United States Trade Developments 2012-2013

Includes bibliography.

Logistics and trade facilitation between CARICOM and Central America

Includes bibliography.

CEPAL Review no.88

Celso Furtado’s contributions to structuralism and their relevance today / Ricardo Bielschowsky. -- Has investor protection been rendered obsolete by the Argentine crisis? / Michael Mortimore and Leonardo Stanley. -- The rights-based approach in development policies and strategies / Victor Abramovich. -- Can the Latin American and Caribbean countries emulate the Irish model of FDI attraction? / Ruth Rios-Morales and David O’Donovan. -- The slow comeback of industrial policies in Latin America and the Caribbean / Wilson Peres. -- A low-growth model: informality as a structural constraint / Mario Cimoli, Annalisa Primi and Maurizio Pugno. -- The Argentine labour market in a financially globalized world / Mario Damill and Roberto Frenkel. -- Social precarity in Mexico and Argentina: trends, manifestations and national trajectories / María Cristina Bayón. -- The Fiscal Covenant in Guatemala: lessons learned from the negotiations / Juan Alberto Fuentes K. and Maynor Cabrera. -- Changes in Chile’s production structure, 1986-1996: output and industrial interdependence / José Miguel Albala-Bertrand. -- Guidelines for contributors to the CEPAL Review. -- CEPAL Review on the Internet. -- Recent ECLAC publications.

Panorama da Inserção Internacional da América Latina e Caribe 2013: Lenta pós-crise, meganegociações comerciais e cadeias de valor: o espaço de ação regional. Documento informativo

A edição 2013 do Panorama da inserção internacional da América Latina e Caribe, intitulado “Lenta pós-crise, meganegociações comerciais e cadeias de valor: o espaço de ação regional”, se divide em três capítulos. O primeiro capítulo revisa os principais traços da persistente debilidade que mostram a economia e o comércio mundial. Em seguida, se examina a evolução e as perspectivas do comércio mundial e regional. No segundo capítulo faz-se um exame das principais transformações da organização da produção e do comércio mundial associadas ao fenômeno das redes internacionais de produção, que estão na raiz das atuais negociações megarregionais. À continuação se revisam três processos de particular importância: o Acordo Transatlântico sobre Comércio e Investimento entre os Estados Unidos e a União Europeia; o Acordo de Associação Transpacífico, que inclui 12 países de América Latina, América do Norte, Ásia e Oceania; e a Associação Econômica Integral Regional, que reúne dez países membros da Associação de Nações do Sudeste Asiático (ASEAN), Austrália, China, Índia, Japão, Nova Zelândia e República da Coreia. O capítulo III analisa a participação dos países da América Latina e do Caribe em redes internacionais de produção e cadeias de valor.

Integration in Latin America - Trends and Challenges

Regional trade agreements have had a significant presence in the design of international and productive policies in Latin American and Caribbean countries since the early 1950s. Fifty years later, the region has not reached the degree of economic inter-relation found, for instance, in Western Europe, but the concern with promoting regional integration has been a tradition in an impressive amount of speeches and declarations by policy makers in the last decades. The weakening of multilateral negotiations and the multiplicity of bilateral agreements with countries in other regions might affect regional trade both via trade diversion and through investment decisions, considering a larger time horizon. International capital movement might affect exchange rates and output growth, hence influencing trade. At the same time the need for new, broader negotiating agenda, from simply dealing with trade issues to taking into consideration topics not directly related to trade but rather to competition, labour standards, environmental issues and others increase the difficulties in designing integration strategies. Even more so if the group of countries that aim at integrating their economies present markedly different characteristics. This article – an extension of a presentation made at the German Development Institute Conference on Regional Economic Integration Beyond Europe held in Bonn in December, 2007 - discusses these and other aspects related to regional integration in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Revista de la CEPAL no.56

Democracia y desarrollo / Femando H. Cardoso. -- ¿Es posible crecer con equidad? / Joseph Ramos. -- Estabilidad y estructura: Interacciones en el crecimiento económico / José María Fanelli y Roberto Frenkel. -- Reforma a los sistemas de pensiones en América Latina / Andras Vthoff. -- Tendencias económicas en China: significado para el comercio con América Latina y el Caribe / Mikio Kuwayama. -- El Intercambio económico entre América Latina y las economías dinámicas dé Asia / Ronald Sprout. -- La relación económica entre la América Latina y la Unión Europea / Roberto Smith Perera. -- Nuevas Implicaciones de las reglas de origen / Eduardo Gitli. -- Globalización y reestructuración energética en América Latina / Femando Sánchez Albavera. -- El caleidoscopio de la competitividad / Geraldo Mailer. -- La privatización de los servicios públicos del agua / Miguel Solones. -- ¿Cuánto se puede gastar en educación? / Guillermo Labarca. -- Mujeres y migrantes: desigualdades en el mercado laboral de Santiago de Chile / Ivonne Szasz.

