The impact of climate change on the macroeconomy in the Caribbean

In this study, an attempt is made to assess the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A methodological approach proposed by Dell et al. (2008) is used in preference to the traditional Integrated Assessment Models. The evolution of climate variables and of the macroeconomy of each of the nine countries over the period 1970 to 2006 is analyzed and preliminary evidence of a relationship between the macroeconomy and climate change is examined. The preliminary investigation uses correlation, Granger causality and simple regression methods. The preliminary evidence suggests that there is some relationship but that the direction of causation between the macroeconomy and the climate variables is indeterminate. The main analysis involves the use of a panel data (random effects) model which fits the historical data (1971-2007) very well. Projections of economic growth from 2008 to 2099 are done on the basis of four climate scenarios: the International Panel on Climate Change A2, B2, a hybrid A2B2 (the mid-point of A2 and B2), and a ‘baseline’ or ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, which assumes that the growth rate in the period 2008-2099 is the same as the average growth rate over the period 1971-2007. The best average growth rate is under the B2 scenario, followed by the hybrid A2B2 and A2 scenarios, in that order. Although negative growth rates eventually dominate, they are largely positive for a long time. The projections all display long-run secular decline in growth rates notwithstanding short-run upward trends, including some very sharp ones, moving eventually from declining positive rates to negative ones. The costs associated with the various scenarios are all quite high, rising to as high as a present value (2007 base year) of US$14 billion in 2099 (constant 1990 prices) for the B2 scenario and US$21 billion for the BAU scenario. These costs were calculated on the basis of very conservative estimates of the cost of environmental degradation. Mitigation and adaptation costs are likely to be quite high though a small fraction of projected total investment costs.

Review of the economics of climate change (RECC) in the Caribbean project: Phase I climate change profiles in select Caribbean countries

These reports are the result of consultations which were conducted in 2008 in Aruba, Barbados, Netherlands Antilles, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. The objective was to obtain relevant information that would inform a Stern-type report where the economics of climate change would be examined for the Caribbean subregion. These reports will be complimented by future assessments of the costs of the “business as usual”, adaptation and mitigation responses to the potential impacts of climate change. It is anticipated that the information contained in each country report would provide a detailed account of the environmental profile and would, therefore, provide an easy point of reference for policymakers in adapting existing policy or in formulating new ones. ECLAC continues to be available to the CDCC countries to provide technical support in the area of sustainable development.

The impact of climate change on the water sector in the Caribbean

This study econometrically analyses the projected impact of climate change on the water sector of nine Caribbean countries to 2100: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Montserrat, Jamaica, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia, and Trinidad and Tobago. Overall, all countries, with the exception of Trinidad and Tobago, are expected to suffer aggregate losses as result of climate change in the early periods ca. 2020 under one or more scenarios. Over time, some countries experience declining negative impacts, as in the case of Guyana under the B2 scenario. Some countries, such as the Dominican Republic, is projected to suffer increasing losses under the B2 scenario and, for others, the impacts do not follow a defined trend. The A2 scenario offers the best outcome for all countries, except Jamaica (where BAU is most desirable), Montserrat (which performs most poorly under the A2 scenario), and the Netherlands Antilles, which does best under the B2 case. Overall, relative to 2006, the total demand for water in the Caribbean is expected to fall by 2030 by 11.3% to approximately 12,967 million cubic meters. This is due to the expected fall in agricultural water demand by approximately 36% in that period. However, by 2050, total water demand for the Caribbean will again exceed the 2006 level by approximately 4% to 14,896.33 106 m3. By 2100, water demand will increase almost fivefold to approximately 69,233.69 106 m3. Climate change is expected to affect all countries in the Caribbean. In some cases, there will be positive impacts that may continue to increase over time and, in other cases, the impact will be negative and worsen over time. Overall, the agricultural sector is expected to suffer the worst losses over any scenario, whilst growth in the industrial sectors is expected to be significant and contribute the most to increasing water demand over time.

Caribbean regional report for the five-year review of the Mauritius strategy for the further implementation of the Barbados Programme of Action for the sustainable development of small island developing states (MSI +5)

The small island developing States (SIDS) of the Caribbean referred to in this report comprise Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cuba, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, The Netherlands Antilles, Trinidad and Tobago and the United States Virgin Islands. As far back as 1994, these countries expressed commitment to implementation of the Barbados Programme of Action (BPoA) for SIDS and have reiterated their support in making progress in achieving the targets set out in the Mauritius Strategy for further implementation of the Barbados Programme of Action for the Sustainable Development of SIDS (MSI).

