Estrategia para la conservación de los recursos marinos vivientes y los procesos asociados en la región del Caribe = Strategy for the conservation of living marine resources and processes in the Caribbean region

Incluye Bibliografía

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in Saint Kitts And Nevis

Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty alleviation, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of St. Kitts and Nevis (SKN). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations for possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the British Virgin Islands

Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty reduction, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of the British Virgin Islands (BVI). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations of possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation. A multi-pronged approach is employed in valuing the marine and coastal sector. Direct use and indirect use values are estimated. The amount of economic activity an ecosystem service generates in the local economy underpins estimation of direct use values. Tourism and fisheries are valued using the framework developed by the World Resources Institute. Biodiversity is valued in terms of the ecological functions it provides, such as climate regulation, shoreline protection, water supply erosion control and sediment retention, and biological control, among others. Estimates of future losses to the coastal zone from climate change are determined by considering: (1) the effect of sea level rise on coastal lands; and (2) the effect of a rise in sea surface temperature (SST) on coastal waters. Discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4% are employed to analyse all loss estimates in present value terms. The overall value for the coastal and marine sector is USD $1,606 million (mn). This is almost 2% larger than BVI’s 2008 GDP. Tourism and recreation comprise almost two-thirds of the value of the sector. By 2100, the effects of climate change on coastal lands are projected to be $3,988.6 mn, and $2,832.9 mn under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. In present value terms, if A2 occurs, losses range from $108.1-$1,596.8 mn and if B2 occurs, losses range from $74.1-$1,094.1 mn, depending on the discount rate used. Estimated costs of a rise in SST in 2050 indicate that they vary between $1,178.0 and $1,884.8 mn. Assuming a discount rate of 4%, losses range from $226.6 mn for the B2 scenario to $363.0 mn for the A2 scenario. If a discount rate of 1% is assumed, estimated losses are much greater, ranging from $775.6-$1,241.0 mn. Factoring in projected climate change impacts, the net value of the coastal and marine sector suggests that the costs of climate change significantly reduce the value of the sector, particularly under the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios for discount rates of 1% and 2%. In contrast, the sector has a large, positive, though declining trajectory, for all years when a 4% discount rate is employed. Since the BVI emits minimal greenhouse gases, but will be greatly affected by climate change, the report focuses on adaptation as opposed to mitigation strategies. The options shortlisted are: (1) enhancing monitoring of all coastal waters to provide early warning alerts of bleaching and other marine events; (2) introducing artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) introducing alternative tourist attractions; (4) providing retraining for displaced tourism workers; and (5) revising policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities. All adaptation options considered are quite justifiable in national terms; each had benefit-cost ratios greater than 1.

A regional approach to the consultations held by the Secretary-General of the United Nations on part XI of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

Includes bibliography

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in the Turks and Caicos Islands

