Development of technological capabilities in an extremely volatile economy. The industrial sector in Argentina

Includes bibliography

Development cycles, political regimes and international migration: Argentina in the 20th century

Includes bibliography

Capital movements and external financing

Includes bibliography

Raúl Prebisch and the development agenda at the dawn of the twenty-first century

Includes bibliography

Income distribution in Argentina, 1974-2000

Includes bibliography

Social and economic problems in Cuba during the crisis and subsequent recovery

Includes bibliography

Información para la gestión de riesgo de desastres: Estudio de caso de cinco países: Chile

Incluye Bibliografía

The Netherlands Antilles: trade and integration with CARICOM

Introduction The Netherlands Antilles is an autonomous entity within the Kingdom of the Netherlands and comprises a federation of five Caribbean islands: Bonaire and Curacao (the Leeward islands) which comprise 80 per cent of the population of 211,000 and Saba, St. Eustatius and the southern part of St. Maarten (the Windward islands). Like the other countries in the Kingdom, it enjoys full autonomy in internal matters as, for example, education, public health, justice and customs. It has a per capita income of about US$ 12,000. The Leeward Islands and the Windward Islands account for about 75 per cent (Curacao (70 per cent) and Bonaire (5 per cent)) and 25 percent respectively of the economy of the Netherlands Antilles. The Netherlands Antilles has its own currency, the Netherlands guilder, which is pegged to the United States dollar at a fixed rate since 1971. The economy has some unique features that stem from its close relations with the Netherlands, its undiversified nature and heavy dependence on tourism, offshore finance, oil refining and shipping, the high share of trade (exports of goods and services of about 75 per cent of GDP), its geographical characteristics, its common border with the French Republic on St. Maarten, its duty-free access for imports from Aruba, its de facto free trade zone (FTZ), partial dollarization, especially for the Windward Islands, and its highly regulated labor market (1). Adverse economic shocks in the last two decades affected particularly the offshore financial sector and the oil refinery and, to a lesser extent, tourism. The repeal of withholding taxes in the United States in the 1980s indirectly caused the collapse of a number of highly profitable offshore financial activities in Curacao, leading to significant drops in government revenue and contributions to foreign exchange earnings. The withdrawal of Shell from Curacao in 1986 and the (temporary) closure of the oil refinery which had been a mainstay of the Curacao economy for almost three quarters of a century was the second major shock. It was subsequently leased to the Venezuelan State Company, Petroleos de Venezuela Sociedad Anonima (PDVSA), which resumed operations and preserved employment. In the 1990s, the Windward Islands were bit by several devastating hurricanes, which destroyed much of the economic infrastructure on the islands, including about half of the number of available hotel rooms in St Maarten. Further negative shocks were related to the discontinuation of certain trade privileges on European markets for Overseas Countries and Territories (OCTs), the withdrawal by the Netherlands of certain tax privileges for Dutch pensioners residing in the Netherlands Antilles and disruptions in the availability of Solidarity Fund resources for the smaller islands. National income has been on the decline since 1997. GDP declined by about 6 per cent between 1997 and 1999. Underlying fiscal imbalances and structural weaknesses have also impacted negatively on the economy. In recent years, with recession high unemployment and migration have been experienced (2). The Netherlands Antilles has been able to survive thanks to additional aid from the Netherlands, large-scale spontaneous emigration (mostly to the Netherlands), some drop in international reserves, an increase in domestic debt and arrears and reduced outlays for the maintenance of public assets. From 1986 onwards, successive efforts at restoring macroeconomic balance, particularly with regard to public finance, were made, but were unsuccessful. Adjustment was also attempted in 1996 and 1997, but failed to meet the desired targets. In 1999, the government launched a new National Recovery Plan" (NRP). The NRP contains important medium-term structural adjustment measures aimed at restoring macroeconomic balance and conditions for revitalizing the economy. The NRP subsequently served as an important input into a comprehensive adjustment plan drawn up with the assistance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and reflected in the government's Memorandum of Economic Policies dated 15 September 2000. Beyond restoring macroeconomic balance and reforming the economic incentive framework, the government aims at establishing a Comprehensive Development Framework (CDF) for the formulation and implementation of a sustainable long-term growth strategy. It is against the above background that this study is undertaken. Its main objective is to assess the integration options facing the Netherlands Antilles (3) vis-a-vis the Caribbean Community (CARICOM). A secondary objective is to examine the above taking into account, inter alia, the level of trade between the Netherlands Antilles and CARICOM, the barriers to trade between the two groups of countries and the requirements for increasing trade between the two groups of countries. The Consultant was given an initial Draft Terms of Reference (Annex 1) with the intention of modifying it in the course of the interviews with all the stakeholders. The main idea that emerged from these interviews was a concern with some possible form of association with CARICOM. The Consultant was asked to exam the costs and benefits of various forms of association and to recommend an option. This adjustment of the Terms of Reference (TOR) was substantial and involved the Consultant having to do some interviews and collect documentation in CARICOM. The study essentially revolves around the search for a road map for the Netherlands Antilles. It is tackled in the first instance by describing the existing system of trade of the Netherlands Antilles with a view to determining the import and export structures and the specific nature and extent of trade in goods and services between the Netherlands Antilles and CARICOM. 1 Netherlands Antilles: Elements of a Strategy for Economic Recovery and Sustainable Growth. Interim Report of the World Bank Mission, 5-20 December 2000. 2 IMF, IMF Country Report No. 01/73 Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands Antilles-Recent Development, Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix. May 2001 3 The Netherlands Antilles is a country within the Kingdom of the Netherlands. It contains five islands. Curacao and Bonaire (Leewards) and St Eustatius, Saba and St Maarten (The Windwards)"

