18 resultados para expectations gap

em Comissão Econômica para a América Latina e o Caribe (CEPAL)


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Spanish version available

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This edition of the FAL Bulletin addresses the topic of transport infrastructure growth and its relationship to trade in Latin America. This study, examining the cases of four Latin American countries.

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This edition of the FAL Bulletin analyzes the impact of economic infrastructure on development in Latin America and the Caribbean and looks at future investment needs for 2006-2020. It reviews the specialized literature and updates the statistical information available on public and private investment in developing economic infrastructure in some countries in the region.

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This edition of the FAL Bulletin aims to present and encourage the use of the economic infrastructure investment database for Latin America and the Caribbean (EII-LAC-DB), built by the Infrastructure Services Unit of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). The information contained refers to the period 1980-2012, in keeping with measurements undertaken by the World Bank, ECLAC and under the cooperation agreement between ECLAC and the Development Bank of Latin America (CAF).

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This paper examines the interdependence between expectations and growth by analysing Uruguayan manufacturing industry, divided for the purpose into four industry groupings differentiated by trade participation and production specialization. The study shows that there is a long-run relationship between industrialists' expectations and output growth in each grouping. In the most trade-oriented groupings the relationship is one of predetermination, showing how useful expectations are as a guide to sectoral growth. Expectations in the four industrial groupings are shown to follow a common long-run trend, identified with the one guiding the export grouping. Impulse-response simulations derived from a multisectoral vector autoregression (VAR) model confirm the important role of the industries most exposed to international competition in spreading shorter-term shocks.