The best description of water resources for Grand Turk was offered by Pérez Monteagudo (2000) who suggested that rain water was insufficient to ensure a regular water supply although water catchment was being practised and water catchment possibilities had been analysed. Limestone islands, mostly flat and low lying, have few possibilities for large scale surface storage, and groundwater lenses exist in very delicate equilibrium with saline seawater, and are highly likely to collapse due to sea level rise, improper extraction, drought, tidal waves or other extreme event. A study on the impact of climate change on water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands is a challenging task, due to the fact that the territory of the Islands covers different environmental resources and conditions, and accurate data are lacking. The present report is based on collected data wherever possible, including grey data from several sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Cuban meteorological service data sets. Other data were also used, including the author’s own estimates and modelling results. Although challenging, this was perhaps the best approach towards analysing the situation. Furthermore, IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios were used in the present study in an effort to reduce uncertainty. The main conclusion from the scenario approach is that the trend observed in precipitation during the period 1961 - 1990 is decreasing. Similar behaviour was observed in the Caribbean region. This trend is associated with meteorological causes, particularly with the influence of the North Atlantic Anticyclone. The annual decrease in precipitation is estimated to be between 30-40% with uncertain impacts on marine resources. After an assessment of fresh water resources in Turks and Caicos Islands, the next step was to estimate residential water demand based on a high fertility rate scenario for the Islands (one selected from four scenarios and compared to countries having similar characteristics). The selected scenario presents higher projections on consumption growth, enabling better preparation for growing water demand. Water demand by tourists (stopover and excursionists, mainly cruise passengers) was also obtained, based on international daily consumption estimates. Tourism demand forecasts for Turks and Caicos Islands encompass the forty years between 2011 and 2050 and were obtained by means of an Artificial Neural Networks approach. for the A2 and B2 scenarios, resulting in the relation BAU>B2>A2 in terms of tourist arrivals and water demand levels from tourism. Adaptation options and policies were analysed. Resolving the issue of the best technology to be used for Turks and Caicos Islands is not directly related to climate change. Total estimated water storage capacity is about 1, 270, 800 m3/ year with 80% capacity load for three plants. However, almost 11 desalination plants have been detected on Turks and Caicos Islands. Without more data, it is not possible to estimate long term investment to match possible water demand and more complex adaptation options. One climate change adaptation option would be the construction of elevated (30 metres or higher) storm resistant water reservoirs. The unit cost of the storage capacity is the sum of capital costs and operational and maintenance costs. Electricity costs to pump water are optional as water should, and could, be stored for several months. The costs arising for water storage are in the range of US$ 0.22 cents/m3 without electricity costs. Pérez Monteagudo (2000) estimated water prices at around US$ 2.64/m3 in stand points, US$ 7.92 /m3 for government offices, and US$ 13.2 /m3for cistern truck vehicles. These data need to be updated. As Turks and Caicos Islands continues to depend on tourism and Reverse Osmosis (RO) for obtaining fresh water, an unavoidable condition to maintaining and increasing gross domestic product(GDP) and population welfare, dependence on fossil fuels and vulnerability to increasingly volatile prices will constitute an important restriction. In this sense, mitigation supposes a synergy with adaptation. Energy demand and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) were also estimated using an emissions factor of 2. 6 tCO2/ tonne of oil equivalent (toe). Assuming a population of 33,000 inhabitants, primary energy demand was estimated for Turks and Caicos Islands at 110,000 toe with electricity demand of around 110 GWh. The business as usual (BAU), as well as the mitigation scenarios were estimated. The BAU scenario suggests that energy use should be supported by imported fossil fuels with important improvements in energy efficiency. The mitigation scenario explores the use of photovoltaic and concentrating solar power, and wind energy. As this is a preliminary study, the local potential and locations need to be identified to provide more relevant estimates. Macroeconomic assumptions are the same for both scenarios. By 2050, Turks and Caicos Islands could demand 60 m toe less than for the BAU scenario.

The water resources of Latin America and the Caribbean: inland and marine fishing and the water resource

Includes bibliography

Policy Brief: an assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the Caribbean

Caribbean policymakers are faced with special challenges from climate change and these are related to the uncertainties inherent in future climate projections and the complex linkages among climate change, physical and biological systems and socioeconomic sectors. The impacts of climate change threaten development in the Caribbean and may well erode previous gains in development as evidenced by the increased incidence of climate migrants internationally. This brief which is based on a recent study conducted by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (LC/CAR/L.395)1 provides a synthesis of the assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the Caribbean which were undertaken. It provides Caribbean policymakers with cutting-edge information on the region’s vulnerability and encourages the development of adaptation strategies informed by both local experience and expert knowledge. It proceeds from an acknowledgement that the unique combination of natural resources, ecosystems, economic activities, and human population settlements of the Caribbean will not be immune to the impacts of climate change, and local communities, countries and the subregion as a whole need to plan for, and adapt to, these effects. Climate and extreme weather hazards related to the coastal and marine sector encompass the distinct but related factors of sea level rise, increasing coastal water temperatures, tropical storms and hurricanes. Potential vulnerabilities for coastal zones include increased shoreline erosion leading to alteration of the coastline, loss of coastal wetlands, and changes in the abundance and diversity of fish and other marine populations. The study examines four key themes in the analysis: climate, vulnerability, economic and social costs associated with climate change impacts, and adaptive measures.