Capital flows to Latin America: second quarter 2003

Includes bibliography

Technologies applied to the transport sector: electronic fare collection systems

Electronic transactions are becoming increasingly commonplace in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, despite the collapse of many dotcom firms and the failure of e-commerce to make inroads in the region. In the transport sphere, the gradual incorporation of technology in support of processes and the exchange of money flows between players has brought greater versatility, security and flexibility. In public transport, such initiatives take the form of automatic ticket machines and prepaid card dispensing machines. In urban transit, electronic purses used for the supervision and payment of parking time, and in road pricing, electronic toll systems streamline the process of collecting money; this is especially the case with motorways and urban concessions. And in shipping, electronic transfers are increasingly being used for the payment of customs dues and port charges.In view of the importance of the topic and the interest expressed in it, the Transport Unit has begun a study of these issues, and recently published a paper entitled Sistemas de cobro electrónico de pasajes en el transporte público, ("Electronic systems for payment of tickets in public transport") LC/L.1752-P/E, July 2002, on which this issue of the Bulletin is based.

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

The external environment has deteriorated sharply as a result of the spiraling financial turmoil, and has led to a weakening in commodity prices and fears of a worldwide recession. Latin America and the Caribbean's fastest expansion in 40 years may be threatened as the global credit crunch makes financing scarce and squeezes demand for the region's commodities. This time around the region is better positioned to weather the crisis than in the past, given improvements in macroeconomic and financial policies as well as a reduced net dependency on external capital inflows. However, Latin American markets are feeling the effects of the crisis through a slowdown in capital inflows, large declines in stock price indexes, significant currency adjustments and an increase in debt spreads. Volatility has soared, with the closely watched Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index moving to an all-time high of 70.33 on October 17, indicating that fear (rather than greed) has been ruling the markets.After reaching record lows in May 2007, emerging markets bond spreads are now above pre-Asian crisis levels. The JPMorgan EMBI+ Latin American composite widened by 146 basis points in the third quarter, with spreads reaching 448 basis points at the end of September. Spreads have widened sharply in recent weeks as foreign investors cut back regional exposure for the safety of U.S. Treasuries. The ongoing lack of liquidity and subsequent liquidation of assets is leading to a collapse in asset prices and a sharp widening in spreads. Daily spreads in October have risen to levels not seen since December 2002, making it much more difficult for governments that need financing to get it. Risk premiums for Latin corporates and sovereigns have risen substantially, but have remained well below U.S. junk (high-yield) bonds. Latin corporates are facing a steep rise in foreign exchange borrowing costs (although less than firms in other emerging markets), which raises concerns that refinancing risks will climb.So far, emerging markets vulnerabilities have been more focused on corporates, as sovereigns have improved public debt dynamics and countries' financing needs are under control. Market performance has been driven by the rapid deterioration of emerging