17 resultados para Policy strategy

em Comissão Econômica para a América Latina e o Caribe (CEPAL)


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Latin America and the Caribbean experienced an unexpectedly vigorous economic recovery in 2010 after the output contraction of 2009. This upturn was reflected in the region’s employment and unemployment rates, which resumed the positive trends that had been broken by the crisis, and formal wages rose slightly. The strength of the recovery and labour-market performance varied markedly across subregions and countries, however. The first part of this joint ECLAC/ILO publication on the employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean looks at how labour markets have responded to the rapid economic upswing in 2010 and early 2011, highlighting both the significant advances achieved in the post-crisis period and the sharp differences evident across subregions and countries. As well as tapping into the improved external conditions which followed upon the Asianled global economic upturn, several Latin American countries were also able to contain the impacts of the crisis and underpin their own recovery with countercyclical policies, thanks to the leeway gained by their macroeconomic management during the run of growth from 2003 to 2008. These countries were in a position to implement expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, some of which channelled higher fiscal spending through labour-market policies or softened the impact of the crisis on employment and income, as discussed in previous ECLAC/ILO bulletins. Since the region is fairly new to the use of countercyclical policies, the second part of this document reviews the experiences arising from those policies and considers lessons for institutionalizing them. Economic growth in the Latin American and Caribbean region has historically been marked by the volatility of its economic cycles, with high-growth periods being succeeded by deep crises. Volatility has conspired against the use of production resources over extended periods and short growth horizons have impeded investment in capital and labour. In the recent international crisis, the deployment of countercyclical macroeconomic policy helped to reduce the depth and duration of the impact and to leverage a more rapid recovery. It is therefore worth looking at the fundamentals of a long-term countercyclical macroeconomic policy which would provide the tools needed to deal with future crises and pave the way for economic growth that may be sustained over time. A special factor during this crisis was that a greater effort was made to support employment and income. Several of the labour-market policy measures taken acted as vehicles for conveying increased fiscal spending to individuals, reflecting greater consideration for equality concerns. Indeed, these measures were aimed not only at stabilizing andstrengthening domestic demand per se, but also at preventing the crisis from hitting lowest-income households the hardest, as had occurred in previous episodes. And —again unlike the pattern seen in previous episodes— inflation actually fell during the crisis as the high food and fuel prices seen in the run-up to it eased as a result of both existing macroeconomic policies and global conditions. This averted the surge in inequality so often seen in previous crises. Two caveats must be added, however. First, not all the countries were in a position to deploy strong countercyclical policies. Many simply lacked the fiscal space to do so. Second, some countries took this sort of measure more as an ad hoc response to the crisis than as part of a clearly established countercyclical policy strategy. The challenge, then, is to institutionalize a countercyclical approach throughout the economic cycle. Taking up this challenge is part of making economic growth more sustainable. This year —2011— was ushered in by rapid economic growth and substantial improvements in labour indicators. With the region’s GDP projected to grow well over 4% this year, ECLAC and ILO estimate that the regional unemployment rate will fall substantially again, from 7.3% in 2010 to between 6.7% and 7.0% in 2011.

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Introduction The social agenda is long-term in nature, in the sense that poverty alleviation along with a better distribution of income, wealth and opportunities are long-term goals. A sound macroeconomic policy, on the other hand, has to do largely with the consistent management of short-term policy instruments pursuing a sustainable and predictable pace for aggregate economic variables and major prices (wages, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates). In spite of the different arena and rationale in which they play, there are strong links between the two. First and most obvious, macroeconomic adjustment and structural reform are more likely to be sustainable when they are equitable. Second, social intervention —i.e., policies, programmes and reforms aimed at improving social performance in the long run—, needs stable funding which is not always available in view of macroeconomic constraints. Third, macroeconomic instability —especially episodes of recession or hyperinflation— increases poverty and inequality, while restoring macroeconomic equilibrium does not restore previous social balances. Finally, there is no unique macroeconomic policy mix to tackle a given situation, and the policy options may not be neutral from a social standpoint. Monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies, together with structural reform, have major consequences for the social wellbeing of societies, not only in terms of protection against shocks and crises but also in terms of equity. Many, if not all, of the necessary social policies are of a domestic nature. This report thus concentrates on domestic strategies aimed at maximizing the linkages between consistent macroeconomic policies and social progress. Pursuing them, however, depends to a considerable extent on the international enabling environment in which the global financial system, the unsettled debt crisis and increasing ODA flows play a significant role. Countries operate in a world economy where market players everywhere immediately scrutinize domestic monetary, financial or fiscal policy decisions and the performance of exchange rate regimes of individual countries. Under these conditions, the room for manoeuvre of policymakers has become considerably constrained. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly complex to incorporate the social dimensions into such policy decisions, to the extent that external analysts consider that authorities are sacrificing sound macroeconomic policies. The main message of the report is that the expediency of short-term economic efficiency as embedded in much of the advice on macroeconomic stability needs to be tempered by long-term development objectives. The report starts with a short historical background which describes the ascendancy of macroeconomic policies over social development policies (chapter I). It continues with an evaluation of the relation between macroeconomic consistency and social effort (chapter II), and the importance of sustainable and stable growth for social progress (chapter III). The report then turns to the need for an equity-enhancing growth strategy (chapter IV) and an analysis of the priorities of social policies in an integrated approach to growth (chapter V). The final chapter adds some final institutional remarks.

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