Internal migration in Guatemala during the period 1976-1981 by ethnicity, sex and age

El analisis forma parte del proyecto IMIN, orientado a realizar investigaciones en profundidad sobre la migracion interna a partir de los ultimos censos de poblacion. El enfasis se situa en la descripcion del fenomeno en Guatemala, durante 1976-1981 y la poblacion bajo estudio es aquella nacida en Guatemala que vivio en el pais hasta la fecha del censo y 5 anos antes. Los migrantes son personas cuya residencia habitual en 1981 era distinta de aquella en 1976. Guatemala, Esquintla y El Peten son los departamentos de inmigracion por excelencia por ser la sede de la capital, y por su desarrollo agrario. Las mujeres se dirigen hacia el departamento de Guatemala, independiente del grupo etnico; la migracion es selectiva por edad y los grupos en que se producen los desplazamientos mayores se situan entre 15 y 24 anos. Las migrantes son algo menores que los hombres migrantes y los no indios migran mas que los indios; entre estos ultimos, predominan los hombres.

The impact of climate change on the macroeconomy in the Caribbean

In this study, an attempt is made to assess the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A methodological approach proposed by Dell et al. (2008) is used in preference to the traditional Integrated Assessment Models. The evolution of climate variables and of the macroeconomy of each of the nine countries over the period 1970 to 2006 is analyzed and preliminary evidence of a relationship between the macroeconomy and climate change is examined. The preliminary investigation uses correlation, Granger causality and simple regression methods. The preliminary evidence suggests that there is some relationship but that the direction of causation between the macroeconomy and the climate variables is indeterminate. The main analysis involves the use of a panel data (random effects) model which fits the historical data (1971-2007) very well. Projections of economic growth from 2008 to 2099 are done on the basis of four climate scenarios: the International Panel on Climate Change A2, B2, a hybrid A2B2 (the mid-point of A2 and B2), and a ‘baseline’ or ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, which assumes that the growth rate in the period 2008-2099 is the same as the average growth rate over the period 1971-2007. The best average growth rate is under the B2 scenario, followed by the hybrid A2B2 and A2 scenarios, in that order. Although negative growth rates eventually dominate, they are largely positive for a long time. The projections all display long-run secular decline in growth rates notwithstanding short-run upward trends, including some very sharp ones, moving eventually from declining positive rates to negative ones. The costs associated with the various scenarios are all quite high, rising to as high as a present value (2007 base year) of US$14 billion in 2099 (constant 1990 prices) for the B2 scenario and US$21 billion for the BAU scenario. These costs were calculated on the basis of very conservative estimates of the cost of environmental degradation. Mitigation and adaptation costs are likely to be quite high though a small fraction of projected total investment costs.

Preliminary report on the implementation of the ECLAC work programme subregional activities for the Caribbean. 2008-2009 biennium (Covering the period 1 Janurary 2008- 31 August 2009)

Eighteen months into the implementation of the 2008-2009 biennial strategic work programme, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean continues to focus on strengthening the delivery of activities through regular internal meetings with programme and research staff and consultations with member countries and other partner institutions. The scaling up of efforts advocating for more evidence-based development policy-making is being advanced utilizing the resources provided through the implementation of an additional seven extrabudgetary-funded projects. This effort is being undertaken in collaboration and in consultation with our major international and regional development partners – United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Development Fund for Women (UNIFEM), United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), Caribbean Community (CARICOM), Caribbean Development Bank (CDB), Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), Association of Caribbean States (ACS), Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), World Bank, Department for International Development (DFID), Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC). and others. In

Report on the implementation of the ECLAC work programme subregional activities for the Caribbean 2006-2007 biennium [Covering the period 1 Janurary 2006- 31 December 2007]

The focus of the activities of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean/Caribbean Development and Cooperation Committee (ECLAC/CDCC) secretariat during the 2006-2007 biennium continued to be on assistance to member governments of the subregion with policy-making and development strategies, especially on issues relevant to the promotion of the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of development in the Caribbean. The Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean worked closely with member countries of the CDCC in an effort to ensure the relevance of outputs which would inform policy options. This involved the strengthening of partnerships with both regional and subregional institutions and relevant agencies of the United Nations system working in the Caribbean. A major decision was taken to refocus the operational aspects of the secretariat to ensure that they were relevant to the development goals of its members. This involved the introduction of a thematic approach to the work of the office. One of the changes resulting from this was the restructuring and renaming of the Caribbean Documentation Centre. The Caribbean Knowledge Management Centre (CKMC), as it is now known, has changed its emphasis from organizing and disseminating documents, and is now a more proactive partner in the research undertaken by staff and other users of the service. The CKMC manages the ECLAC website, the public face of the organization. Newsletters and all other documents, including Information and Communications Technology (ICT) profiles of selected countries, prepared by the secretariat, are now available online at the ECLAC/CDCC website www.eclacpos.org . The Caribbean Knowledge Management Portal was launched at a meeting of information specialists in St. Vincent and the Grenadines in 2007. In addition to reaching a wider public, this measure was introduced as a means of reducing the cost of printing or disseminating publications. In spite of the unusually high vacancy rate, at both the international and local levels, during the biennium, the subregional headquarters accomplished 98 per cent of the 119 outputs earmarked for the period. Using vacant positions to carry out the assignments was not an easy task, given the complexity in recruiting qualified and experienced persons for short periods. Nevertheless, consultancy services and short-term replacement staff greatly aided the delivery of these outputs. All the same, 35 work months remained unused during the biennium, leaving 301 work months to complete the outputs. In addition to the unoccupied positions, the work of the subprogramme was severely affected by the rising cost of regional and subregional travel which limited the ability of staff to network and interact with colleagues of member countries. This also hampered the outreach programme carried out mainly through ad hoc expert group meetings. In spite of these shortcomings, the period proved to be successful for the subprogramme as it engaged the attention of member countries in its work either through direct or indirect participation. Staff members completed 36 technical papers plus the reports of the meetings and workshops. A total of 523 persons, representing member countries, participated in the 18 intergovernmental and expert meetings convened by the secretariat in the 24-month period. In its effort to build technical capacity, the subprogramme convened 15 workshops/seminars which offered training for 446 persons.

América Latina: población económicamente activa: período 1970-2000 = Latin America: economically active population: period 1970-2000

Publicación bilingüe (Español e inglés)

América Latina: población por años calendario y edades simples: período 1995-2005 = Latin America: population by calendar years and single ages, period 1995-2005

Publicación bilingüe (Español e inglés)

América Latina: población por años calendario y edades simples: período 1995-2005 = Latin America: population by calendar years and single ages, period 1995-2005

Publicación bilingüe (Español e inglés)

The People’s Republic of China and Latin America: the impact of Chinese economic growth on Latin American exports

The role of the People’s Republic of China in the world economy has grown substantially in recent decades, turning it into a strategic foreign trading partner for much of Latin America. Bilateral trade between the region and China totalled US$ 120 billion in 2009. This study analyses the income elasticity of the region’s exports to the country. The findings show that, assuming real gross domestic product (gdp) growth in China of about 7% a year, the value of Latin American exports to China (at 2005 prices) can be expected to increase by an average of about 10% a year between 2014 and 2019. In a more conservative scenario of 4.5% average annual growth in the Chinese economy over the period, exports would rise by about 7% a year.