Report of the expert group meeting on the CARIFORUM-EU Economic Pertnership Agreement

On 15 October 2008, the European Union (EU) and the CARIFORUM Group of Countries – the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and the Dominican Republic – assembled in Barbados to commemorate the beginning of a new chapter in their economic relationship by signing the CARIFORUM-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) after four and a half years of negotiation. In signing the Agreement, a joint declaration was also issued calling for a comprehensive, five-yearly review of the Agreement in order to determine its impact, including the costs and consequences of its implementation. During negotiations between the parties to the Agreement, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean undertook several studies directed at examining the implications of the EPA for the region as well as informing the process for the preparation of an implementation plan for CARIFORUM. The possible gender implications were also considered in collaboration with the United Nations Development Fund for Women (UNIFEM).

Tourism life cycle, tourism competitiveness and upgrading strategies in the Caribbean

In the 1980s Butler adapted the life cycle product model to the tourism industry and created the “Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) model”. The model recognizes six stages in the tourism product life cycle: exploration, investment, development, consolidation, stagnation and followed, after stagnation, by decline or revitalization of the product. These six stages can in turn be regrouped into four main stages. The Butler model has been applied to more than 30 country cases with a wide degree of success. De Albuquerque and Mc Elroy (1992) applied the TALC model to 23 small Caribbean island States in the 1990s. Following De Albuquerque and Mc Elroy, the TALC is applied to the 32 member countries of the Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO) (except for Cancun and Cozumel) to locate their positions along their tourism life-cycle in 2007. This is done using the following indicators: the evolution of the level, market share and growth rate of stay-over arrivals; the growth rate and market share of visitor expenditures per arrival and the tourism styles of the destinations, differentiating between ongoing mass tourism and niche marketing strategies and among upscale, mid-scale and low-scale destinations. Countries have pursued three broad classes of strategies over the last 15 years in order to move upward in their tourism life cycle and enhance their tourism competitiveness. There is first a strategy that continues to rely on mass-tourism to build on the comparative advantages of “sun, sand and sea”, scale economies, all-inclusive packages and large amounts of investment to move along in Stage 2 or Stage 3 (Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico). There is a second strategy pursued mainly by very small islands that relies on developing specific niche markets to maintain tourism competitiveness through upgrading (Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, British Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos), allowing them to move from Stage 2 to Stage 3 or Stage 3 to a rejuvenation stage. There is a third strategy that uses a mix of mass-tourism, niche marketing and quality upgrading either to emerge onto the intermediate stage (Trinidad and Tobago); avoid decline (Aruba, The Bahamas) or rejuvenate (Barbados, Jamaica and the United States Virgin Islands). There have been many success stories in Caribbean tourism competitiveness and further research should aim at empirically testing the determinants of tourism competitiveness for the region as a whole.

Implementation of the 2014-2015 programme of work: subprogramme 13: subregional activities in the Caribbean

This report highlights the activities carried out by ECLAC in the Caribbean subregion between 1 January 2014 and 31 March 2015. Subprogramme 13 of the ECLAC programme of work 2014-2015 (“Subregional activities in the Caribbean”) covers the Commission’s work in Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cuba, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago, as well as Anguilla, Aruba, the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Curaçao, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Montserrat, Puerto Rico, Sint Maarten, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the United States Virgin Islands. Subprogramme 12 (“Subregional activities in Central America, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Mexico”) includes activities conducted in the Caribbean member States of Cuba, the Dominican Republic and Haiti. In addition, countries of the Caribbean were included in activities organized under the 12 other substantive subprogrammes of the ECLAC programme of work 2014-2015, namely: (i) linkages with the global economy, integration and regional cooperation; (ii) production and innovation; (iii) macroeconomic policies and growth; (iv) financing for development; (v) social development and equality; (vi) mainstreaming the gender perspective in regional development; (vii) population and development; (viii) sustainable development and human settlements; (ix) natural resources and infrastructure; (x) planning of public administration; (xi) statistics; and (xii) support for regional and subregional integration and cooperation processes and organizations.

Climate change in Central América: Potential impacts and public policy options

Since 2008 we have supported the collaborative initiative "Economics of Climate Change in Central America" aimed at demonstrating the impacts of climate variability and change and fostering a discussion on public policies in key sectors. The initiative has been led by the Ministries of Environment and Treasury or Finance of Central America, with the support of their ministerial councils, CCAD, COSEFIN, and Economic Integration Secretariat, SIECA. The Ministries of Agriculture and of Health, with their councils, CAC and COMISCA, have also joined the effort; and the Dominican Republic came on board in 2015.

