Economic growth in Latin America in the late 20th century: evidence and interpretation

Includes bibliography

Development cycles, political regimes and international migration: Argentina in the 20th century

Includes bibliography

Changes in world economic conditions: implications for Latin America

Conference Room Paper, No 17

Current conditions and outlook: Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2001

Includes bibliography

Current conditions and outlook: Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2002

Foreword This publication provides an assessment of the region's economic performance and economic trends during the first half of 2002 and of its prospects for the remainder of the year within the context of the previous year's performance. An analysis is presented of the main aspects of the regional economy -its external sector, levels of economic activity, inflation, employment, saving and investment, and macroeconomic policy-, accompanied by a statistical appendix containing 13 tables with data series through 2001. The document, which is being published simultaneously in Spanish and English, corresponds to the first chapter of the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean, 2001-2002, issued in Spanish in September and in English later in the year. Wide distribution of this document is intended to serve the purpose previously performed by the Economic Panorama of Latin America, a publication that was issued in September of each year between 1985 and 1996. See also an advance version of the survey of economic developments in English-speaking countries of the Caribbean in 2001 and their prospects in 2002 which will be contained in final, revised form in the Economic Survey 2001-2002.

Current conditions and outlook: Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2002-2003

Includes bibliography

The economic development of Latin America in the twentieth century

Includes bibliography

Political violence and economic development in Latin America: issues and evidence

Includes bibliography

Long run economic development in Latin America in a comparative perspective: proximate and ultimate causes

Includes bibliography

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009, there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. Besides temperature, there is also the threat of wind speeds. Since the early 20th century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Montserrat, the estimated damage from four windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$260 million or almost five times 2009 gross domestic product (GDP). Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. The report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations as well as those under two likely climate scenarios: A2 and B2. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will likely decline and therefore negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Including this tourism climatic index in a tourism demand model suggests that this would translate into losses of around 145% of GDP. As it relates to coral reefs, the value of the damage due to the loss of coral reefs was estimated at 7.6 times GDP, while the damage due to land loss for the tourism industry was 45% of GDP. The total cost of climate change for the tourism industry was therefore projected to be 9.6 times 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry, a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these, a short-list of 9 potential options was selected using 10 evaluation criteria. These included: (a) Increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Construction of water storage tanks; (c) Irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water; (d) Enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (e) Deployment of artificial reefs and fish-aggregating devices; (f) Developing national evacuation and rescue plans; (g) Introduction of alternative attractions; (h) Providing re-training for displaced tourism workers, and; (i) Revised policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities Using cost-benefit analysis, three options were put forward as being financially viable and ready for immediate implementation: (a) Increase recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Enhance reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and; (c) Deploy artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits: an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities.

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 1999-2000

Includes bibliography

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 1998-1999

Includes bibliography

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2006-2007

Includes bibliography

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2008-2009: Policies for creating quality jobs

Includes bibliography

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2009-2010: The distributive impact of public policies

Includes bibliography