Weak expansions: a distinctive feature of the business cycle in Latin America and the Caribbean

Using two standard cycle methodologies (Classical and Deviation Cycle) and a comprehensive sample of 83 countries worldwide, including all developing regions, we show that the Latin American and Caribbean cycle exhibits two distinctive features. First, and most importantly, its expansion performance is shorter and for the most par less imtense than that of the rest of the regions considered, and in particular than that of East Asia and the Pacific, East Asia and the Pacific's expansions last five years longer than those of LAC, and its output gain is 50% greater than that of LAC. Second, LAC tends to exhibit contractions that are not significantly different in terms of duration and amplitude than t those of other regions. Both these features imply that the complete Latin American and Caribbean cycle has, overall, the shortest duration and smallest amplitude in relation to other regions. The specificities of the Latin American and Caribbean cycle are not confined to the short run. These are also reflected in variables such as productivity and investment, which are linked to long-run growth. East Asia and the Pacific's cumulative gain in labor productivity during the expansionary phase is twice that of LAC. Moreover, the evidence also shows that the effects of the contraction in public investment surpass those of the expansion leading to a declining trend over the entire cycle. In this sense we suggest that policy analysis needs to increase its focus on the expansionary phase of the cycle. Improving our knowledge of the differences in the expansionary dynamics of countries and regions, can further our understanding of the differences in their rates of growth and levels of development. We also suggest that while, the management of the cycle affects the short-run fluctuations of economic activity and hence volatility, it is not trend neutral. Hence, the effects of aggregate demand management policies may be more persistent over time and less transitory than currently thought.

The history of the social stratification of Latin America

Includes bibliography

Welcome to new Heads of the Gender Department

In this issue of Gender Dialogue, we wish to congratulate Ms. Ingrid Charles- Gumbs, St. Kitts and Nevis; Ms. Miriam Roache, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Ms. Lera Pascal, Saint Lucia, on the assumption of the positions of heads of the national machineries in those countries. One of the purposes of this newsletter is networking and we are therefore providing some information on these three new officers, in our ‘Profiles of the new Heads of the national machineries for women’. We have also invited some of the “older hands” to share some of their experiences as head of national machineries and to give some advice. We are grateful to have received contributions from Ms. Anita Zetina (Belize) and Ms. Sheila Roseau (Antigua and Barbuda). We note that Ms. Jeannie Ollivierre, a long serving coordinator of the Women’s Bureau in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, has now retired from the public service and we wish her all the very best. Ms. Bernadette Springer of Saint Lucia is now the Administrator of the Gros Islet Polyclinic and Ms. Rosalyn Hazelle has been promoted to Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Social Development in St. Kitts and Nevis.