Escenarios hidrológicos de caudales medios del río Paraná y Uruguay

Incluye Bibliografía

Aplicaciones del metodo propuesto por Samuel Preston para medir la cabalidad de censos y registros de muerte (Preston II); resumen del estudio

Este estudio pretende medir la cabalidad de los censos y registros de muertes, utilizando el metodo Preston II con informacion referente a Chile, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Panama y Peru. Se presenta, en lineas generales, el desarrollo teorico del metodo y una forma de determinacion de los valores B1 (cobertura de los censos) y B2 (cobertura del segundo censo y los registros). Se incluyen tabulaciones que contienen los datos utilizados en la aplicacion y los resultados obtenidos para cada pais

La economía del cambio climático en Centroamérica: impactos potenciales en los patrones intraanuales y espaciales del clima: serie técnica 2012

Incluye Bibliografía

La economía del cambio climático en Centroamérica: impactos potenciales en los ecosistemas: serie técnica 2012

Incluye Bibliografía

Impactos potenciales del cambio climático sobre los granos básicos en Centroamérica

La producción de maíz, frijol y arroz es vital para la seguridad alimentaria y nutricional de la población centroamericana. La mayor parte de su producción, especialmente la de maíz y frijol, está en manos de pequeños productores, la mayoría de los cuales viven en condiciones de pobreza con acceso limitado a servicios sociales y económicos. No obstante, salvaguardan un importante acervo de agrobiodiversidad y conservan prácticas de producción relativamente sostenible y adecuada a las condiciones locales. Estas características los hacen actores clave en la respuesta al cambio climático, pero al mismo tiempo son muy vulnerables a su impacto. Este documento se realizo conjuntamente con el Grupo Técnico de Cambio Climático y Gestión Integral de Riesgo y la Secretaria Ejecutiva del Consejo Agropecuario Centroamericano, instancia de los Ministros de Agricultura de Centroamérica y la República Dominicana en el marco del Sistema de Integración Centroamericana (SICA). Utilizando el método de funciones de producción, se estima el efecto de la temperatura y la precipitación sobre los rendimientos de granos básicos en 95 unidades geográficas subnacionales en la década de 2000. Con esta misma función, se estiman los impactos potenciales del cambio climático durante el presente siglo, utilizando dos escenarios del Panel Intergubernamental de Cambio Climático (IPCC), denominados B2 (trayectoria de alza de emisiones menor) y A2 (emisiones crecientes e inacción global). Con el escenario A2 para fines del siglo, las reducciones regionales de rendimientos estimados serían: 35%, 43% y 50% para el maíz, frijol y arroz, respectivamente, en comparación con 17%, 19% y 30% con el escenario B2; por lo cual es importante seguir insistiendo en un esfuerzo global para reducir las emisiones. Al mismo tiempo, los resultados sugieren que habrá condiciones diferentes y medidas apropiadas de adaptación dependiendo del departamento e inclusive dentro de cada uno, requiriendo acciones enfocadas a nivel local. Por lo tanto, es urgente impulsar estrategias adaptativas incluyentes y sustentables para el sector de granos básicos que combinen la reducción de la pobreza y de la vulnerabilidad con las de adaptación al cambio climático y la transición a economías más sostenibles y bajas en carbono. En este sentido, los esfuerzos de adaptación, de integración de las medidas de adaptación en los planes agrícolas de mitigación, y de programas de mitigación basados en adaptación que la región está implementando son muy importantes.

Capital flows to Latin America: third quarter 2002

Includes bibliography

La economía del cambio climático en el Ecuador, 2012

Incluye Bibliografía

Evaluación de los impactos del cambio climático sobre el ecosistema natural y la biodiversidad: Esteros del Iberá (Argentina)

Incluye bibliografía.

Impactos potenciales del cambio climático sobre el café en Centroamérica

En este documento, producto del programa de trabajo conjunto de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) y los Ministerios de Agricultura de los países miembros del Consejo Agropecuario Centroamericano del Sistema de Integración Centroamericana (SICA), coordinado con su Secretaría Ejecutiva (SECAC) y su Grupo Técnico de Cambio Climático y Gestión Integral de Riesgo, se estudia la relación de la temperatura y la precipitación y otras variables con los rendimientos en 95 unidades geográficas subnacionales productores del café en los siete países de Centroamérica en la década del 2000. Valiéndose del método de funciones de producción, se estiman los impactos potenciales del cambio climático sobre estos rendimientos durante el presente siglo, utilizando dos escenarios del Panel Intergubernamental de Cambio Climático (IPCC), una con una trayectoria de alza de emisiones menor (B2) y otra de emisiones crecientes e inacción global cercana a la trayectoria endencial actual (A2).

