9 resultados para Short-Term assessment of risk and treatability
em Comissão Econômica para a América Latina e o Caribe (CEPAL)
Resumo:
The current energy systems within Curaçao depend primarily on high cost, imported fossil fuels, and typically constitute power sectors that are characterized by small, inefficient generation plants which result in high energy prices. As a consequence of its dependence on external fuel supplies, Curaçao is extremely vulnerable to international oil price shocks, which can impact on economic planning and foreign direct investment within their industrial sectors. The ability of the successive governments to source capital for economic stimulation and social investment is therefore significantly challenging. Additionally, there is over-dependence on two of the most climate-sensitive economic sectors, namely the tourism and fisheries sectors, but the vulnerabilities of the country to the effects of climate change make adaptation difficult and costly. It is within this context that this report focuses on identification of the fiscal and regulatory barriers to implementation of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies in Curaçao with a view of making recommendations for removal of these barriers. Consultations with key Government officials, the private sector as well as civil society were conducted to obtain information and data on the energy sector in the country. Desktop research was also conducted to supplement the information gathered from the consultations. The major result of the assessment is that Curaçao is at an early stage in the definition of its energy sector. Despite some infrastructural legacies of the pre-independence era, as well as a number of recent developments including the modernization and expansion of its windfarms and completion of a modern Electricity Policy, there are still a number of important institutional and policy gaps within the energy sector in Curaçao. The most significant deficiency is the absence of a ministry or Government agency with portfolio responsibility for the energy sector as a whole; this has: limited the degree to which the activities of energy sector stakeholders are coordinated and retarded the development and implementation of a comprehensive national energy policy. The absence of an energy policy, which provides the framework for energy planning, increases investor risk. Also, the lack of political continuity that has emanated from the frequent changes in Government administrations is a concern among stakeholders and has served to reduce investor confidence in particular, and market confidence in general.
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Includes bibliography.
Resumo:
Belize is currently faced with several critical challenges associated with the production, distribution and use of energy. Despite an abundance of renewable energy resources, the country remains disproportionately dependent on imported fossil fuels, which exposes it to volatile and rising oil prices, limits economic development, and retards its ability to make the investments that are necessary for adapting to climate change, which pose a particularly acute threat to the small island states and low-lying coastal nations of the Caribbean. This transition from energy consumption and supply patterns that are based on imported fossil fuels and electricity towards a more sustainable energy economy that is based on environmentally benign, indigenous renewable energy technologies and more efficient use of energy requires concerted action as the country is already challenged by limited fiscal space which reduces its ability to provide some fiscal incentives, which have been proven to be effective tools for the promotion of sustainable energy markets in a number of countries. This report identifies the fiscal and regulatory barriers to implementation of energy efficiency measures and renewable energy technologies in Belize. Data and information were derived from stakeholder consultations conducted within the country. The major result of the assessment is that the transition of policies and plans into tangible action needs to be increased. In this regard, it is necessary to articulate sub-policies of the National Energy Policy to amend the Public Utilities Commission Act, to develop a grid interconnection policy, to establish minimum energy performance standards for buildings and equipment and to develop a public procurement policy. Finally, decisions on renewable energy and energy efficiency-related incentives from the Government formally requires decision-makers to solve what may be extremely complex optimization problems in order to obtain the lowest-cost provision of energy services to society, thereby weighing the cost of revenue losses with the benefits of fuel and infrastructure expansion savings. The establishment of a management system that is efficient, flexible, and transparent, which will facilitate the implementation of the strategic objectives and outputs in the time available, with the financial resources allocated is recommended. Support is required for additional institutional and capacity strengthening.
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Includes bibliography
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The economic impact of climate change on root crop, fisheries and vegetable production for Trinidad and Tobago under the A2 and B2 scenarios were modeled, relative to a baseline ―no climate change‖ case, where the mean temperature and rainfall for a base period of 1980 – 2000 was assumed for the years up to 2050. Production functions were used, using ARMA specifications to correct for serial autocorrelation. For the A2 scenarios, rainfall is expected to fall by approximately 10% relative to the baseline case in the 2020s, but is expected to rise thereafter, until by the 2040s rainfall rises slightly above the mean for the baseline case. For the B2 scenario, rainfall rose slightly above the mean for the baseline case in the current decade, but falls steadily thereafter to approximately 15% by the 2040s. Over the same period, temperature is expected to increase by 1.34C and 1.37C under A2 and B2 respectively. It is expected that any further increase in rainfall should have a deleterious effect on root crop production as a whole, since the above mentioned crops represent the majority of the root crops included in the study. Further expected increases in temperature will result in the ambient temperature being very close to the optimal end of the range for most of these crops. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative losses (2008$) for root crops is expected to be approximately 248.8 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 239.4 million USD under the B2 scenario. Relative to the 2005 catch for fish, there will be a decrease in catch potential of 10 - 20% by 2050 relative to 2005 catch potentials, other things remaining constant. By 2050 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, losses in real terms were estimated to be 160.2 million USD and 80.1 million USD respectively, at a 1% discount rate. For vegetables, the mean rainfall exceeds the optimal rainfall range for sweet peppers, hot peppers and melongene. However, while the optimal rainfall level for tomatoes is 3000mm/yr, other vegetables such as sweet peppers, hot peppers and ochroes have very low rainfall requirements (as low as 300 mm/yr). Therefore it is expected that any further decrease in rainfall should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production. It is expected that any further increase in temperature should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production, though model results indicated that as a group, an increase in temperature should have a positive impact on vegetable production. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative gains (2008$) for vegetables is expected to be approximately 54.9 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 49.1 million USD under the B2 scenario, given a 1% discount rate. For root crops, fisheries and vegetables combined, the cumulative loss under A2 is calculated as approximately 352.8 million USD and approximately 270.8 million USD under B2 by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively by 2050. Sea Level Rise (SLR) by 2050 is estimated to be 0.255 m under A2 and 0.215 m under B2. GIS estimation indicated that for a 0.255 m sea level rise, combined with a 0.5 m high tide, there would be no permanent inundation of agricultural land in Trinidad. The total inundation area is 1.18 km2. This occurs only in the Caroni Watershed, on the western coast of Trinidad, and the areas are outside the Caroni Swamp. Even with an additional rise of 0.5 m to simulate a high rainfall event, the estimated inundated area is 4.67 km2, but with no permanent inundation, though likely to be subject to flooding. Based on eleven (11) evaluation criteria, the top potential adaptation options were identified: 1. Use of water saving irrigation systems and water management systems e.g. drip irrigation; 2. Mainstream climate change issues into agricultural management; 3. Repair/maintain existing dams; 4. Alter crop calendar for short-term crops; 5. Adopt improved technologies for soil conservation; 6. Establish systems of food storage; 7. Promote water conservation – install on-farm water harvesting off roof tops; 8. Design and implement holistic water management plans for all competing uses; 9. Build on- farm water storage (ponds and tanks); 10. Agricultural drainage; and 11. Installation of greenhouses. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the Benefit-Cost Ratio are: (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Water Harvesting. However, the options with the highest net benefits are, (in order of priority): (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Use of drip irrigation. Based on the area burnt in Trinidad and Tobago between 2005 and 2009, the average annual loss due to fires is 1717.3 ha. At US$17.41 per carbon credit, this implies that for the total land lost to forest fires on average each year, the opportunity cost of carbon credit revenue is 74.3 million USD. If a teak reforestation programme is undertaken in Trinidad and Tobago, the net benefit of reforestation under a carbon credit programme would be 69 million USD cumulatively to 2050.