economic development. It then proposes three lines of policy that take account of the special characteristics of developing countries: resource allocation policies targeted at segments of strategic importance for economic and financial development; policies to control financial and external fragility; and compensatory policies of a more interventionist cast, in particular directed credit programmes for both public- and private-sector lending to complement resource allocation policies, and countercyclical regulatory barriers so that fragility can be better controlled.

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Includes bibliography

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Using two standard cycle methodologies (Classical and Deviation Cycle) and a comprehensive sample of 83 countries worldwide, including all developing regions, we show that the Latin American and Caribbean cycle exhibits two distinctive features. First, and most importantly, its expansion performance is shorter and for the most par less imtense than that of the rest of the regions considered, and in particular than that of East Asia and the Pacific, East Asia and the Pacific's expansions last five years longer than those of LAC, and its output gain is 50% greater than that of LAC. Second, LAC tends to exhibit contractions that are not significantly different in terms of duration and amplitude than t those of other regions. Both these features imply that the complete Latin American and Caribbean cycle has, overall, the shortest duration and smallest amplitude in relation to other regions. The specificities of the Latin American and Caribbean cycle are not confined to the short run. These are also reflected in variables such as productivity and investment, which are linked to long-run growth. East Asia and the Pacific's cumulative gain in labor productivity during the expansionary phase is twice that of LAC. Moreover, the evidence also shows that the effects of the contraction in public investment surpass those of the expansion leading to a declining trend over the entire cycle. In this sense we suggest that policy analysis needs to increase its focus on the expansionary phase of the cycle. Improving our knowledge of the differences in the expansionary dynamics of countries and regions, can further our understanding of the differences in their rates of growth and levels of development. We also suggest that while, the management of the cycle affects the short-run fluctuations of economic activity and hence volatility, it is not trend neutral. Hence, the effects of aggregate demand management policies may be more persistent over time and less transitory than currently thought.

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Three factors define the main difficulties faced by developing countries in the area of trade facilitation: (i) limited understanding and use by governments and business (especially SMEs) of trade facilitation and of ICT tools and techniques; (ii) developing countries' limited capacity for policy analysis and inadequate policy instruments for the implementation of trade facilitation, and (iii) inadequate policy coordination for negotiation on trade facilitation. These obstacles tend to reduce countries' development opportunities and to increase the costs of general economic development and social welfare.The United Nations, through its five regional commissions, is launching a project that seeks to disseminate the benefits of trade facilitation and the standards, tools and requirements for its successful implementation. The project will focus on trade facilitation promoted by: (a) enhanced knowledge and understanding of governments and business regarding trade facilitation and the role of ICT; (b) enhanced use of ICT by SMEs in trade facilitation, and (c) national capacity-building for trade facilitation negotiations.

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The notions of inclusion and exclusion have a long tradition in sociology, but have gained significant currency more recently in public policy analysis. However, a certain conceptual inflexibility arises when the distinction is applied to complex social situations. This article examines the main approaches to inclusion/exclusion in the sociological tradition, systems theory and the theory of new inequalities. On this basis, five interrelated situations of inclusion and exclusion are constructed: self-inclusion/self-exclusion, inclusion by risk/exclusion by danger, compensatory inclusion, inclusion in exclusion and sub-inclusion. They are illustrated with specific examples to refine an analytical approach to problems of inclusion and exclusion, with a view to contributing to sociological analysis and to assessing the consequences of public and private decisions.

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