The digital economy for structural change and equality

Includes bibliography.

CEPAL Review no. 113

Development then and now: Idea and utopia / Rolando Cordera Campos .-- Latin America’s competitive position in knowledge-intensive services trade / Andrés López, Andrés Niembro and Daniela Ramos .-- Wage share and economic growth in Latin America, 1950-2011 / Germán Alarco Tosoni .-- Patterns of technical progress in the Brazilian economy, 1952-2008 / Adalmir Marquetti and Melody de Campos Soares Porsse .-- Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys / Pilar Poncela, Víctor M. Guerrero, Alejandro Islas, Julio Rodríguez and Rocío Sánchez-Mangas .-- Expectations and industrial output in Uruguay: Sectoral interdependence and common trends / Bibiana Lanzilotta .-- Argentina: Impacts of the child allowance programme on the labour-market behaviour of adults / Roxana Maurizio and Gustavo Vázquez .-- Occupational mobility and income differentials: The experience of Brazil between 2002 and 2010 / Sandro Eduardo Monsueto, Julimar da Silva Bichara and André Moreira Cunha .-- What does the National High School Exam (enem) tell Brazilian society? / Rodrigo Travitzki, Jorge Calero and Carlota Boto .-- Brazil’s Northeast Financing Constitutional Fund: Differentiated effects on municipal economic growth / Fabrício Carneiro Linhares, Ricardo Brito Soares, Marcos Falcão Gonçalves and Luiz Fernando Gonçalves Viana.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Energy Sector in Trinidad and Tobago

The energy sector is a dominant one in Trinidad and Tobago and it plays an important role in the twin-island republic‟s economy. In 2008, the share of the energy sector in gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to approximately 48% while contributing 57% to total Government revenue. In that same year, the sector‟s share of merchandise exports was 88%, made up mainly of refined oil products including petroleum, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, 2009). Trinidad and Tobago is the main exporter of oil in the Caribbean region and the main producer of liquefied natural gas in Latin America and the Caribbean. The role of the country‟s energy sector is, therefore, not limited to serving as the engine of growth for the national economy but also includes providing energy security for the small island developing States of the Caribbean. However, with its hydrocarbon-based economy, Trinidad and Tobago is ranked seventh in the world in terms of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita, producing an estimated 40 million tonnes of CO2 annually. Almost 90% of these CO2 emissions are attributed directly to the energy sector through petrochemical production (56%), power generation (30%) and flaring (3%). Trinidad and Tobago is a ratified signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. Although, as a non-Annex 1 country, Trinidad and Tobago is not required to cut its greenhouse gas emissions under the Protocol, it is currently finalizing a climate change policy document as well as a national energy policy with specific strategies to address climate change. The present study complements the climate change policy document by providing an economic analysis of the impact that climate change could have on the energy sector in Trinidad and Tobago under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change alternative climate scenarios (A2 and B2) as compared to a baseline situation of no climate change. Results of analyses indicate that, in the short-run, climate change, represented by change in temperature, is not a significant determinant of domestic consumption of energy, electricity in particular, in Trinidad and Tobago. With energy prices subsidized domestically and fixed for years at a time, energy price does not play a role in determining electricity demand. Economic growth, as indicated by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is the single major determinant of electricity consumption in the short-run. In the long-run, temperature, GDP, and patterns of electricity use, jointly determine electricity consumption. Variations in average annual temperature due to climate change for the A2 scenario are expected to lead to an increase in electricity consumption per capita, equivalent to an annual increase of 1.07% over the 2011 baseline value of electricity consumption per capita. Under the B2 scenario, the average annual increase in electricity consumption per capita over the 2011 baseline value is expected to be 1.01%. The estimated economic impact of climate change on electricity consumption for the period 2011-2050 is valued at US$ 142.88 million under the A2 scenario and US$ 134.83million under the B2 scenario. These economic impact estimates are equivalent to a loss of 0.737% of 2009 GDP under the A2 climate scenario and a loss of 0.695% of 2009 GDP under the B2 scenario. On the energy supply side, sea level rise and storm surges present significant risks to oil installations and infrastructure at the Petroleum Company of Trinidad and Tobago (PETROTRIN) Pointe-a-Pierre facilities (Singh and El Fouladi, 2006). However, data limitations do not permit the conduct of an economic analysis of the impact of projected sea level rise on oil and gas production.

Proposal on debt for climate adaptation swaps: a strategy for growth and economic transformation of Caribbean economies

ECLAC advocates that the Caribbean’s high debt dilemma was not principally driven by policy missteps, or the international financial crisis. Rather, it finds its roots in external shocks, compounded by the inherent structural weaknesses and vulnerabilities confronting Caribbean SIDS and their limited capacity to respond. A major factor has been the underperformance of the export sector, partly due to a decline in competitiveness and a slowdown in economic activity especially among the tourism-dependent economies. Caribbean countries have also accumulated debt as a consequence of increased expenditures to address the impact of extreme events and climate change attendant difficulties. Most Caribbean countries are located in the hurricane belt and are also prone to earthquakes and other hazards. Indeed, a disaster resulting in damage and losses in excess of 5 per cent of GDP can be expected to hit any Caribbean country every few years. Moreover, over the period 2000-2014, it is estimated that the economic cost of natural disasters in Caribbean countries was in excess of US$30.7 billion. The English Speaking Caribbean countries are extremely vulnerable to natural disasters.

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2016: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the challenges of financing for development

This, the sixty-eighth edition of the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean, which corresponds to the year 2016, consists of three parts. Part I outlines the region’s economic performance in 2015 and analyses trends in the first half of 2016, as well as the outlook for the rest of the year. It examines the external and internal factors influencing the region’s economic performance and highlights some of the macroeconomic policy challenges that have arisen in an external context of weak growth and high levels of uncertainty. Part II analyses the challenges that the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean face at the domestic and international levels in mobilizing financing for development. On the domestic front, slower growth and tighter fiscal restrictions pose significant challenges for the mobilization of resources. Externally, the classification of many of the region’s countries in the middle-income category limits their access to concessional external financing or international support. Part III of this publication may be accessed on the web page of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (www.eclac.org). It contains the notes relating to the economic performance of the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean in 2015 and the first half of 2016, together with their respective statistical annexes. The cut-off date for updating the statistical information in this publication was 30 June 2016.

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2007

Includes bibliography

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2008

Includes bibliography

Foreign Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean 2002

Includes bibliography

Education and knowledge: basic pillars of changing production patterns with social equity

Includes bibliography

Sustainable development: changing production patterns, social equity and the environment

Includes bibliography

Regulation, worker protection and active labour-market policies in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Labour markets, worker protection and lifelong learning in a global economy: experiences and perspectives of Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: summary 2009

Includes bibliography

Opportunities for convergence and regional cooperation: Unity Summit of Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes Bibliography

Structural change for equality: an integrated approach to development. Thirty-four session of ECLAC

Spanish version available