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector in the Caribbean

The main objective of the present study was to determine the value of impacts due to climate change on the agricultural sector in the Caribbean under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 and B2 scenarios. More specifically, the study aimed to evaluate the direction and magnitude of the potential impacts of climate change on aggregate agricultural output and other key agricultural indicators. Further, the study forecast changes in income for agricultural output for key subsectors under the A2 and B2 scenarios, from 2011 to 2050. It analysed the benefits and costs of the key adaptation strategies identified by Caribbean Governments.

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

There are significant, fundamental changes taking place in global air and sea surface temperatures and sea levels. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change noted that many of the warmest years on the instrumental record of global surface temperatures have occurred within the last twelve years, i.e. 1995-2006 (IPCC, 2007). The Caribbean tourism product is particularly vulnerable to climate change. On the demand side, mitigation measures in other countries – for example, measures to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels – could have implications for airfares and cruise prices and, therefore, for the demand for travel, particularly to long-haul destinations such as the Caribbean (Clayton, 2009). On the supply side, sea level rise will cause beaches to disappear and damage coastal resorts. Changes in the frequency and severity of hurricanes are likely to magnify that damage. Other indirect impacts on the tourism product include rising insurance premiums and competition for water resources (Cashman, Cumberbatch, & Moore, 2012). The present report has used information on historic and future Caribbean climate data to calculate that the Caribbean tourism climatic index (TCI) ranges from −20 (impossible) to +100 (ideal). In addition to projections for the Caribbean, the report has produced TCI projections for the New York City area (specifically, Central Park), which have been used as comparators for Caribbean country projections. The conditions in the source market provide a benchmark against which visitors may judge their experience in the tourism destination. The historical and forecasted TCIs for the Caribbean under both the A2 and B2 climate scenarios of the IPCC suggest that climatic conditions in the Caribbean are expected to deteriorate, and are likely to become less conducive to tourism. More specifically, the greatest decline in the TCI is likely to occur during the northern hemisphere summer months from May to September. At the same time, the scenario analysis indicates that home conditions during the traditional tourist season (December – April) are likely to improve, which could make it more attractive for visitors from these markets to consider ‘staycations’ as an alternative to overseas trips.

The impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

The main aim of this study is to estimate the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A typical tourism demand function, with tourist arrivals as the dependent variable, is used in the analysis. To establish the baseline, the period under analysis is 1989-2007 and the independent variables are destination country GDP per capita and consumer price index, source country GDP, oil prices to proxy transportation costs between source and destination countries. At this preliminary stage the climate variables are used separately to augment the tourism demand function to establish a relationship, if any, among the variables. Various econometric models (single OLS models for each country, pooled regression, GMM estimation and random effects panel models) were considered in an attempt to find the best way to model the data. The best fit for the data (1989-2007) is the random effects panel data model augmented by both climate variables, i.e. temperature and precipitation. Projections of all variables in the model for the 2008-2100 period were done using forecasting techniques. Projections for the climate variables were undertaken by INSMET. The cost of climate change to the tourism sector was estimated under three scenarios: A2, B2 and BAU (the mid-point of the A2 and B2 scenarios). The estimated costs to tourism for the Caribbean subregion under the three scenarios are all very high and ranges from US$43.9 billion under the B2 scenario to US$46.3 billion under the BAU scenario.

The impact of climate change on the macroeconomy in the Caribbean

In this study, an attempt is made to assess the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A methodological approach proposed by Dell et al. (2008) is used in preference to the traditional Integrated Assessment Models. The evolution of climate variables and of the macroeconomy of each of the nine countries over the period 1970 to 2006 is analyzed and preliminary evidence of a relationship between the macroeconomy and climate change is examined. The preliminary investigation uses correlation, Granger causality and simple regression methods. The preliminary evidence suggests that there is some relationship but that the direction of causation between the macroeconomy and the climate variables is indeterminate. The main analysis involves the use of a panel data (random effects) model which fits the historical data (1971-2007) very well. Projections of economic growth from 2008 to 2099 are done on the basis of four climate scenarios: the International Panel on Climate Change A2, B2, a hybrid A2B2 (the mid-point of A2 and B2), and a ‘baseline’ or ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, which assumes that the growth rate in the period 2008-2099 is the same as the average growth rate over the period 1971-2007. The best average growth rate is under the B2 scenario, followed by the hybrid A2B2 and A2 scenarios, in that order. Although negative growth rates eventually dominate, they are largely positive for a long time. The projections all display long-run secular decline in growth rates notwithstanding short-run upward trends, including some very sharp ones, moving eventually from declining positive rates to negative ones. The costs associated with the various scenarios are all quite high, rising to as high as a present value (2007 base year) of US$14 billion in 2099 (constant 1990 prices) for the B2 scenario and US$21 billion for the BAU scenario. These costs were calculated on the basis of very conservative estimates of the cost of environmental degradation. Mitigation and adaptation costs are likely to be quite high though a small fraction of projected total investment costs.