CEPAL Review no.56

Democracy and development / Fernando H. Cardoso. -- Can growth and equity go hand in hand? / Joseph Ramos. -- Stability and structure: interactions in economic growth / José Maria Fanelli and Roberto Frenkel. -- Pension system reform in Latin America / Andras Uthoff. -- Recent economic trends in China and their implications for trade with Latin America and the Caribbean / Mikio Kuwayama. -- Economic relations between Latin America and the high-performing Asian developing economies / Ronald Sprout. -- Economic relations between Latin America and the European Union / Roberto Smith Perera. -- Rules of origin: new implications / Eduardo Gitli. -- Globalization and restructuring the energy sector in Latin America / Femando Sánchez Albavera. -- The kaleidoscope of competitiveness / Geraldo Müller. -- The privatization of public water utilities / Miguel Solones. -- How much can we spend on education? / Guillermo Labarca. -- Women and migrants: inequalities in the labour market of Santiago, Chile / Ivonne Szasz.

Report of the roundtable: towards development of a climate change policy for the Caribbean

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, in collaboration with the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Secretariat through the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC), convened a meeting of technical experts working in the field of economics and climate change. The main objective of the meeting was to present the results of studies that were conducted under the project, “Understanding the Potential Economic Impact of Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean”. These presentations were expected to sensitize the experts to the costs of the impacts of climate change in different development scenarios and also present the costs of adaptative and mitigative strategies to 2100. It was expected that discussions of the presentation would inform the preparation of a subregional climate change policy through an examination of the existing Regional Climate Change Framework for Building Resilience. Discussions were also intended to focus on updating participants on the upcoming negotiations for the new Kyoto Protocol that would take place in Mexico in November 2010. The meeting took the form of presentations by relevant experts followed by discussions. Each discussion segment resulted in recommendations that would inform development of the policy. The meeting was held at the ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago, on 30 June 2010.

Evaluation report of the training workshop on the use of the module to analyse growth of international commerce (Magic Plus) and the competitive analysis of nations (TRADECAN 2009) software

The aim of the workshop was to provide a functional overview of the software package, to enable participants to use the software in order to inform more evidence-based trade strategies, and build capacity for researchers and trade negotiators to provide more rigorous, analytical policy research to inform future trade negotiations. Participants came from the ministries of trade of the following CDCC member countries: Dominica, Grenada, Jamaica, Saint Lucia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Trinidad and Tobago. Representatives of the following regional institutions were represented: the Caribbean Community/Caribbean Regional Negotiating Mechanism (CARICOM/CRNM); the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS); the University of Guyana, University of Suriname and the University of the West Indies (UWI). It was hoped the workshop would be a stepping stone towards more advanced trade analysis training. The list of participants appears as Annex I.

Report of the expert group meeting on the CARIFORUM-EU Economic Pertnership Agreement

On 15 October 2008, the European Union (EU) and the CARIFORUM Group of Countries – the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and the Dominican Republic – assembled in Barbados to commemorate the beginning of a new chapter in their economic relationship by signing the CARIFORUM-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) after four and a half years of negotiation. In signing the Agreement, a joint declaration was also issued calling for a comprehensive, five-yearly review of the Agreement in order to determine its impact, including the costs and consequences of its implementation. During negotiations between the parties to the Agreement, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean undertook several studies directed at examining the implications of the EPA for the region as well as informing the process for the preparation of an implementation plan for CARIFORUM. The possible gender implications were also considered in collaboration with the United Nations Development Fund for Women (UNIFEM).

