100 resultados para Income forecasting


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Incluye bibliografía.

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Includes bibliography

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Includes bibliography.

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The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean is a twice-yearly report prepared jointly by the Economic Development Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the Subregional Office for the South Cone of Latin America of the International Labour Organization (ILO). Strong job creation and wage gains have proved to be a key factors in reducing poverty —quite substantially— in our region over the past decade. Together with the implementation of innovative social policies, the narrowing of wage gaps has played a fundamental role in reducing inequality between households. The success of these two processes —reducing poverty and inequality— count among the most important achievements of this period. In the past few years, however, the fight against poverty has noticeably lost momentum,1 showing the extent to which job creation has been hit by the recent economic slowdown.

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Since the start of the twenty-first century, the Brazilian economy has experienced a growth cycle with characteristics unlike those of its previous historical experience, combining growth, macroeconomic stability and distributive progress. In this context, the study aims to analyse the factors and distributive effects of occupational mobility in Brazil, based on data obtained from the Monthly Employment Survey. The results suggest that: (i) mobility has been used in Brazil as a way to raise wages, even when it involves a drop in socio-occupational status; (ii) nonetheless, the wage increase obtained by changing job or occupational segment is smaller for poorer workers than for wealthier ones; and (iii) consequently, mobility helps to increase income, but it also tends to widen wage gaps.

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This document was prepared for the Latin American and Caribbean Regional Consultation on Financing for Development, held at the headquarters of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) in Santiago, on 12 and 13 March 2015, in preparation for the Third International Conference on Financing for Development (Addis Ababa, July 2015).

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This article analyses the share of total income represented by employment earnings in the countries of Latin America over the last two decades. It first considers the wage share of gross domestic product (gdp) and then adds in the earnings of self-employed workers. The findings indicate that both total wages and total earnings declined as a share of gdp in most of the region’s countries over the period, although there were some exceptions. The reduction in earnings inequality seen over the past decade was not usually accompanied by an increase in the gdp share of earnings. This means that the improvement in personal income distribution was not matched by an improvement in functional distribution.

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This paper discusses the role of institutions and structural change in shaping income inequality. It is argued that while social expenditure and direct redistribution are crucial for improving income distribution, sustainable equality requires structural change to create decent jobs. The relative importance of these variables in different countries is analyzed and a typology suggested. It is argued that the most equal countries in the world combine strong institutions in favor of redistribution and knowledge-intensive production structures that sustain growth and employment in the long run. Both institutions and the production structure in Latin America fail to foster equality and this explains its extremely high levels of inequality. The last decade witnessed significant advances in reducing inequality in Latin America, but these advances are threatened by slow productivity growth and weak structural change.

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By means of a meta-analysis, this article sets out to estimate average values for the income and price elasticities of gasoline demand and to analyse the reasons for the variations in the elasticities reported by the literature. The findings show that there is publication bias, that the volatility of elasticity estimates is not due to sampling errors alone, and that there are systematic factors explaining these differences. The income and price elasticities of gasoline demand differ between the short and long run and by region, and the estimation can appropriately include the vehicle fleet and the prices of substitute goods, the data types and the estimation methods used. The presence of a low price elasticity suggests that a fuel tax will be inadequate to control rising consumption in a context of rapid economic growth.

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The construction and ownership of homes is fundamental to economic development, the generation of wealth and the formation of the middle class. Although a number of studies have been conducted and programmes implemented in recent decades, there remains a significant housing deficit in Paraguay and Latin America, indicating that such programmes have been unsuccessful. For families unable to document a steady income, the main obstacle to homeownership is often financing. This paper aims to demonstrate the economic and financial feasibility —provided there is sufficient political will and coordination between public and private entities— of a project to build 75,000 homes for 300,000 people (4.5% of the Paraguayan population) with middle to low incomes. The median household income in this segment, for which there is a significant shortage of decent housing, is US$ 396.50. A maximum of US$ 63.44 per month may be set aside for housing costs.