markets bank and corporate market, as well as ongoing losses in emerging markets equities. From January to September 2008, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Latin American Index lost almost 28%, while the Emerging Markets Index lost 37% and the G-7 Index lost 24%. While in 2007 the Latin America component gained 47%, almost nine times as much as the MSCI-G7 index for developed markets, since mid-September 2008 stocks in Latin America have been doing worse than stocks in developed countries, as concerns about access to credit and the adverse impact of sharp falls in commodity prices and in local currencies contribute to increased risk aversion and to outflows of capital. Many governments in the region have used revenue from the commodity boom to pay down debt and build reserves. Now, facing a global financial crisis and the threat of recession in developed countries, the biggest question for Latin America is how long and deep this cyclical downturn will be, and how much it is going to reduce commodity prices. Prices for commodities such as soy, gold, copper and oil, which helped fund the region's boom, have fallen 28% since their July 2 high, according to the RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index. According to Morgan Stanley (in a September 29 report), should prices return to their 10-year average, Latin America's balanced budgets would quickly revert to a deficit of 4.1% of GDP. As risk aversion increases, investors are rapidly pulling out massive amounts of money, creating problems for local markets and banks. There is an ongoing shortage of dollars (as investors liquidate assets in Latin American markets), and as currencies depreciate, inflation concerns increase despite the global slowdown. In Brazil and Mexico, central banks deployed billions of dollars of reserves to stem steep currency declines, as companies in these countries, believing their local currencies would continue to strengthen against the U.S. dollar, took debts in dollars. Some companies also made bets using currency derivatives that have led to losses in the billions of dollars. Dramatic currency swings have caused heavy losses for many companies, from Mexico's cement giant Cemex SAB to the Brazilian conglomerate Grupo Votorantim. Mexico's third-largest retailer, Controladora Comercial Mexicana, declared bankruptcy recently after reporting huge losses related to exchange rate bets. As concerns about corporate exposure to dollar-denominated derivatives increases, yields on bonds issued by many of Brazil's and Mexico's leading companies have started to rise, sharply raising the cost of issuing new debt. Latin American external debt issuance came to a halt in the third quarter of 2008, totaling only US$ 690 million. The cost of obtaining loans for capital expenditures, M&A and debt refinancing is also rising substantially for Latin American corporates amid contagion from the U.S. financial crisis. According to bankers, a protracted trend of shortening tenors and widening spreads has intensified in the past few weeks, indicating that bank lending is quickly following the way of bonds and equity. Finally, money transfers from Latin American migrants are expected to decline for the first time this decade, as a result of economic downturns in the U.S. and Spain, inflation and a weaker dollar. The Mexican Central Bank announced that money transfers from Mexicans living in the U.S. dropped a record 12.2% in August. In 2008, migrants from the region will send some 1.7% less in remittances year-on-year when adjusted for inflation, according to the IADB, compounding the adverse effects of the deepening financial turmoil.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in the Turks and Caicos Islands