The impact of climate change on the water sector in the Caribbean

This study econometrically analyses the projected impact of climate change on the water sector of nine Caribbean countries to 2100: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Montserrat, Jamaica, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia, and Trinidad and Tobago. Overall, all countries, with the exception of Trinidad and Tobago, are expected to suffer aggregate losses as result of climate change in the early periods ca. 2020 under one or more scenarios. Over time, some countries experience declining negative impacts, as in the case of Guyana under the B2 scenario. Some countries, such as the Dominican Republic, is projected to suffer increasing losses under the B2 scenario and, for others, the impacts do not follow a defined trend. The A2 scenario offers the best outcome for all countries, except Jamaica (where BAU is most desirable), Montserrat (which performs most poorly under the A2 scenario), and the Netherlands Antilles, which does best under the B2 case. Overall, relative to 2006, the total demand for water in the Caribbean is expected to fall by 2030 by 11.3% to approximately 12,967 million cubic meters. This is due to the expected fall in agricultural water demand by approximately 36% in that period. However, by 2050, total water demand for the Caribbean will again exceed the 2006 level by approximately 4% to 14,896.33 106 m3. By 2100, water demand will increase almost fivefold to approximately 69,233.69 106 m3. Climate change is expected to affect all countries in the Caribbean. In some cases, there will be positive impacts that may continue to increase over time and, in other cases, the impact will be negative and worsen over time. Overall, the agricultural sector is expected to suffer the worst losses over any scenario, whilst growth in the industrial sectors is expected to be significant and contribute the most to increasing water demand over time.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Energy and Health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago

This report analyses the agriculture, energy, and health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Trinidad and Tobago. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on root crops, green vegetables and fisheries. For these sectors combined, the cumulative loss under the A2 scenario is calculated as approximately B$2.24 and approximately B$1.72 under the B2 scenario by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Given the potential for significant damage to the agriculture sector a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 10 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. All of the adaptation strategies showed positive benefits. The analysis indicate that the options with the highest net benefits are: (1) Building on-farm water storage, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Using drip irrigation. Other attractive options include water harvesting. The policy decisions by governments should include these assessments, the omitted intangible benefits, as well as the provision of other social goals such as employment. The analysis of the energy sector has shown that the economic impact of climate change during 2011-2050 is similar under the A2 (US$142.88 million) and B2 (US$134.83 million) scenarios with A2 scenario having a slightly higher cost (0.737% of 2009 GDP) than the B2 scenario (0.695% of 2009 GDP) for the period. On the supply side, analyses indicate that Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector will be susceptible to the climate change policies of major energy-importing countries (the United States of America and China), and especially to their renewable energy strategies. Implementation of foreign oil substitution policy by the United States of America will result in a decline in Trinidad and Tobago’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export (equivalent to 2.2% reduction in 2009 GDP) unless an alternative market is secured for the lost United States of America market. China, with its rapid economic growth and the highest population in the world, offers a potential replacement market for Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG export. In this context the A2 scenario will offer the best option for Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector. The cost-benefit analysis undertaken on selected adaptation strategies reveal that the benefit-cost ratio of replacing electric water heaters with solar water heaters is the most cost-effective. It was also found that the introduction of Compact Fluorescent Light (CFL) and Variable Refrigerant Volume (VRV) air conditioners surpasses the projected cost of increased electricity consumption due to climate change, and provides an economic rationale for the adoption of these adaptation options even in a situation of increased electricity consumption occasioned by climate change. Finally, the conversion of motor fleets to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is a cost-effective adaptation option for the transport sector, although it has a high initial cost of implementation and the highest per capita among the four adaptation options evaluated. To investigate the effect of climate change on the health sector dengue fever, leptospirosis, food borne illnesses, and gastroenteritis were examined. The total number of new dengue cases for the period 2008 to 2050 was 204,786 for BAU, 153,725 for A2 and 131,890 for the B2 scenario. With regard to the results for leptospirosis, A2 and B2 seem to be following a similar path with total number of new cases in the A2 scenario being 9,727 and 9,218 cases under the B2 scenario. Although incidence levels in the BAU scenario coincided with those of A2 and B2 prior to 2020, they are somewhat lower post 2020. A similar picture emerges for the scenarios as they relate to food-borne illnesses and to gastroenteritis. Specifically for food-borne illnesses, the BAU scenario recorded 27,537 cases, the A2 recorded 28,568 cases and the B2 recorded 28,679 cases. The focus on the selected sources of morbidity in the health sector has highlighted the fact that the vulnerability of the country’s health sector to climate change does not depend solely on exogenously derived impacts, but also on the behaviour and practices among the population. It is clear that the vulnerability which became evident in the analysis of the impacts on dengue fever, leptospirosis and food-borne illnesses is not restricted solely to climate or other external factors. The most important adaptation strategy being recommended targets lifestyle, behaviour and attitude changes. The population needs to be encouraged to alter their behaviours and practices so as to minimise their exposure to harmful outcomes as it relates to the incidence of these diseases.