The CARIFORUM-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA): an assessment of issues relating to market access, safeguards and implications for regional integration

The recent collapse of the Doha round once again underscores the tenuous nature of international trade negotiations. Likewise, the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the CARIFORUM grouping and the European Union (EU) has generated a great deal of discussion and debate over the past several months. What has clearly emerged is the existence of two diametrically opposed views on the impact and usefulness of the agreement. One view has it that the EPA is a major breakthrough in trade relations that will greatly benefit the region. On the other hand, some see it as being detrimental to the region and perhaps a total capitulation to the EU on the part of the CARIFORUM. They assert that it is part of a global EU strategy to impose World Trade Organization (WTO) policies on developing nations and get around the Doha obstacles. Both sides in this debate attempt to back up their views with reference to the text of the agreement. The objective of this review is to shed some light on the issues driving this debate particularly in the areas of market access, the impact on tariff revenues, and the implications for regional integration. This review also attempts to clarify and distill some of the main contentious issues regarding the EPA and to inform further discussion regarding an implementation plan. The approach is based on detailed study of the EPA text and its annexes plus extensive interviews with some of the main negotiators on the CARIFORUM side. Interviews were conducted both in person and via the Internet as many of the regional negotiators live or work outside of the region. The reviewer also attended presentations and discussions with some of the leading regional critics of the agreement.

Review of CARIFORUM-EU EPA in development cooperation and WTO compatability

The Cotonou Agreement which succeeded the Lomé IV Agreement and was signed in Cotonou in June 2000 established a comprehensive framework to govern social, economic and political relations between the Africa, Caribbean, Pacific (ACP) grouping and the European Union (EU). At the centre of the partnership are objectives relating to economic development, the reduction and eventual eradication of poverty, and the smooth and gradual integration of ACP States into the world economy. In order to accomplish these objectives, the Cotonou Agreement provides for the conclusion between the ACP and the EU of “new World Trade Organization (WTO) compatible trading arrangements, removing progressively barriers to trade between them and enhancing cooperation in all areas relevant to trade” (Article 36.1). The conclusion of economic partnership agreements (EPAs) represented one way to achieve a WTO compatible instrument and had to be negotiated during the period starting from September 2002 until 31 December 2007 to replace the trade provisions of the Cotonou Agreement. After three and half years of negotiations, CARIFORUM and the European Commission (EC) finally concluded a comprehensive EPA with the EC on 16 December 2007 when an Agreement was initialed. The EPA Parties agreed to sign it later after a review of the provisions at both the national and regional levels. In CARIFORUM, various comments have been made from governments, Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), the private sector and the labour movement about the strengths and weaknesses of the EPA. This review comes in this context and is confined to the development cooperation provisions and the question of WTO compatibility and consistency with the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) negotiations and existing WTO provisions on special and differential treatment.

Pricing and spread components at the Lima Stock Exchange

This paper analyses three aspects of the share market operated by the Lima Stock Exchange: (i) the short-term relationship between the pricing, direction and volume of order flows; (ii) the components of the spread and the equilibrium point of the limit order book per share, and (iii) the pricing, order direction and trading volume dynamic resulting from shocks in the same variables when lagged. The econometric results for intraday data from 2012 show that the short-run dynamic of the most and least liquid shares in the General Index of the Lima Stock Exchange is explained by the direction of order flow, whose price impact is temporary in both cases.

Globalización, integración y comercio inclusivo en América Latina. Textos seleccionados 2010-2014

En el actual contexto de globalización económica, el tema de la inserción internacional de la región cobra una renovada importancia. La presente publicación, la segunda de la colección “Páginas Selectas de la CEPAL”, contiene extractos de documentos publicados desde 2010 y que abordan diversos aspectos de dicha temática. Entre éstos se destacan la participación regional en las cadenas mundiales y regionales de valor, la irrupción de China como un socio comercial crecientemente influyente, los logros y desafíos pendientes del proceso de integración regional en su vertiente económica y comercial, y las posibles implicancias para América Latina y el Caribe de las negociaciones comerciales megarregionales actualmente en curso. Como trasfondo de todos los textos seleccionados se encuentra el vínculo entre la participación regional en el comercio internacional y el logro de un crecimiento inclusivo. Este último se entiende como un crecimiento capaz de contribuir a la reducción de la heterogeneidad estructural mediante un aumento del empleo, la productividad y el ingreso, mejorando el bienestar de la mayoría y reduciendo la desigualdad

Climate change and carbon markets: implications for developing countries

While the Kyoto Protocol provided a framework for reducing the greenhouse gas emissions of industrialized nations, current climate change negotiations envisage future commitments for major co2 emitters among developing countries. This document uses an updated version of the gtap-e general equilibrium model to analyse the economic implications of reducing carbon emissions under different carbon trading scenarios. The participation of developing countries such as China and India would reduce emissions trading costs. Impacts in Latin America would depend on whether a country is an energy exporter or importer and whether the United States reduces emissions. Welfare impacts might be negative depending on the carbon trading scheme adopted and a country’s trading partners.