The best description of water resources for Grand Turk was offered by Pérez Monteagudo (2000) who suggested that rain water was insufficient to ensure a regular water supply although water catchment was being practised and water catchment possibilities had been analysed. Limestone islands, mostly flat and low lying, have few possibilities for large scale surface storage, and groundwater lenses exist in very delicate equilibrium with saline seawater, and are highly likely to collapse due to sea level rise, improper extraction, drought, tidal waves or other extreme event. A study on the impact of climate change on water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands is a challenging task, due to the fact that the territory of the Islands covers different environmental resources and conditions, and accurate data are lacking. The present report is based on collected data wherever possible, including grey data from several sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Cuban meteorological service data sets. Other data were also used, including the author’s own estimates and modelling results. Although challenging, this was perhaps the best approach towards analysing the situation. Furthermore, IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios were used in the present study in an effort to reduce uncertainty. The main conclusion from the scenario approach is that the trend observed in precipitation during the period 1961 - 1990 is decreasing. Similar behaviour was observed in the Caribbean region. This trend is associated with meteorological causes, particularly with the influence of the North Atlantic Anticyclone. The annual decrease in precipitation is estimated to be between 30-40% with uncertain impacts on marine resources. After an assessment of fresh water resources in Turks and Caicos Islands, the next step was to estimate residential water demand based on a high fertility rate scenario for the Islands (one selected from four scenarios and compared to countries having similar characteristics). The selected scenario presents higher projections on consumption growth, enabling better preparation for growing water demand. Water demand by tourists (stopover and excursionists, mainly cruise passengers) was also obtained, based on international daily consumption estimates. Tourism demand forecasts for Turks and Caicos Islands encompass the forty years between 2011 and 2050 and were obtained by means of an Artificial Neural Networks approach. for the A2 and B2 scenarios, resulting in the relation BAU>B2>A2 in terms of tourist arrivals and water demand levels from tourism. Adaptation options and policies were analysed. Resolving the issue of the best technology to be used for Turks and Caicos Islands is not directly related to climate change. Total estimated water storage capacity is about 1, 270, 800 m3/ year with 80% capacity load for three plants. However, almost 11 desalination plants have been detected on Turks and Caicos Islands. Without more data, it is not possible to estimate long term investment to match possible water demand and more complex adaptation options. One climate change adaptation option would be the construction of elevated (30 metres or higher) storm resistant water reservoirs. The unit cost of the storage capacity is the sum of capital costs and operational and maintenance costs. Electricity costs to pump water are optional as water should, and could, be stored for several months. The costs arising for water storage are in the range of US$ 0.22 cents/m3 without electricity costs. Pérez Monteagudo (2000) estimated water prices at around US$ 2.64/m3 in stand points, US$ 7.92 /m3 for government offices, and US$ 13.2 /m3for cistern truck vehicles. These data need to be updated. As Turks and Caicos Islands continues to depend on tourism and Reverse Osmosis (RO) for obtaining fresh water, an unavoidable condition to maintaining and increasing gross domestic product(GDP) and population welfare, dependence on fossil fuels and vulnerability to increasingly volatile prices will constitute an important restriction. In this sense, mitigation supposes a synergy with adaptation. Energy demand and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) were also estimated using an emissions factor of 2. 6 tCO2/ tonne of oil equivalent (toe). Assuming a population of 33,000 inhabitants, primary energy demand was estimated for Turks and Caicos Islands at 110,000 toe with electricity demand of around 110 GWh. The business as usual (BAU), as well as the mitigation scenarios were estimated. The BAU scenario suggests that energy use should be supported by imported fossil fuels with important improvements in energy efficiency. The mitigation scenario explores the use of photovoltaic and concentrating solar power, and wind energy. As this is a preliminary study, the local potential and locations need to be identified to provide more relevant estimates. Macroeconomic assumptions are the same for both scenarios. By 2050, Turks and Caicos Islands could demand 60 m toe less than for the BAU scenario.

The CARIFORUM-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA): an assessment of issues relating to market access, safeguards and implications for regional integration

The recent collapse of the Doha round once again underscores the tenuous nature of international trade negotiations. Likewise, the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the CARIFORUM grouping and the European Union (EU) has generated a great deal of discussion and debate over the past several months. What has clearly emerged is the existence of two diametrically opposed views on the impact and usefulness of the agreement. One view has it that the EPA is a major breakthrough in trade relations that will greatly benefit the region. On the other hand, some see it as being detrimental to the region and perhaps a total capitulation to the EU on the part of the CARIFORUM. They assert that it is part of a global EU strategy to impose World Trade Organization (WTO) policies on developing nations and get around the Doha obstacles. Both sides in this debate attempt to back up their views with reference to the text of the agreement. The objective of this review is to shed some light on the issues driving this debate particularly in the areas of market access, the impact on tariff revenues, and the implications for regional integration. This review also attempts to clarify and distill some of the main contentious issues regarding the EPA and to inform further discussion regarding an implementation plan. The approach is based on detailed study of the EPA text and its annexes plus extensive interviews with some of the main negotiators on the CARIFORUM side. Interviews were conducted both in person and via the Internet as many of the regional negotiators live or work outside of the region. The reviewer also attended presentations and discussions with some of the leading regional critics of the agreement.