Notas sobre la economía y el desarrollo de América Latina Año 1969 N° 16

América Latina en cifras.-- Nicaragua.-- Paraguay.-- República Dominicana.-- Perú.-- Uruguay.-- Venezuela.-- Panamá

The cost of hunger: Social and economic impact of child undernutrition in the Plurinational State of Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay and Peru

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) jointly with the World Program of Food (WFP) and recognized experts of the region developed a methodology that, using secondary information, estimate the opportunity cost derived from undernutrition. This methodology has been successfully applied in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama and the Dominican Republic, where the cost of undernutrition was estimated at 6.7 billion dollars in 2004. The present study covers four countries in South America: Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay and Peru. The results indicate that the cost of the malnutrition in these countries reached 4.3 billion dollars in 2005, which is equivalent to 3.3 per cent of the GDP of these countries. The results strongly point out that child undernutrition is not only a problem of health or an unacceptable situation ethically, but it is a national problem, given the enormous social costs and the loss of opportunities that it imposes on the national economy.

Hambre y Derecho a la Alimentación: la agenda 2030 en Centroamérica y la República Dominicana

Al abordar el problema del hambre y la desnutrición, la más reciente Conferencia Regional sobre Desarrollo Social de América Latina y el Caribe organizada por la CEPAL (Lima, Perú, 2 a 4 de noviembre de 2015) puso énfasis en la necesidad de tratar estos asuntos desde la óptica del derecho a la alimentación, establecido en la Declaración Universal de los Derechos Humanos y el Pacto de Derechos Económicos, Sociales y Culturales. En el documento preparatorio de dicha conferencia se señala que el Objetivo 2 de los Objetivos para el Desarrollo Sostenible es relevante en tanto aborda la problemática de la alimentación y la nutrición de una manera más integral y considera la seguridad alimentaria como un derecho humano fundamental, cuya conculcación limita la capacidad de ejercicio de los derechos políticos y el desarrollo de una democracia participativa. En línea con este planteamiento, uno de los objetivos principales de este estudio es conocer el estado del arte que en la subregión ha tenido el enfoque de derechos en las políticas de seguridad alimentaria y nutricional y, en particular, la promoción del derecho humano a la alimentación,

Centroamérica y República Dominicana: evolución económica en 2015 y perspectivas para 2016. Balance preliminar

El presente documento hace un balance preliminar de las economías de Centroamérica y la República Dominicana (CARD) en 2015 y ofrece perspectivas para 2016. Es un análisis de aoyuntura elaborado por la Unidad de Desarrollo Económico de la sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México, con información disponible al 31 de enero de 2016. En primer lugar se analiza el contexto internacional, en particular los eventos que impactan directamente a las economías de CARD. En segundo término, se presentan los rasgos generales de la evolución económica de los países bajo estudio, para, en tercer lugar, hacer un análisis en materia de política fiscal, monetaria, cambiaria y comercial. En cuarto lugar, se estucia la evolución del sector externo y, por último, se analiza la actividad económica, los precios y el empleo.

An assessment of the economic impact of Climate Change on the Macroeconomy in the Caribbean

Between 2008 and 2011, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) worked on a project to assess the economic impact of climate change in the Caribbean. The overall aim is to prepare the Caribbean region to better respond to climate change, while fostering a regional approach to reducing carbon emissions by 2050. This study updates the report on the impact of climate change on the macroeconomy at the regional level and will focus on 9 countries: Aruba, the Bahamas, Barbados, Curacao, the Dominican Republic, Montserrat, Jamaica, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago.

Estadísticas de producción de electricidad de los países del Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana (SICA): datos preliminares a 2015

En este documento se presentan, de manera preliminar, cuadros regionales y nacionales con datos estadísticos de la producción de energía eléctrica de los ocho países que conforman el Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana (SICA): Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panamá, Belice y la República Dominicana. Los primeros seis países han sido agrupados bajo el Sistema de Interconexión Eléctrica de los Países de Centroamérica (SIEPAC), que corresponde al primer mercado eléctrico regional que ha sido constituido en el continente americano. Las referencias a México corresponden a los intercambios y ventas de energía eléctrica que se hacen desde ese país a Guatemala y marginalmente al resto de países del SIEPAC. También se refieren a las ventas de energía eléctrica de México a Belice. El documento contiene información actualizada a 2015 sobre la capacidad instalada y producción de energía eléctrica en cada uno de los países, desglosada por tecnología y resúmenes de operación de los mercados mayoristas y de las transacciones regionales de electricidad. La sección de hechos relevantes describe las principales inversiones realizadas en la región con especial atención en las nuevas plantas generadoras de electricidad, la producción de electricidad por país y fuentes primarias, así como la evolución del mercado eléctrico regional.

Centroamérica y República Dominicana: Evolución económica en 2015 y perspectivas para 2016. Estudio Económico

En el presente documento se analiza la evolución de las economías de Centroamérica (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua y Panamá) y la República Dominicana (CARD) en 2015, con base en cifras oficiales al cierre del año, y ofrece un análisis de los primeros meses de 2016 y perspectivas para el resto del año. Es un estudio de coyuntura, con información disponible al 30 de junio de 2016. En el documento se ofrece una actualización de la versión publicada en febrero de 2016.