4 resultados para Augmented Lagrangians

em Comissão Econômica para a América Latina e o Caribe (CEPAL)


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Includes bibliography

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This document provides an overview of the most relevant developments in United States trade policy relating to Latin America and the Caribbean in 2002. U.S. policy continued to promote trade liberalization through advancing negotiations on multiple fronts- globally (WTO), regionally (FTAA) and bilaterally or sub regionally- with a view that the various negotiations are mutually reinforcing and seek to create a constructive competition for liberalization" among trade partners. The passage of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) included in the Trade Act of August 2002 enhanced the U.S. Administration's ability to negotiate trade agreements. It provided an impetus to conclude bilateral negotiations with Chile as well as to advance a number of trade agreements currently under negotiation, including negotiations toward the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) and bilateral negotiations with Central America. The Trade Act also renewed the Generalized System of Preferences, extended the Caribbean Trade Partnership Act by liberalizing apparel provisions and augmented the Andean Trade Preference Act, increasing the list of duty free products. On the multilateral front, in partial fulfillment of the Doha mandate, the U.S. tabled in 2002 two comprehensive proposals for the reduction of trade barriers on agricultural and non-agricultural goods. Along with these trade liberalizing proposals, the U.S. Administration imposed temporary safeguard measures on key steel products to provide relief to the sectors of the steel industry that have been most affected by import surges. In addition, the U.S. Congress passed the 2002 Farm Security and Rural Investment Act that substantially increased U.S. domestic farm subsidies to shield domestic farm producers from competition from subsidized products from abroad."

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The main aim of this study is to estimate the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A typical tourism demand function, with tourist arrivals as the dependent variable, is used in the analysis. To establish the baseline, the period under analysis is 1989-2007 and the independent variables are destination country GDP per capita and consumer price index, source country GDP, oil prices to proxy transportation costs between source and destination countries. At this preliminary stage the climate variables are used separately to augment the tourism demand function to establish a relationship, if any, among the variables. Various econometric models (single OLS models for each country, pooled regression, GMM estimation and random effects panel models) were considered in an attempt to find the best way to model the data. The best fit for the data (1989-2007) is the random effects panel data model augmented by both climate variables, i.e. temperature and precipitation. Projections of all variables in the model for the 2008-2100 period were done using forecasting techniques. Projections for the climate variables were undertaken by INSMET. The cost of climate change to the tourism sector was estimated under three scenarios: A2, B2 and BAU (the mid-point of the A2 and B2 scenarios). The estimated costs to tourism for the Caribbean subregion under the three scenarios are all very high and ranges from US$43.9 billion under the B2 scenario to US$46.3 billion under the BAU scenario.