Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys

We examine the problem of combining Mexican inflation predictions or projections provided by a biweekly survey of professional forecasters. Consumer price inflation in Mexico is measured twice a month. We consider several combining methods and advocate the use of dimension reduction techniques whose performance is compared with different benchmark methods, including the simplest average prediction. Missing values in the database are imputed by two different databased methods. The results obtained are basically robust to the choice of the imputation method. A preliminary analysis of the data was based on its panel data structure and showed the potential usefulness of using dimension reduction techniques to combine the experts' predictions. The main findings are: the first monthly predictions are best combined by way of the first principal component of the predictions available; the best second monthly prediction is obtained by calculating the median prediction and is more accurate than the first one.

Latin America: the missing financial crisis

Includes bibliography

Care: the missing link in economic analysis?

Includes bibliography

The missing future: Colombian youth

Includes bibliography

A computer model of family building based on expected values; abstract of an article by Potter and Sakoda

Includes bibliography

Public transport fares in Latin American cities: systems, values and problems

Although public transport has undergone a series of changes over the last few decades, fares are still strongly affecting the budget of low-income families. This is despite the fact that, with very few exceptions, public transport fares are one of the few prices still fixed by the government authorities. The introduction of integrated networks made up of trunk lines and feeder services is not guaranteed to reduce the cost for users. It would be possible to reduce fares if free transport provided by the authorities to various groups of citizens were financed by the authorities themselves, and not by other groups of passengers.

Types of discrepancy in Millennium Development Goal indicator values and measures for statistical reconciliation: Overall framework and implementation in selected thematic areas and indicators

Includes bibliography.