International migration, capital flows and the global economy: a long run view

Includes bibliography

Long run economic development in Latin America in a comparative perspective: proximate and ultimate causes

Includes bibliography

Extraordinary comparative advantage and long-run growth: the case of Ecuador

Includes bibliography

Expectations and industrial output in Uruguay: Sectoral interdependence and common trends

This paper examines the interdependence between expectations and growth by analysing Uruguayan manufacturing industry, divided for the purpose into four industry groupings differentiated by trade participation and production specialization. The study shows that there is a long-run relationship between industrialists' expectations and output growth in each grouping. In the most trade-oriented groupings the relationship is one of predetermination, showing how useful expectations are as a guide to sectoral growth. Expectations in the four industrial groupings are shown to follow a common long-run trend, identified with the one guiding the export grouping. Impulse-response simulations derived from a multisectoral vector autoregression (VAR) model confirm the important role of the industries most exposed to international competition in spreading shorter-term shocks.

The fiscal impact of trade liberalization and commodity price fluctuation: the case of Costa Rica, 1980-1998

Includes bibliography

The Canadian retirement income system

Includes bibliography

Structural reforms, technological gaps and economic development: a Latin American perspective

Includes bibliography

Argentine convertibility: is it a relevant precedent for the dollarization process in Ecuador?

Includes bibliography

Centroamérica: efecto de la integración con Estados Unidos sobre el mercado regional del maíz. Un análisis espacial de precios

Incluye Bibliografía

From hard-peg to hard landing?: recent experiences of Argentina and Ecuador

Includes bibliography

Weak expansions: a distinctive feature of the business cycle in Latin America and the Caribbean

Using two standard cycle methodologies (Classical and Deviation Cycle) and a comprehensive sample of 83 countries worldwide, including all developing regions, we show that the Latin American and Caribbean cycle exhibits two distinctive features. First, and most importantly, its expansion performance is shorter and for the most par less imtense than that of the rest of the regions considered, and in particular than that of East Asia and the Pacific, East Asia and the Pacific's expansions last five years longer than those of LAC, and its output gain is 50% greater than that of LAC. Second, LAC tends to exhibit contractions that are not significantly different in terms of duration and amplitude than t those of other regions. Both these features imply that the complete Latin American and Caribbean cycle has, overall, the shortest duration and smallest amplitude in relation to other regions. The specificities of the Latin American and Caribbean cycle are not confined to the short run. These are also reflected in variables such as productivity and investment, which are linked to long-run growth. East Asia and the Pacific's cumulative gain in labor productivity during the expansionary phase is twice that of LAC. Moreover, the evidence also shows that the effects of the contraction in public investment surpass those of the expansion leading to a declining trend over the entire cycle. In this sense we suggest that policy analysis needs to increase its focus on the expansionary phase of the cycle. Improving our knowledge of the differences in the expansionary dynamics of countries and regions, can further our understanding of the differences in their rates of growth and levels of development. We also suggest that while, the management of the cycle affects the short-run fluctuations of economic activity and hence volatility, it is not trend neutral. Hence, the effects of aggregate demand management policies may be more persistent over time and less transitory than currently thought.

The evolution of world income inequality: assessing the impact of globalization

Includes bibliography

Globalizing talent and human capital: implications for developing countries

Includes bibliography

Economic growth in Latin America in the late 20th century: evidence and interpretation

Includes bibliography

Savings, investment and growth in the global age: analytical and policy issues

Includes bibliography