Fostering economic policy coordination in Latin America: the REDIMA approach to escaping the prisoner's dilemma

Includes bibliography

Some considerations on the possible effects of the failure of the United States Congress to renew the ATPDEA

Includes bibliography

From hard-peg to hard landing?: recent experiences of Argentina and Ecuador

Includes bibliography

Renewable energy sources in Latin America and the Caribbean: situation and policy proposals

Includes bibliography

Border crossings in Mercosur countries: obstacles and their cost

In a recent ECLAC study of inefficiency at border crossings in Mercosur countries, it was found that the cost of delays in traffic between Argentina and Brazil amounted to a minimum of US$ 170 per truck for the most problematic border crossing. This is over 10 % higher than the typical price of freight between Buenos Aires and Sao Paulo or Porto Alegre. It was estimated that the extra-cost on this border crossing may amount to a maximum of US$ 273 per truck. These problems, which have to do more with organization than with infrastructure, cause serious losses to the sectors involved in international transport, and especially to end users of intermediate or consumer goods transported.This edition of the Bulletin includes a summary of a study entitled: Identificación de obstáculos al transporte terrestre internacional de cargas en el Mercosur: los casos de Argentina, Brasil y Uruguay.

The impact of climate change on the macroeconomy in the Caribbean

In this study, an attempt is made to assess the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A methodological approach proposed by Dell et al. (2008) is used in preference to the traditional Integrated Assessment Models. The evolution of climate variables and of the macroeconomy of each of the nine countries over the period 1970 to 2006 is analyzed and preliminary evidence of a relationship between the macroeconomy and climate change is examined. The preliminary investigation uses correlation, Granger causality and simple regression methods. The preliminary evidence suggests that there is some relationship but that the direction of causation between the macroeconomy and the climate variables is indeterminate. The main analysis involves the use of a panel data (random effects) model which fits the historical data (1971-2007) very well. Projections of economic growth from 2008 to 2099 are done on the basis of four climate scenarios: the International Panel on Climate Change A2, B2, a hybrid A2B2 (the mid-point of A2 and B2), and a ‘baseline’ or ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, which assumes that the growth rate in the period 2008-2099 is the same as the average growth rate over the period 1971-2007. The best average growth rate is under the B2 scenario, followed by the hybrid A2B2 and A2 scenarios, in that order. Although negative growth rates eventually dominate, they are largely positive for a long time. The projections all display long-run secular decline in growth rates notwithstanding short-run upward trends, including some very sharp ones, moving eventually from declining positive rates to negative ones. The costs associated with the various scenarios are all quite high, rising to as high as a present value (2007 base year) of US$14 billion in 2099 (constant 1990 prices) for the B2 scenario and US$21 billion for the BAU scenario. These costs were calculated on the basis of very conservative estimates of the cost of environmental degradation. Mitigation and adaptation costs are likely to be quite high though a small fraction of projected total investment costs.