81 resultados para Sectoral horn

em Comissão Econômica para a América Latina e o Caribe (CEPAL)


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This paper examines the interdependence between expectations and growth by analysing Uruguayan manufacturing industry, divided for the purpose into four industry groupings differentiated by trade participation and production specialization. The study shows that there is a long-run relationship between industrialists' expectations and output growth in each grouping. In the most trade-oriented groupings the relationship is one of predetermination, showing how useful expectations are as a guide to sectoral growth. Expectations in the four industrial groupings are shown to follow a common long-run trend, identified with the one guiding the export grouping. Impulse-response simulations derived from a multisectoral vector autoregression (VAR) model confirm the important role of the industries most exposed to international competition in spreading shorter-term shocks.

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The aim of this article is to analyse the spatial distribution of the automotive industry in Brazil in terms of its various economic categories between 1995 and 2011, and to shed light on its sectoral linkages through inter-regional input-output matrices. By calculating the coefficient of localization (QLij) for that period, it was found that the third wave of investments, which began in the second half of the 1990s, actually caused a slight spatial deconcentration of this sector in the national economy. The coefficient of geographic association (CAik)calculated for different years revealed a slight reduction, while maintaining a high level of concentration, which suggests that vehicle production is closely integrated with other economic activities. This integration was corroborated particularly in terms of input purchases (backward linkages) in all of the analysed regions.

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