An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

There are significant, fundamental changes taking place in global air and sea surface temperatures and sea levels. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change noted that many of the warmest years on the instrumental record of global surface temperatures have occurred within the last twelve years, i.e. 1995-2006 (IPCC, 2007). The Caribbean tourism product is particularly vulnerable to climate change. On the demand side, mitigation measures in other countries – for example, measures to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels – could have implications for airfares and cruise prices and, therefore, for the demand for travel, particularly to long-haul destinations such as the Caribbean (Clayton, 2009). On the supply side, sea level rise will cause beaches to disappear and damage coastal resorts. Changes in the frequency and severity of hurricanes are likely to magnify that damage. Other indirect impacts on the tourism product include rising insurance premiums and competition for water resources (Cashman, Cumberbatch, & Moore, 2012). The present report has used information on historic and future Caribbean climate data to calculate that the Caribbean tourism climatic index (TCI) ranges from −20 (impossible) to +100 (ideal). In addition to projections for the Caribbean, the report has produced TCI projections for the New York City area (specifically, Central Park), which have been used as comparators for Caribbean country projections. The conditions in the source market provide a benchmark against which visitors may judge their experience in the tourism destination. The historical and forecasted TCIs for the Caribbean under both the A2 and B2 climate scenarios of the IPCC suggest that climatic conditions in the Caribbean are expected to deteriorate, and are likely to become less conducive to tourism. More specifically, the greatest decline in the TCI is likely to occur during the northern hemisphere summer months from May to September. At the same time, the scenario analysis indicates that home conditions during the traditional tourist season (December – April) are likely to improve, which could make it more attractive for visitors from these markets to consider ‘staycations’ as an alternative to overseas trips.

Working paper on the eLAC 2018 Digital Agenda in consideration of Caribbean priorities for technology-supported development

eLAC 2018 will coordinate the implementation of programmes to support the use of information and communications technologies (ICTs) in achieving social and economic development goals for Latin America in the Caribbean during the 2015-2018 timeframe. The conceptual framework for this programme of work is described by the eLAC 2018 Digital Agenda, which is anticipated to be ratified by the fifth Ministerial Conference on the Information Society in Latin America and the Caribbean, to be held in August 2015 in Mexico City. There is a need for broader input from Caribbean countries to the eLAC 2018 Digital Agenda. Accordingly, this working paper reviews the document’s current draft, considering each of its objectives in the context of Caribbean development needs. Amendments are recommended to 12 of the objectives. Two additional objectives are also proposed, in the areas of regional coordination on universal service funds, and the establishment of a spatial data infrastructure to support the use of geographic information systems. Representatives of Caribbean countries are invited to use the contents of this document as an input to the development of their own proposed amendments for inclusion in the final version of the eLAC 2018 Digital Agenda.